Saxo Market Call

Today, a look at the fragile "cease-fire" between the US and Iran and whether it is mostly a US climbdown from its maximalist threats than any remarkable change of attitude from the Iranian side. Regardless, global markets have reacted in dramatic fashion. We walk through the reaction across asset classes as significant near term oil- and gas supply uncertainties remain. This and much more on toda...

Today, an assessment of the end-of-March and quarter-end melt-up in equities, where calendar and positioning factors are likely key drivers in addition to Trump's seeming urgency to wind down the US war in Iran. A bit odd that US military presence continues to mount then, isn't it? A look at ongoing supply chain questions, how the situation is weighing on rates and FX and much more also on today's...

Today, a look at a US market that was under exceptional pressure as major US name sold off, taking the US market to cycle lows when the broader market and other markets globally are still solidly away from the prior lows. Also, noting the many pressure points on market concerns for class action suits against Meta and possibly Google, technical disruption boosting computer memory performance and ev...

Markets are aggressively pricing an improved outlook for global energy flows as US president Trump seems to want to wrap things up in Iran as quickly as possible to avoid further damage to his popularity from the impact on the US economy from high energy prices and weak stock market sentiment. But not all players in the Middle East are on the same page - so we're a bit afraid to draw any conclusio...

Today we look at the market-altering after effects of Trump's claims of diplomacy with Iran as he backed away from an ultimatum against Iran's power infrastructure if the Straits of Hormuz remain closed, and how nothing has changed on the ground, or on the seas, even as oil prices remain significantly lower than where they were before Trump's claims yesterday. We also run through the latest moves...

Markets had been reacting to the war in Iran recently, of course, but perhaps it has been the explosion higher in global bond yields that has triggered a more profound unease on Friday and today. It's also a factor in gold prices suffering a massive meltdown. Today's discussion looks at these factors as well as the ongoing war impacts on the forward oil market curve and the whole commodity space w...

Today, a look at a market for which volatility remains very much pent up as we face the triple whammy of triple witching, weekend uncertainty and pivotal technicals for US equity markets. Also, a survey of key incoming news and supply chain perspectives as the countdown for physical shortfalls in supplies continues. Today's pod is hosted by Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy. As disc...

The war in Iran has taken on new levels of concern after Israeli and Iranian attacks on gas production infrastructure in Iran and Qatar, respectively, with the dispersion of global energy prices exploding further on the news. Elsewhere, the central bank cavalcade continues with the Bank of Japan helping USDJPY steer away from new highs. The gold sell-off has suddenly accelerated and there are some...

Today, a look at the market continuing to radiate confidence that things will turn out well despite the lack of real progress or any new clarity emerging from the war in Iran or Hormuz Strait. The market enthusiasm for memory makers remains hot and key player in that space Micron is reporting after the US close today. We also look at the seven of the G10 central banks up today and tomorrow, with B...

Today, plenty of headlines from the Middle East and the Strait of Hormuz to keep oil prices boiling, if not yet boiling over, with plenty more to come if the oil doesn't start flowing soon. Are the US and Israel flailing or slowly winning? The opinions are certainly very divided. Elsewhere, Jensen Huang's tries and fails to pump up enthusiasm for sideways trending Nvidia stock, an interesting sign...

Today, we discuss the markets continuing to price forward expectations that Hormuz Strait uncertainty will lift quickly from here, especially when one looks at the very steep backwardation in crude oil futures and US equity market sentiment. As well, we note that the critical signals in energy market pricing are to be found in key refined products more than crude itself. We also look at the eight...

Today we discuss a sense of unease that the market remains as complacent as it does given the magnitude of the disruption of oil and gas supplies through the Hormuz Strait. We also discuss Adobe's huge stumble despite strong earnings, FX and gold and much more. Today's pod is hosted by Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy.  Links: Anas Alhajji discussing important current state of affa...

Today we try to try to find the signal amongst the general noise level and headlines coming both from the Iran War and the wider region and from the US politicians, especially regarding the status of the war and its intents. Most importantly, we try to understand if the US is actually playing a geostrategic brinksmanship card with China with this conflict and what the consequences of that might be...

