Saxo Market Call

Today, another breakdown of the remarkable dispersion in the US market, with few signs that it is ending just yet, while Europe continues to soar on record inflows. FX is deeper in limbo after USD shorts were squeezed - important to see how we close for the week there, especially for EURUSD as we saw a very pale green shoot from the German Manufacturing PMI today for the first time in years. This...

Today, a look at a modest US equity market rally as we wonder whether those pressing recent themes within AI winners vs. AI losers have overextended themselves. In any case, equity technicals look pivotal here, as does the USD and JPY outlook in key pairs, all while we wonder whether markets, outside of the crude oil market itself, are too complacent in continuing to ignore the risk of the outbrea...

Today, continuing to note the wild swings in individual names even as the overall indices look relatively flat on the surface, while wondering whether some of the recent attempts to play the AI winners/losers game has gone too far and if we could see some mean reversion. We run through a number of individual stock stories as well. Over in macro and FX we note the market shifting into limbo mode, w...

Today, we discuss the ongoing "AI Overlay" trade, note another AI-related company that is not a hyperscaler, but is set to spend up to USD 200 billion on capacity expansions in coming years. Elsewhere, we discuss the strength of US treasury and Japans' government bond markets and whether this is contributing to pressure on precious metals. As well, we ponder whether both the US dollar and yen migh...

Today, a look at everyone attempting to put on the "AI overlay" trade and whether this unsettles confidence in the market more broadly, or just deepens recent and very remarkable dispersion in the performance of many sectors. We also note the intense new focus on Walmart, which reports earnings later this week. Elsewhere, a rundown of macro and FX developments after soft US CPI data reported Frida...

Today, strong notes of general concern as yesterday could have marked the beginning of a broader weakening in risk sentiment, which has so far been avoided amidst the wild churn in individual stocks in the US even as the overall index has chopped around within the high end of the range. The worst thing for this market might be a sudden return of high correlation across stocks. Elsewhere, the JPY r...

Today, a look at carnage for additional individual names on AI disruption fears even amidst relative market calm in US equities. Elsewhere, a break down of the US jobs report, going way beyond all of the headlines on the January numbers to indicate how little the wiser we are all on the actual state of the US labor market from this specific report. As well, a look at the chunky further JPY rally a...

Today, we discuss another session marked by notable divergences within the US stock universe, oil markets heading into territory that is starting to look expensive unless geopolitical tensions spill over into actual confrontation, the idea that the best things for gold and silver bulls might be for the price action to just calm down for a while, and the macro backdrop heating up with key US data a...

Today's episode features a very special guest, Peter Garnry, CEO and co-founder of Gesda Capital , as we discuss everything from Novo Nordisk's performance in the wake of its Wegovy pill release to nearly everything AI-adjacent, from the market's rough treatment of software-as-a-service names of late to the outlook for Mag7 stocks and hyperscalers on their massive AI capital spending arms race. We...

Today, a look at the US equity market suffering it first real broad sell-off in a while as nearly everything sold off yesterday, with the negative vibes intensifying after the close on news of Amazon.com's titanic spending plans on AI for the coming year. Elsewhere, crypto suffered one of its worst days ever, unsettling risk sentiment further. Also, a look at macro and FX, especially the wobbles i...

Today, a look at a remarkable downdraft in nearly all AI-adjacent stocks, with no category escaping the selling, even as much of the rest of the market posted a positive and even strong day, the latest in wildly gyrating internals. We try to piece together a takeaway and wonder as well whether the European equity market performance has gotten overcooked. Perspectives on the Bitcoin sell-off, FX an...

Today, while the software-as-a-service disruption concern has been roiling for quite some time for many companies, yesterday's market action saw a massive new acceleration in the negative focus on companies that face a risk from AI disruption as new agentic AI applications come on board - some of them names that had escaped negative attention before. We look at a number of these names, other key m...

Today, a look at global risk appetite in a happy mood as precious metals markets have stabilized and the US manufacturing sector shows its first interesting sign of revival in years. Palantir shareholders were also able to celebrate their "cosmic reward" for sticking with the company as the company reported strong earnings after the close. Disney shareholders had less to celebrate. Elsewhere, the...

