Podcast Archive

As they say in Top Gun - "Its doesn't get to look any better than this". Today I tell you a story about the Tech Boom and brag about our performance. But don't worry, I'm not stupid, I know this could all fall over in an instant and we will not be bragging about underperformance when it does. But we do need to recognise that we are having an extraordinary stock market  &qu...

Everything going well for us at the moment. The market is still focused on recovery with energy, travel, resources, auto, technology and even the banks doing rather nicely.  With the market ignoring the negatives (trade issues, riots, relapse risk) we find ourselves trying to get the best out of the recovery rather than sitting in dull long term stocks. That means buying stocks that have recovery...

The market is ignoring the Race Riots. Another good day, settled markets, the 'Travel Trade' going OK and energy the best sector in the US. All good for us. Still fully invested and on watch for developments in the negative themes - Relapse, Trade, Riots and always on watch for a change in trend. A few charts topping out (REITs, ALX, TCL, Banks) but nothing to worry us or provoke any cha...

The market opened down 50 and is up 40 at midday - you can't keep a recovering market down. Positives include the iron ore price as Brazil runs into production concerns, a recovery in the Chinese economy with PMI numbers above 50 this morning, the oil price up 5% ahead of an OPEC meeting on Thursday that has been brought forward, a bounce in the banks from the lows this morning and the falls...

A floppy end to a great week. The ASX 200 is still firmly in uptrend having broken out in the last week. The bank sector tops out today after an 18% rise in four days but is still 40% off its pre-COVID-19 high and is the second worst performing sector after energy. If this V-shaped recovery optimism continues the sector will go higher having over-provided for bad debts and on the chance some of th...

The markets are piling it on again led by the banks. The weekly chart of the ASX 200 registered both MACD and RSI buy signals this morning. The main Strategy message today is about the banks. We are getting back to a neutral weighting in the sector in the Growth SMA as an insurance policy against underperformance rather than in our excitement over banks. This is not the tech sector, it is a low gr...

Banks are flying again as the Morrison speech highlights that gloomy economic forecasts, and the Jobkeeper forecast budget hole, had been based on erroneous medical advice in February predicting lockdowns to September. As we come out three months earlier than that it means the Government is better off than expected, has the ability to stimulate certain sectors more than expected and that all the e...

The "Recovery Trade" is on. Our market up 118 yesterday with recovery sectors like Travel, Leisure, Tourism, Energy and REITs leading the way. Even banks put in a show. And it continues this morning with the US and UK markets shut but the German market up 2.9% with travel and leisure in the lead in Europe as well as they consider lifting European travel restrictions/flights by the end of...

We were worrying about Hong Kong upsetting the markets this morning but it wasn't to be. We are flying along again. We have written about Hong Kong but judging from the market's reaction we needn't have bothered. Strategy remains pretty much unchanged - fully invested, biased to recovery stocks, and watching for something to go wrong but there's no sign of that yet.  

There's a podcast available in which the Equity Mates interview Marcus for an hour. Worth listening to. Not much change on the strategy front this morning. Still fully invested. Still playing recovery stocks. Still playing energy stocks. Been going underweight banks to fund other recovery plays. Seems to be working, recovery stocks (like IEL, WEB, FLT, QAN, WOR, STO) seeing the most interest...

The US market takes another solid step overnight.  It seems every man and his rat has a vaccine now. Reminds me of the Lithium boom. Suddenly everyone's involved in a vaccine. Not complaining.  Not sure there is much to add this morning, the market is doing exactly what we are positioned for. The light in my office has gone from Red to Green and there is a chance that today we will break up a...

The Vaccine rally took a shot in the nose overnight as the Moderna data is questioned. But our market seems unphased today and we are rallying off the lows with recovery stocks still favoured. Big boring quality, healthcare and Banks lag. We summarise the strategy stance today, still fully invested, biased to recovery stocks and happy to be testing the top of the trading range rather than the bott...

A very interesting night in the US - a rally based on hopes for a vaccine and an abrupt end to the virus. Whether it is correct or not is not the point, the more interesting thing is to dissect the stock and sector performances overnight which make it very very clear what your game plan needs to be come a recovery rally. In the newsletter today we name all the sectors and stocks that will and won&...

Markets behaving themselves again. Resources in the lead. With not much going on this week we have gone through all the charts on our Watchlists and made comments on most sectors on both a technical and trend basis. We have also broken up all stocks into stocks that are trending up, trending down, bottoming out and topping out. We are still in this sideways trend in Australia waiting to see which...

We were getting that precipitous feeling about the markets as Wall St fell 2% on Tuesday and Wednesday and another 2% to the low last night (Dow down 458 at worst) only to find the Dow had rallied 800 points by the close. A reprieve. Markets sliding silently into the weekend. Today we talk about the risk of a relapse and how it may not be that bad. About the US markets peaking short term. About th...

Two nights of the US market going down 2% is not a good sign. Getting more cautious. Still in the sideways trading range, no break down yet and no need to change strategy yet. We have sold a few stocks this week and cash is back to 10-15% but its not a strategy call it was just selling a few peaking stocks. New risks now compound the virus relapse risk. We talk about those risk in the Strategy pie...

A couple of bad days do not make a downtrend but we are slightly more alert to the risks of a relapse this morning after warnings from the US medical experts about the damage coming out of lock-downs too early could cause. The market is still in a sideways pattern despite the falls, waiting for the break one way or the other. We have a quick look at the stocks that have done well and badly over th...

We assess the risk of a relapse in coronavirus cases - there is one - some country curves going up again. Boris Johnson is right, we are at a "Perilous Moment" as countries come out of lock-downs. If one of the big stock market countries relapses everything changes. We're assuming for the moment that won't happen but continue to watch the herd to see if it turns its attention t...

The market is behaving itself again this morning with recovery stocks in the lead and a solid performance from one of our big overweight positions in Macquarie. I've done a series of one line bullet points on strategy this morning and summarised the major themes from last week. For now the low looks to be in and until proven otherwise we're going to assume the market is in recovery phase...

The market is behaving itself - before too long worying about the impact of COVID-19 is going to be so passé . We look at some of the main strategy themes this week, some stock specific bullet points and look at why we should see one of the fastest economic recoveries in Australia. We have also given you a sneak preview of some of the content in our "Telling it as it is" online Stock Mar...

This is an introduction to ETFs by Marcus Padley author of the Marcus today daily stock market newsletter. This podcast is a teaser for our online 'Telling it as it is' Stock Market Education Course which will be launched later this year. It really needs to be listened to with the spreadsheet on ETFs open in front of you. That spreadsheet is available to our Members in the newsletter tod...

Another sideways day today - we talk about being in a trading range and breaking up or down from here. We have a couple of offerings in the newsletter today including an update of the ANATOMY OF THE FALL TABLES and an EXCHANGE TRADED FUNDS SPREADSHEET which is part of our forthcoming online education course - it lists all the ETFs by asset class and has links to their websites. We highlight the ri...

Hearing all the right headlines today about business getting back to normal. Even the RBA is talking about a stronger economic recovery than expected. The market is looking a bit sideways this week - we're still fully invested but focussing on stock selection rather than asset allocation. Volatility is still elevated but its settling. Lets hope we build the foundations for another long bull m...

The market is behaving itself reversing a 76 point fall yesterday to close up 74 with another 80 points put on the ASX 200 first thing this morning. In the strategy piece today we talk about APT, the Technology sector and the need to take it seriously, the energy sector, airlines and Telstra all being somewhere near the bottom and the hope that we can avoid another down-leg from here. All looking...