Today, an attempt to assess the comeback in risk sentiment and retreat in oil prices and whether we can trust President Trump's framing of the war situation, as a "TACO" (Trump always chickens out) may be more difficult to achieve now that the US and Israel or on a full war footing with an Iran that remains defiant and continues to launch missiles and drones. Today's pod is hosted by Saxo Global H...

Global markets are rightly on edge about the situation in Iran and the disruption of the lifeline of crude oil, LNG and other supplies through the Strait of Hormuz, but the damage to confidence looks restrained relative to what awaits if the oil and gas don't begin to flow this week. This and much more on today's pod, which features Saxo Head of Commodity Strategy Ole Hansen and is hosted by Saxo...

Today, a rundown of how various global markets are positioned relative to the risk of the Strait of Hormuz remaining closed for various time periods. Towards the end of the podcast, we look at why, even if the short term focus is on the Strait of Hormuz and whether regime change lies ahead for Iran, something far more monumental is at stake. Saxo Equity Strategist Ruben Dalfovo also breaks down th...

Today, the market off on a cautious footing as crude oil prices remain high after yesterday's strong bounce-back attempt, with intense headline risk in both directions. We look at the latest developments and wonder where the US intelligence attempts to support Kurdish rebellions in Iran could lead, among other key questions. Elsewhere, Broadcom unleashed a massive forecast for its AI chip business...

Today, we note the US market's out-of-step behaviour relative to the rest of the world, as US traders have taken a buy-the-dip stance while Europe was down heavily on Tuesday and parts of Asia practically crashed overnight. US market internals continue to throw off interesting signals as well. We also note that the market continues to price a relatively short disruption to shipping through the key...

Yesterday's positive close on the US equity market was a head scratcher and we try to put together a set of reasons how it was possible as we quickly yielded to a fresh round of deep risk off in Asia and Europe overnight and into this morning. Some thoughts on the "energy overlay" for all of the major currencies should this conflict persist and the energy price spike worsen and much more also on t...

Today we run through what has just happened in Iran, how global markets have reacted and the key developments to watch from here as we consider a few scenarios for where this takes us. So far, the market reaction outside of energy markets has been quite modest. Today's pod is hosted by Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy. Two or three times per week, you will also find links discussed...

Today, a look at the market punishing Nvidia shares, and many other AI hardware-related stocks in Thursday's session - was this mostly about options-related flow or red flag related to long term growth concerns? Also, a look at other names with big moves, including Block ripping higher on announcing plans to fire 40% of its workforce due to AI productivity gains. Elsewhere, some thoughts on macro...

Let's see if the US cash session (and the action into Friday's options expiry) tells us otherwise, but the market's very restrained reaction to Nvidia's very strong report might suggest a concern linked to the long term sustainability of Nvidia's prospects even amidst the incredible near term numbers. Elsewhere, we break down the results of other key software-as-a-service names reporting as well a...

The AI disruption trade finally saw some consolidation yesterday, ironically the day after a viral report on profound AI disruption sweeping over the market. Elsewhere, we have Meta going big on its commitment to AMD and Nvidia and key software-as-a-service names reporting today after the close. In FX, the JPY is tumbling as dovish BoJ appointments have the market questioning whether Japan's PM Ta...

The AI disruption overlay trade is now bordering on the AI apocalypse trade as a well penned research report intensifies the sell-off in names that the market fears the future of AI will disrupt. IBM suddenly the latest victim on the announcement of the latest Anthropic tool that might be able to update old mainframe software. We try to assess the landscape and wonder when and whether the selling...

With Ruben Dalfovo, Saxo Equity Market strategist, today we delve into how to approach and rate the prospects for beaten down software-as-a-service (SaaS) stocks with a systematic approach and how some names may have been unfairly punished recently while the business models of others are indeed in doubt. We also look at a number of important software names reporting this week, as well as previewin...