Today, we unpack the Friday crash in silver, and to a lesser extent gold, noting that the Kevin Warsh as Fed Chair nominee news was a mere excuse for a market that was already showing signs of total dysfunction, as covered in our Thursday January 29 podcast. Elsewhere, we look at the general contagion of the metals volatility into other markets, including in rates, FX and equities, where we contin...

Today, a thorough rundown of big incoming earnings reports, especially Microsoft (which likely drove much of the volatility in the broader US indices yesterday), but also Meta, Tesla, Apple and others. We also look forward to a busy earnings week next week with two more Mag7 names reporting. Also on today's call, a look at the market reaction to stories that Trump is set to announce today that Kev...

Today, much of the AI "pick and shovels" space is aflame on Meta CapEx plans and other announcements after the latter, Tesla and Microsoft all reported earnings yesterday. The average stock had a weak day yesterday, however, even as the S&P 500 touched 7,000 for the first time. Also, a look at the latest chaotic action in gold and silver prices and how the market is becoming increasingly dysfu...

Today, a look at the focus on FX intensifying after Trump comments blasted an already weak US dollar lower still ahead of today's not-so-anticipated FOMC meeting, given that all market focus for the Fed is on the identity of Trump's nominee to replace Powell in May. More on the yen and other currencies. Also on today's pod, US tech stocks attempting a breakout ahead of key Mag7 earnings incoming,...

Today, we note the flip in US equity market internals while noting what might be driving it ahead of critical Mag7 earnings and as the Nasdaq 100 once again has rallied to a massive resistance area. As well, Japanese yen volatility is only one focus in currencies as the US dollar is heavily on tilt here, while two-way silver volatility has reached almost absurd levels - is that compressing the tim...

Friday gave us a huge signal that the US may be extending Japan a helping hand in preventing further yen weakness - certainly effective for putting a floor on the JPY price from here on out - but how should we read the US dollar on this apparent move? Elsewhere, US natural gas prices are spiking wildly if only for the front contract on the winter storm there and precious metals prices have extende...

Today, markets are happy to have dodged a US-Europe trade war this week, but we consider a few issues (besides the acceleration in high-impact earnings reports next week), or "grenades" that may or may not go off from here: first, whether this winter storm hitting the US could have an impact, among other things, on AI data centres - not in a storm sense, but in a storm of protest sense, second, th...

Markets are rushing higher on the Trump "TACO" on tariffs against European countries and on calling off any military option for the US taking Greenland. We continue to look at massive divergences in market internals. Elsewhere, natural gas has mounted a stunning rally as the US is headed for a natural disaster on a possibly unprecedented geographical scale as an ice storm could cut power to whole...

Today, another rundown of any number of possible outcomes from Davos after Trump touches down to negotiate with or browbeat European counterparts on the Greenland issue, a continued focus on the implications of Japanese policy moves to address instability in its bond market, the Mag7 leading the market lower, and much more. Today's pod hosted by Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy. Fo...

Today, looking at markets in a bad place on concerns for US-Europe relations over Trump's Greenland ambitions, a situation that could fester for global markets even if the European position collapses and there is no major escalation of tariffs or other measures between the two sides. Also, the Japanese government bond market is flashing bright red now after a meltdown in the longest dated JGB's ov...

Markets are nervous as it feels like an either-or setup soon with the US-Europe relationship over the Trump administration's apparent intent to "take" or "buy" Greenland - are we set for a TACO and a deal or a significant break in the transatlantic alliance, both in terms of defense and trade? Also, history is being made with the treatment of Venezuela's oil revenues, US treasury yields may finall...

Today, we note that the bearish line continues to hold in US equities, as the Nasdaq 100 index can't seem to break through the local resistance and the S&P 500 index has shied away from the 7,000 level. We also run through this week's earnings for takeaways, preview Netflix earnings for next Tuesday as well as other key tech names reporting next week. In geopolitics, we continue to assess the...