Pressure Points

Apple’s leadership shake-up comes while there’s still plenty of time for Apple to nail AI. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit deepwatermgmt.substack.com

Good news for Apple investors: Apple has a new head of AI. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit deepwatermgmt.substack.com

While the market is sour on Nvidia in the near-term, the potential of restarting the China business would be sweet. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit deepwatermgmt.substack.com

It was a good day for Elon and Tesla shareholders. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit deepwatermgmt.substack.com

Below the headlines, the Amazon investment story is about automation & AWS improving margins. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit deepwatermgmt.substack.com

All signs point to a strong finish to the year for Apple. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit deepwatermgmt.substack.com

Microsoft was the least eventful of the three reporting tonight. December revenue guidance was in line with the Street, a slight disappointment, but the big picture remains intact. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit deepwatermgmt.substack.com

Meta shares are down on a flipped script — expenses are now growing faster than revenue. That said, it’s the right decision to position the company to capitalize on AI’s potential. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit deepwatermgmt.substack.com

Bravo to Google for accelerating Search in the face of chatbots. Sounds like the momentum will continue. P.S. My prediction: Waymo IPO in 2027. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit deepwatermgmt.substack.com

Big-picture takeaway from Google, Meta, and Microsoft earnings : The mojo AI trade took a step back, while the fundamentals took a step forward. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit deepwatermgmt.substack.com

I believe Jensen is suggesting about 15% upside to revenue over the next 5 quarters. The stock’s up only 4% on that likely because there are enough moving parts to keep investors from taking his comments to the bank. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit deepwatermgmt.substack.com

Since OpenAI launched Atlas, shares of GOOG are up 6.2%, compared with the Nasdaq, which is up 1.1%. Brian and I have been using it this week and concluded that while the agent mode is unreliable, it gets smarter over time and has huge potential. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit deepwatermgmt.substack.com

Tesla's big picture is still intact and they have plenty of cash to get there. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit deepwatermgmt.substack.com

Cook’s time in China underscores he’s the master of navigating geopolitics and that Apple’s manufacturing shift to India will be slower than some expect. PS: There’s a bonus at the end of the video: Good news continues on iPhone lead times. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit deepwatermgmt.substack.com

Here’s the Tesla earnings preview. Numbers are going down next year, but that's ok because it's all about autonomy. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit deepwatermgmt.substack.com

Below the surface, China US trade talks is about rare earth and GPUs. In the end, coming to an agreement is in everyone’s best interest. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit deepwatermgmt.substack.com

NHTSA's probe validates Tesla’s lead. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit deepwatermgmt.substack.com

September deliveries of 497k were well ahead of the 475k high-end of the whisper, up 7% y/y after being down 13% in June and March. I believe the vast majority of the upside was driven by a 35% quarter over quarter jump in US sales from the tax credit, which in theory means investors should largely throw out the positive number. My "throw it out" logic misses a bigger point; the future will be aut...

The AI train continues to roll. MU guided to 43% Y/Y revenue growth vs. just reported 46%. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit deepwatermgmt.substack.com

The Nvidia - OpenAI deal is just the latest salvo in an big tech arms race that is far from peaking. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit deepwatermgmt.substack.com

I would have had INTC up 5-10% on today's Nvidia investment news. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit deepwatermgmt.substack.com

How big of a week is this for iPhone? It’s been 12 years since a comparable iOS update and 11 years since a similar hardware refresh. That’s good news for iPhone growth in FY26. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit deepwatermgmt.substack.com

While Elon’s $1B investment in Tesla is small in context, his loyalty to the stock over the years has been significant. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit deepwatermgmt.substack.com

iPhone sales following the form factor, and we got more than expected good news on that front. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit deepwatermgmt.substack.com

Big picture: Nvidia's outlook was better than expected. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit deepwatermgmt.substack.com