RenMac

The RenMac Team is joined by financials/payments analyst Howard Mason to discuss the turmoil in the banking industry, what the latest data means for the Fed’s future moves (or lack thereof), the EPA’s aspirational EV emissions proposal, the declining relevancy of M2, and the ebullience in equities.

RenMac discusses why the March employment report is a win for the soft-landing bulls, the Fed’s wait and see approach with a tightening bias, the outperformance of global equities, the intrinsic value of gold, the Taiwanese president’s “transit” trip to the US, and Xi’s diplomatic push into OPEC.

The RenMac team discusses Neil’s bourbon trail trip, Trump indictment politics, the Fed’s failure to prevent the collapse of SVB, where is San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly, why Powell’s next move is still more likely a hike after skipping May, the importance of housing, tech breaking out, why seasonality and sentiment are still trending in the right direction.

Blurb The RenMac Team discusses the Fed’s 25 bps move, how one’s view of a banking crisis determines their outlook on future interest decisions, the politics of a pending Trump indictment, whether the Fed’s tolerance for inflation is higher now, why technology is breaking out, and whether REITs are so bad they’re good.

The RenMac team discusses the impact of SVB collapse on the banking industry, how it is becoming politicized, whether SVB was a feature or bug of the Fed’s actions, why the Fed is likely to go 25 bps next week, deposit circularity, the befuddling bitcoin bounce, cyclicals performing better than defensives, and big tech breaking out.

The RenMac team discusses the latest payroll print, why the Fed’s work is not done, the higher bar for not going 50bps, why neutral needs to be higher, Biden’s revival of the Build Back Better budget request and why it is DOA with a Republican House, industrials continue to perform, discretionary is still intact, losing defensives like utilities and stapes, and banks are oversold.

The RenMac team discusses the improvement in global manufacturing and services PMIs, why a need to rebuild inventories could lead to strong manufacturing growth, how the rest of the world is following the early cycle script, the value vs. values debate regarding ESG on the Hill, the Supreme Court’s skepticism over Biden’s student loan relief plan, why the market cycle clock is in the bullish direc...

The RenMac team discusses the Ukraine anniversary, China’s increasing role in the conflict, Dow theory and the movement of averages for tomorrow, whether oversold conditions can hold, the return of NPV, how conditions could shift towards value, and why active could benefit over passive moving forward.

The RenMac team discusses the new CBO debt limit “X-date” forecast, how Kevin McCarthy can use his Taiwan trip as leverage to get spending concessions from Biden, why the economic data is increasing the odds of the Fed raising interest rates closer to 6% this year, the post-breakout pause, improving credit conditions, and rate resiliency.

The RenMac team discusses Biden’s State of the Union address, 2024 implications, why the Fed is likely to maintain its higher-for-longer approach to interest rates, housing and Europe looking good despite expectations, why tech remains tricky outside of semis, and how good economic news next week might be bad for bonds.

The RenMac Team discusses China flying balloons over Montana, why the huge payroll number makes Powell look offsides, an optimistic outlook for autos, market haters on social media, the breadth thrust and why there is beauty in simplicity, and why the trend is moving in the bullish direction.

RenMac discusses the 4th quarter GDP numbers, the unlikeliness of a near-term recession, the confirming indications from equities, the latest on the debt limit and next week’s important data.

The RenMac team discusses the debt limit debate, the poor December economic data, why the narrative may still be moving in a positive direction moving forward, the tilt towards cyclicality, the impact of global green subsidies, the market pricing in 25bps hikes to get 5%, and market purgatory levels.

The RenMac team discusses the DOJ’s classification conundrum, the latest consumer price inflation print, why the soft landing thesis might only be temporary, the improvement of discretionary against staples, and early momentum indicators.

The RenMac team discusses the latest in the speaker spectacle in the House, the latest payroll print, how the lower unemployment rate will make it harder to slow wage increases and alter the Fed’s trajectory, no momentum despite the Market Cycle Clock being in the bullish zone, cyclicals remain in the leadership position, why the government may be more of a tailwind to consumers, and the importanc...

The RenMac team discusses Trump’s decline and DeSantis’s rise amongst Rs in the polls, Congress kicking the gov’t funding can to next week, the Fed saying that recession is more likely next year, Neil’s skepticism that economic growth will slow significantly in the short-term, improving consumer discretionary conditions, bear market prevalence in the S&P, and why Boeing could be an economic gr...

The RenMac Team discuss whether the new jobs claims data will impact the Fed’s moves, how seasonality impacts unemployment, stronger than expected PPI data, why Sinema said sayonara to the Democratic Party, Republican candidate quality costs them GA again, contrarian discretionary opportunity, and moderating sentiment despite the recent rally.

The RenMac team discusses Powell’s speech, how the payroll report threw a gut-punch into the soft-landing story, why we’re still searching for a slowdown in the economy, the expansion in the consumer discretionary sector, why the bear market may not be over, Congress shifting to omnibus now that rail strike has been averted, the GA Senate race odds, and distortion and deterioration in the crypto m...

The RenMac team discusses the implications of a divided government, why the economy might not be slowing as fast as some policymakers would prefer, why a weakening dollar could strengthen economic growth, what the trajectory of BBB spreads is saying, the puzzling breakout of industrials, and the importance of consumer discretionary to bull markets.

The RenMac team discusses the election results, whether Trump will back out of his Tuesday announcement, Ron DeSantis R nominee prospects surging, the better-than-expected CPI report, how the Fed will respond, why laggards could lead leaders, and how Thursday lit the market match.

The RenMac team discusses the latest payroll print and why it will not impact the Fed’s outlook, why the bigger risk may be the Fed underdoing it, whether Rs will have a good night or a great night, whether Biden’s speech on democracy may not resonate with voters concerned about the economy, what a divided Congress would mean for the Fed, why Powell is being set up to be the fall guy, energy, indu...

The RenMac team discusses the Republican resurgence in polls and betting markets, some concerns in the latest GDP report and how it might impact the Fed’s steps next year, why residential investment might not be as much of a drag moving forward, resetting the market to higher interest rates, the sentiment/seasonality mix, FANG pains, and the disconnect between what should be happening versus what...

The RenMac team discusses the political winds shifting in favor of Rs ahead of the midterms, how the sluggish economy is impacting the housing market, the Fed’s eventual offramp away from 75bps but maybe not 50bps, why industrials are looking good on a relative basis, and the seasonal upside opportunity vs. skeptical sentiment.

The RenMac team discusses the higher-than-expected inflation print, why the Fed will have to wait longer before pivoting, how betting markets are pricing in a higher chance of Rs winning the House and Senate, the greater odds of a GA Senate runoff, whether one day’s market reaction is the start of a broader trend, and how regional banks are looking more interesting.

The RenMac team discusses why the payroll report will not change the Fed’s direction, why Powell believes higher unemployment is needed to lower inflation, taking the over on the Fed fund futures rate, October surprises impacting midterms with OPEC production cuts and Herschel Walker allegations, why seasonality is skewing towards equities, and why the decline in bond pricing may remain an issue i...