RenMac

nMac talks about sentiment, it’s faults and features, what could go right, the valuation problem, why bonds are attractive, next week’s jobs number, and the latest on government spending bill.

Renmac discusses the Fed’s neutral rate, persistent strength in employment, Neil’s personal microcosm of housing, the potential for a government shutdown, real rates and the implicit message behind Biden’s persistent gaffs.

RenMac highlights Larry Sabato’s higher than consensus’ odds of R’s taking the Senate, the 100 vs 75bps debate, implications of $FDX news, relative performance of discretionary vs staples, importance of claims data, an historical indication of peaking 10yr yields and Pavlick’s travel suspiciously coinciding w/ PSU schedule.

The RenMac team discusses Queen Elizabeth’s legacy, why Biden is leaving Trump’s China tariffs in place, markets pricing in 150bps over the next three Fed meetings, labor market remaining hot, why the market cycle clock is tilting bullish, and how Rs are looking good to take the House but things are looking better for Ds to hold on to the Senate.

The RenMac team discusses how the U.S. economy is not slowing down and what that means for the Fed moving forward, Biden’s political speech aimed at motivating the Democratic base ahead of the midterms, why the student loan aid announcement may not come to fruition, how companies may be overpaying for workers based on productivity levels, why the June low has a high probability of being the low fo...

Neil and Jeff talk about the wages, housing, market momentum, trouble with forward guidance and the upcoming Fed meeting.

The RenMac team discusses Neil’s recent trip to Vegas, Democrats improved political standing, Bullard’s motives and message, how this housing recession is different, momentum signals in the market, and the challenge in looking for sector leadership.

Biden’s 0% inflation victory lap, better/worse vs good/bad, momentum is unusually strong and bullish, how the Mar Largo raid increases odds of Trump candidacy, and the decline productivity from Neil’s trip to Vegas.

The RenMac team discusses how the employment report cements a 75 bps move for the Fed and increases the odds of a hard landing, why the short-term curve should be steeper, whether jobs are a lagging indicator, recent political winds blowing in favor of Democrats, how the contraction in rates is impacting equities, and sentiment’s relationship with momentum and the impact on trend.

The RenMac team discusses how Schumer outmaneuvered McConnell on the reconciliation package, Powell’s pivot to a pause vs. cut, SPX 20-day high signal, markets misreading the Fed, futures suggesting a kink in the curve, a slow bleed recession on the horizon, and debating the distinction between a slowdown and a recession.

The RenMac team discusses Jeff’s desire for more tattoos, Biden’s climate emergency non-declaration, the political impact of Biden getting COVID, how the European blowback is starting to impact the U.S., why markets might be wrong about the Fed’s reaction function, the market rally this past week, why we continue to prefer defensives over cyclicals, and why the ECB is more likely to make a policy...

The RenMac team discusses a new record-high inflation report and whether 100bps is more likely, Powell latching to lagging indicators, is core services next, new Fed members impact on future rate decisions, markets looking beyond inflation to a recession, Biden's Saudi oil boost ask, and Manchin rules out tax hikes and climate bills in latest BBB talks.

The RenMac team discusses the latest jobs report and why it might embolden the Fed to go 75bps, whether employment is the best indicator of a potential recession, yield curve peaking, tightening credit conditions, why the inflation rate may be the new Fed put as opposed to the stock market, Scuhmer’s resurrection of Ds’ reconciliation bill, and Biden’s battles with billionaires over his energy and...

The RenMac team discusses Powell’s preference for a recession rather than an inflation policy mistake, the Fed’s preferred PCE measure running much lower than CPI, reading the reaction function of the Fed, the potential for a political pause or a lower rate hike pre-Midterm, a Supreme Court setback for ESG investors, handicapping the 2022 midterms, and why healthcare remains a good defensive play.

The RenMac team discusses if the Fed is cherry picking data, moderating growth, gas tax politics and prospects, keying in on core PCE, and Powell dismissing Russian invasion as the main driver of inflation.

Jeff, Neil and Steve discuss the 75bps move as some signs of easing inflation present themselves. The team also discusses the political challenges of inflation, the upcoming Humphrey Hawkins Testimony, market’s message regarding inflation and the lack of capitulative signals in the market.

Neil and Steve discuss the latest CPI number, what Powell may say and not say next week, the inverse correlation between Biden’s approval ratings and inflation, and the politics of the Jan. 6th hearings.

The RenMac Team discusses the good news in the flattening unemployment rate, evidence building for the Fed to back off its 50bps pace, Yellen’s inflation omission admission, an improving global economic situation, defining peak inflation, and how the political die is likely cast ahead of November .

RenMac’s team discusses the Fed’s pivot, the hard or soft landing of the economy, the SPX bear market, the consistency in the Taiwan-Biden-gaffe, stubborn EPS revisions, Trump’s message resonating more with Republican voters than he is, the hard versus soft landing debate in the economy and markets, and Neil enters the housing supply pool and a shout-out thanks to our veterans.

RenMac discusses why the data doesn’t support recession narrative, the low but rising level of unemployment claims, the risk of a dovish policy pivot later this year, how healthcare and energy perform post-peak inflation, and why the party primary results will impact the 2022 and 2024 elections.

RenMac crew discusses the inflation data, the historical impact of peak inflation on markets and sectors, a first-hand look at the baby shortage formula and the impact on midterms.

The RenMac team discusses April’s “goldilocks” employment report, why wage growth will moderate, how Powell’s comments this week increase the chance of a soft landing, energy industry and SPR politics, market turmoil and what to watch next week.

The RenMac team discusses the latest GDP report, healthy customer demand suggests rebound in Q2, equity market efficiency, strong compensation growth impacting next week’s Fed meeting, impact of Trump’s potential Twitter return, COVID’s impact on Biden Fed nominees, FANG oversold conditions, and the impact of a strengthening dollar.

The RenMac team discusses Bullard’s balloon, Fed’s likely three 50 bps hike pace, recession probability declining in face of economic momentum, parallels to 94 and 04, gap downs more prevalent in downtrends, pickup in defensive areas, Schumer dashes marijuana enthusiasts Hight hopes, and Congress retuning to a crowded calendar.

The RenMac team discusses Brainard’s comments on reducing the balance sheet and the market’s reaction, next week’s inflation report and how the Fed will respond, reallocation towards healthcare away from tech, immigration debate holds up COVID relief, Rs feeling better about ’22 and ’24, will the growth last, and the corporate credit market is remaining accommodative.