RBC's Markets in Motion

Two big things you need to know from today's podcast: First, we took a closer look at stock market performance and economic data around the recession of 1945, the only time since the Great Depression that the stock market didn’t fall as a recession took hold. We continue to think that this period provides useful lessons for how to think about the current macro backdrop for US equities and helps to...

Today in the podcast, we run through our takeaways from 1Q23 reporting season. Two big things you need to know: First, recovery remains a key theme permeating the S&P 500 earnings stats we’ve been tracking, helping explain the resiliency of the S&P 500 of late. Second, the tone in S&P 500 earnings calls has generally been balanced in terms of the discussion of recent trends, the state...

This week in the podcast, we’re focusing on the debt ceiling. Two big things you need to know: First, we see debt ceiling drama as a contributor to choppiness in US equity markets later this year, though we ultimately expect a deal. This was a hot topic in our meetings with UK investors last week. Second, we see Health Care as one of the most vulnerable sectors in the short term but would be buyer...

Today in the podcast, thoughts on 1Q23 reporting season which got underway last week. Two big things you need to know. First, 1Q23 reporting season has gotten off to a decent start. We review what jumps out to us on the stats so far. Second, the tone in company commentary on earnings calls has been balanced so far. We run through key themes in our reading from last week.

Today in the podcast, we tackle hot topics that crossed our desk last week. Three big things you need to know: First, some US equity investors have been frustrated that the stock market seems to be ignoring an upcoming recession, but it’s happened once before. Second, we are looking forward to an earnings season dominated by new hot topics, as the discussion about inflation and its underlying sour...

Today in the podcast we’re talking sectors, following the release of the results of our latest RBC analyst survey which we blend with our own top-down strategy tools to arrive at our sector recommendations. Three big things you need to know: First, in our latest survey, taken in late March and early-April 2023, RBC’s US equity analysts were a little north of neutral in their outlooks for performan...

This week in the podcast, we run through the most interesting things that crossed our desk last week which felt like one in which the equity community collectively exhaled. Two big things you need to know:       First, according to the latest Duke CFO survey, the C suite was were becoming more optimistic before SVB and was looking ahead of 2024 as a recovery year, while ex...

Today in the podcast, we have updated thoughts on sectors, sentiment, and small caps. Three big things you need to know: First, S&P 500 Tech sector valuations have room to run, while EPS and revenue revisions have turned slightly positive – supporting our continued overweight on the sector. Second, the body of our sentiment work continues to suggest fear has been approaching potential peak lev...

Welcome to RBC’s Markets in Motion podcast, recorded March 6th, 2023. I’m Lori Calvasina, Head of US Equity Strategy at RBC Capital Markets. Please listen to the end of this podcast for important disclaimers. Ahead of RBC’s Financial Services conference this week, today in the podcast we’re digging into our thoughts on the Financials sector, which we remain overweight. Three big things you need to...

Today in the podcast, a refresh of our 2023 outlook. The three big things you need to know: First, we’re sticking with our 4,100 YE 2023 S&P 500 target. We continue to view 2023 as another year of messy post-crisis normalization, similar to the 2010-2011 and 2002-2003 periods. Second, we see a relatively balanced risk/reward between Growth and Value for the balance of the year, though Growth i...

This week in the podcast, three big things you need to know: First, we see the drama in DC over the debt ceiling as a potential risk to keep an eye on for US equities later this year. Second, mixed messages persisted in last week’s earnings calls, with a slightly more positive tone than the prior week. Third, the rebound underway in investor sentiment, which has helped stocks stay resilient, still...

This week in the podcast, we reflect on the most interesting question we received last week, and our latest thoughts on earnings. Three big things you need to know today: First, low quality leadership has returned, something that’s normal after recession lows have been put in. Second, macro themes were muddled in last week’s S&P 500 earnings calls helping explain why the rally has stumbled a b...

