RBC's Markets in Motion

In this edition of the podcast, updated thoughts on our outlook for the US equity market as well as what’s coming up in 3Q22 reporting season. Four big things you need to know: First, we are trimming our S&P 500 EPS forecasts, which were already well below consensus, taking 2022 to $216 (down from $218) and 2023 to $208 (down from $212). Second, we are cutting our year-end 2022 S&P 500 for...

In this edition of the podcast, we reflect on hot topics and some of the most interesting things we saw and heard last week. Three big things you need to know: First, the stronger Dollar is a clear negative for S&P 500 performance and earnings, but US equities still tend to benefit from safe-haven status within the broader global equity landscape and certain sectors tend to be more insulated f...

This week in the podcast, we reflect on some of the most interesting questions we got and things that we saw last week. Three big things you need to know: First, positioning trades within US equities tend to be fairly mixed during yield curve inversions (a topic of focus in our investor meetings even before the FOMC) but have a classic defensive bias. Second, an S&P 500 P/E of ~16x seems reaso...

This week in the podcast, we reflect on some of the most interesting things we saw last week in terms of our high-frequency data updates. Three big things you need to know: First, positioning in the Growth trade no longer looks worrisome. Second, Democrats continue to gain momentum in polling data, stoking election angst among US equity investors. Third, valuations are starting to look reasonable...

Today in the podcast, we update our thoughts on the broader US equity market outlook as well as bigger picture positioning trades. Three big things you need to know: First, there’s no change to our year-end 2022 S&P 500 target of 4,200 or our 2023 S&P 500 EPS forecast of $212, though we have tweaked our 2022 S&P 500 EPS forecast up to $218 from $214. Second, we continue to anticipate c...

Today in the podcast an update on our own sector views and the outlooks of our US analyst team. Three big things you need to know: First, in our latest RBC US equity analyst survey, taken in late August 2022, our analysts leaned modestly positive in their outlooks for performance over the next 6-12 months, and also had modestly positive views on valuations and demand. The most constructive outlook...

Today in the podcast, we reflect on some of the most interesting things we saw last week in terms of charts, questions, quotes and high frequency data. Three big things you need to know: First, our chart of the week (inspired by our top investor question) highlights how the Russell 2000 has been able to establish major bottoms in past periods of extreme stress about 3-6 months before EPS forecasts...

Today in the podcast, our takeaways from our review of the 2Q22 stock-level holdings of more than 300 hedge funds based on the 13f’s that were recently released. Three big things you need to know: First, the performance of the most popular S&P 500 stocks in hedge funds has started to weaken after initially showing some signs of stabilization in late 2Q – a potentially negative signal for the b...

Today in the podcast, we reflect on some of the most interesting things we saw last week in terms of insightful charts and questions plus the high-frequency sentiment, economic, and political indicators we track. Three big things you need to know: First, our chart of the week highlights how the S&P 500 has been able to establish major bottoms in past periods of extreme stress before EPS foreca...

Today in the podcast, a few thoughts on the composition of the snap back in stocks, where the earnings band-aid may have been ripped off within Small Cap, and the thing that caught our eye in our sentiment indicators. Three big things you need to know: First, low quality has started to work within Large Cap, something that’s frustrating investors, but began for Small Cap in June and typically happ...

Today in the podcast, we highlight the most interesting chart we saw last week, the most interesting question we got last week, and some noteworthy shifts we’re seeing in some of the high frequency indicators that we track. Three big things you need to know: First, the most interesting chart we saw last week highlights how recession talk among S&P 500 companies is back to 2020 highs. Second, t...

Today in the podcast, our takeaways on 2Q-2022 reporting season, with more than half of S&P results in. The big things you need to know: First, 2H22 and 2023 forecasts have started to come down, but perhaps not enough. Second, within the S&P 500 sector standouts so far include Energy, REITs and Utilities along with Tech. Third, Small Caps are the star of the show so far.

