Pressure Points

This was a big night for AI. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit deepwatermgmt.substack.com

META Pressure Point: For Zuckerberg, it’s all about superintelligence. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit deepwatermgmt.substack.com

The Nvidia H20 news is a tell for the AI buildout; We’re earlier in the than most think. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit deepwatermgmt.substack.com

Now that Elon has inched up the Robotaxi bar, investors are recalibrating autonomy milestones. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit deepwatermgmt.substack.com

Cook is the right person to lead Apple into AI. After that, the baton gets handed to Ternus. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit deepwatermgmt.substack.com

This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit deepwatermgmt.substack.com

Google's golden goose is ill. AI Overviews won’t be the cure. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit deepwatermgmt.substack.com

This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit deepwatermgmt.substack.com

The Pressure Point in Meta’s Quarter: AI Is "Working" for Zuckerberg. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit deepwatermgmt.substack.com

Big week for ridesharing, driven by $TSLA and $GOOG earnings, along with comments from the White House. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit deepwatermgmt.substack.com

Bottom line on Google earnings: The business is stable, but the ChatGPT overhang isn’t going away — and there’s nothing Google can say to change that in the short term. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit deepwatermgmt.substack.com

For Tesla’s long-term autonomous vision to become a reality, deliveries need to reaccelerate. That should start next year. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit deepwatermgmt.substack.com

The near-term results and guide were great but not extraordinary. Long-term things should return to extraordinary. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit deepwatermgmt.substack.com

I think the initial Google reaction is an overreaction. Google Cloud was not as bad as it first appeared, Search still needs an overhaul, and the company needs to deliver on its promise of exciting upcoming products. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit deepwatermgmt.substack.com

Apple's quarter was not as bad as the numbers first looked based on channel inventory and the guide. I still believe Apple Intelligence will reaccelerate iPhone sales starting in June based on early uptake data in the US. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit deepwatermgmt.substack.com

Tesla basically dropped the 2025 bar to the floor and raised the 2026, 2027, and 2028 bars to the stars. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit deepwatermgmt.substack.com

This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit deepwatermgmt.substack.com

Powell's comments spooked tech investors. While the AI trade may be dampened in the near-term, I expect December earnings to be the catalyst that returns confidence to AI investors. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit deepwatermgmt.substack.com

Bottom line with Nvidia earnings: I think the company will grow much faster than the Street expects in CY26. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit deepwatermgmt.substack.com

Apple’s September quarter and December guide reminds us that it will take a few quarters for the Apple Intelligence acceleration to begin. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit deepwatermgmt.substack.com

Following the Meta call, the key takeaway is the core business is doing great and they’re aggressively investing in AI to become the next big thing. My guess is that big thing is related to monetizing search. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit deepwatermgmt.substack.com

This proved to be the most important quarter for Google in 7-10 years given it showed Search revenue is benefiting from generative AI. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit deepwatermgmt.substack.com

Tesla is up 12% given there’s positive near-term data points along with a fatter golden carrot. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit deepwatermgmt.substack.com

The bears will say Nvidia earnings were good but not great. The bulls will say favorable July and October guidance doesn’t matter because the upside remains over the next two years as AI will be bigger than the internet. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit deepwatermgmt.substack.com

Nvidia Preview Pressure Point: It’s all about Jensen’s language about timing of reaching supply-demand equilibrium. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit deepwatermgmt.substack.com