This week in the podcast, we touch on hot topics and interesting things that jumped out in our inbound client questions and high frequency indicators. Four big things you need to know: First, recent sector leadership within the S&P 500 is consistent with what we’ve seen in the past after final Fed rate hikes. Second, we continue to find that investors are interested in debating what kind of P/...

This week in the podcast, we highlight the most interesting question we got last week, some thoughts on earnings, and updates on our high frequency indicators. Three big things you need to know:  First, layoffs for Tech are spiking, a necessary step in the bottoming process for the stock market, while industrial layoffs remain low, supporting the soft landing thesis. Second, as we combed thro...

Today in the podcast, we reflect on hot topics and some of the most interesting things we saw and heard last week for the early reporters and our high frequency indicators. Three big things you need to know: First, the S&P 500 earnings backdrop has continued to soften, a problem for stocks in the very near term. Second, we review key themes we’ve been seeing and reading in our transcript revie...

Two big things you need to know: First, 2023 EPS forecasts have continued to soften, with former leadership sectors like Energy finally taking their lumps by participating in the downward revision cycle. Second, S&P 500 stocks with high international revenue exposure have been outperforming domestically oriented companies, as their earnings revisions trends have improved at the same time earni...

Today in the podcast, we run through some of the most interesting questions we got from US equity investors last week as 2023 got underway. Four big things you need to know: First, we’ve seen the most discussion about this year’s tax policy changes from Industrials, Financials, Energy and Utilities. Second, the three major growth/TIMT centric sectors account for almost all of the S&P 500’s dec...

Three big things you need to know:  First, our analysts have a slightly positive tilt in their outlooks for performance over the next 6-12 months, as well as on other hot topics. Second, on our survey our analysts were most constructive on the performance outlooks for Health Care and Energy, followed by Tech, Utilities, and REITs, with the weakest outlooks for Consumer Staples, Industrials, a...

Today in the podcast, we reflect on hot topics and some of the most interesting things we saw and heard last week. Three big things you need to know: First, we run through the main topics in our conversations with European based equity investors last week. Second, expensive US valuations relative to Europe are another problem for the US equity outlook in 2023. Third, we highlight initial thoughts...

Today in the podcast, our thoughts on the 2023 outlook for the US equity market. Three big things you need to know: First, our year-end 2023 S&P 500 target of 4,100 is unchanged, though we have lowered our 2023 S&P 500 EPS forecast by roughly 4% to $199. Second, we continue to anticipate choppy conditions in US equities over the next few quarters. Third, in terms of higher-level positionin...

Today in the podcast, we reflect on hot topics and some of the most interesting things we saw and heard last week. Three big things you need to know: First, we generally see last week’s cooler-than-expected inflation print as constructive for US equities, with some caveats. Second, while we see the anticipated outcome of the midterm elections as supportive of stocks, we find that we’re less excite...

In this edition of the podcast, we pull together and update our thoughts on what the event means for US equity markets. Three big things you need to know. First, we see the midterms as a modest positive for stocks if the return of Republican control is limited to the House and a bigger positive if Republicans take back control of both chambers. Second, we highlight potential sector beneficiaries i...

In this edition of the podcast, we reflect on hot topics and some of the most interesting things we saw and heard last week. Three big things you need to know: First, we revisited the international revenue exposure of the major US indices and sectors. The data suggests to us that as long as the stronger US Dollar is a problem for US companies, that Small Caps and Large Cap Value are the best place...

In this edition of the podcast, we reflect on hot topics and some of the most interesting things we saw and heard last week. Three big things you need to know: First, we received several questions about how Small Caps look from a balance sheet perspective. The short answer is: worse than Large Cap given shorter maturities and less exposure to fixed rate debt. This is admittedly a risk to our Small...

In this edition of the podcast, we update our latest views on sectors and key takeaways from our October RBC analyst outlook survey. Three big things you need to know: First, in our latest survey, taken in early October 2022, our analysts had a slightly positive tilt in their outlooks for performance over the next 6-12 months, with a modestly positive view on valuations and a slightly positive til...