Today in the podcast, we update our outlook for the S&P 500 and several key positioning trades. The big things you need to know: First, we’ve made another cut to our YE 2022 S&P 500 price target to 4,200 from 4,700 and have lowered our S&P 500 EPS forecasts to $214 for 2022 and $212 for 2023. Second, looking into the back half of the year, the midterm election could be a positive catal...

Today in the podcast, an update on our latest RBC equity analyst outlook survey, which we just completed, plus an update on our own latest US equity strategy sector views. Three big things you need to know: First, in our latest analyst survey, our US industry analysts were most constructive on Energy, Financials, Health Care, and Tech, and least constructive on Communication Services, Consumer Dis...

In this week’s RBC’s Markets in Motion podcast, Chris Louney, Commodity Strategist, guest hosts to discuss his latest views on the natural gas markets. Today in our 6:15 minute podcast, we discuss the factors impacting US natural gas prices this year and beyond. Natural gas prices generally are attracting far more attention amid headlines of energy prices broadly, inflation worries and economic co...

In this week’s RBC’s Markets in Motion podcast, Michael Tran, Commodity and Digital Intelligence Strategist, guest hosts to discuss his latest views on the global oil market dynamic. Today in our 11:30 minute podcast, we discuss the recent oil price volatility and explore the dynamic between the push and pull between the looming threat of a recession which is being stacked up against the strongest...

Today in the podcast, our thoughts on a few additional questions that we’ve been getting from equity investors in our recent travels across the US, a topic we also explored in our last podcast. Three big (new) things you need to know: First, equity investors have been asking us whether inflation has been good for stocks and earnings. We think that it has, and view moderating inflation as more of a...

This week in the podcast, highlights from our conversations with institutional equity investors last week, plus updates on the valuation and sentiment indicators we’re watching. Five big things you need to know: First, we’ve outlined two possible recession paths for S&P 500 EPS which suggest a valuation case for the S&P 500 can be made today on next year P/E if the recession is short-lived...

This week in the podcast, some quick thoughts on US equities in the aftermath of Friday’s hot CPI print and subsequent sell-off. Three big things you need to know: First, the recent rise in long-run inflation expectations in the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Survey suggests that Value oriented sectors may continue to lead for a bit longer. Second, our look back at the historical playbo...

This week in the podcast, we’re updating our outlook on the broader US equity market. Three big things you need to know: First, we have trimmed our S&P 500 year-end 2022 price target to 4700 from 4860. This is a housekeeping move. We are continuing to bake in a slower economic growth backdrop in 2022-2023 as opposed to a recession. Second, we continue to be more intrigued with Growth over Valu...

This week in the podcast, we dig into Consumer Staples, the third best performing sector in the S&P 500 so far in 2022. The big thing you need to know: We are sticking with a market weight stance on the sector. The tailwinds that have boosted sector performance so far this year (a favorable macro backdrop for defensives, rising recession fears, strong money flows, and a higher quality profile...

In this week’s podcast, we run through our takeaways from the first quarter 13fs of more than 300 of the biggest US-based hedge funds, which came out last week. Three big things you need to know: First, our review of the performance trends and relative valuations of the most popular S&P 500 stocks in hedge funds suggests to us that the pandemic froth is out of these names, an important milesto...

This week in the podcast, our latest thoughts on economic expectations, sentiment, and valuations. The big things you need to know: First, the S&P 500 is still trading as though it’s experiencing a growth scare, a framework that has been pointing to downside in the S&P 500 to ~3,850. Current trends in economic forecasts continue to support the idea that this is the right way to think about...

This week in the podcast we tackle the topic of investor sentiment, which has been back in focus given the S&P 500’s recent decline. The big things you need to know: First, the 13.9% drawdown in place at Friday’s close is near the range of prior growth scares, but our growth scare framework points to possible downside in the S&P 500 to 3,850 even with no recession if the Friday low doesn’t...

Four big things you need to know: (1) First, we’ve trimmed our year-end 2022 S&P 500 price target from 5,050 to 4,860. The recent move up in bond yields was the biggest contributor to the downward revision to our forecast. (2) Second, we think US equities are likely to keep benefiting from safe haven status for a bit longer. (3) Third, we continue to be more intrigued with Growth than Value go...