Podcast Archive

Lots in the Strategy Podcast today - we look at the Technology sector in a section called ITS TECHNOLOGY STUPID - of course the US market is holding up - 27% of the S&P 500 index is in five stocks all of which are well up this year despite COVID-19, are all potentially beneficiaries of lock downs and screen watching and are all on PEs that require them to make a lot more money next year and in...

After the market fell over yesterday we have a rebound today. Hard to pick the themes at the moment, they vary day to day. A bit of fuss about Afterpay today as brokers update their target prices after the capital raising and one goes to $101. A bit of finger-wagging going on that we are in a momentum driven market and it will all end in tears. The US continues to ignore its second wave. We make a...

Bit of a lacklustre day. Victorian lock downs upsetting the bank sector. It slows the economic recovery and the prospect of extended mortgage holidays is not what the banks want to hear. The lock downs also kill certain sectors of the economy, increases unemployment, and risks more permanent economic damage and unemployment. Iron ore a mild bright spot today. The APT price is back on after yesterd...

The market has given away a 63 point gain this morning after a solid technology led rally on Wall St and a 5.7% jump in the Chinese market yesterday. We discuss today whether we should be buying the market and come to a few conclusions about which stocks and sectors are likely to perform if the market does continue to recover. It looks like a very different anatomy to the March rally this time, fo...

Ben filling the shoes of Marcus who is away this morning. Not much for our market to go on with the US closed on Friday. 39 States saw rising case numbers over the weekend but does any of it matter while the but does is really matter while the new death rate keeps dropping? Plus a few buy signals are making us consider our cash position in the SMA’s. 

Wall St up but faded running into the long weekend - it hit a high of 469 last night and closed up 92 falling into the close. Its a holiday in the US tonight. Our market sliding quietly away after a good open as well. Today we talk about the launch of our new STOCK BOX, the launch of our WEEKLY SECTOR CHARTS section and in the Strategy discussion note a number of positives including a lot of short...

Similar sort of headlines today - We discussed what to do if the market goes nowhere - would we go "All in" again or stay out. the decision is that if we knew we would go nowhere for a year we would play selected sectors and stocks and remain with high cash levels. There is no point getting more fully invested until a convicted uptrend develops. We include today a list of positive and ne...

Welcome to all our new subscribers and welcome to the start of the new financial year. This morning in the Strategy section we explain what the Strategy section is all about. We look at the positive and negative headlines. Look at the main sectors. Do a bit of education including a three step strategy for picking stocks and a comment about big bank economists and strategists and we include as usua...

Up down up down - the market is positively undecided. Volatility is still elevated, the headlines are mostly negative. Wall St's rally was based on hopes of further stimulus - Powell speaks tonight - and Trump tweeting that "Something big has happened" which the market anticipated as a vaccine breakthrough. We await Trumps" Major Statement". Meanwhile OK Chinese PMI number...

The market down over 100 first thing this morning. Volatility is elevated. The headlines are deteriorating. No reasons to step off the shore and set sail yet. Today we highlight a defensive portfolio - a list of stocks that will outperform in a falling market, although we have no interest in losing money more slowly. We also look at the ASX 200 chart and note that we would need another 150 point f...

We thought as we went to be last night with the futures down a few hundred points and our market down 2.5% and closing on its lows that we could have woken up to another precipitous drop. It didn't happen. Market marked up this morning and now not a lot happening. Lots of stuff in the Strategy section today - a lesson in charts - a debate about the second wave not affecting the market and a f...

Wall St down 710 - our market opened down 109 then rallied 50 points. A one day wobble or the start of a downtrend? We'' find out in the next few days. Looking like a wobble at the moment. No sell signal on the ASX 200 (too early) but there was one of the S&P 500 overnight. See the charts in the Strategy section today. Today we taught Members about the Collins Class Rule and covered...

We made the realisation today that the "Relapse Risk" is not a significant market event that will simply 'happen' one day. The relapse is already happening - the world, the US and now Australia, is beginning to realise that there are geographically defined hotspots and it is not for Trump, Morrison or Boris to tell their State governors what to do, the virus has to be handled l...

A wild ride today as a headline that the trade deal is "over" turns our market around from up 55 to down 62 although the White House adviser that said it now says his comments were taken out of context and we're up 2 as I write. Whatever. Still in cash watching to see whether the storm dissipates or develops, waiting for the next trend. The case number headlines continue to deterior...

The market is doing a bit better than expected this morning recovering an early fall as the Dow Futures rally off the lows. We're still cashed up in our SMAs and happy to be cashed up against the backdrop of 'Pandemic Resurgence' headlines, particularly in the US as well as Australia. We talk about watching the weather on the radar, ready to set sail rather than sitting in a boat on...

In the Strategy piece today we make the point that the precipitous moment we saw in the market at the end of last week appears to have passed but we're happy to be in cash waiting for the break than sitting fully investing hoping the market can extend its hair on fire recovery rally and fearful that it can't. We have all the power, no risk and we await the next trend. Today we talk about...

The market down today which suits us but there are reasons to doubt our recent cash call with a buy signal on our Heikin-Ashi chart. We discuss that in the Strategy section today and decide not to do anything about it, the market is a bit of a charade at the moment trading on constant Fed support which at some point is going to wear thin...maybe. Don't fight the Fed! Otherwise there are some...

We spent the day yesterday in cash watching the market go up 223 points or 3.9%. It can be stressful not making any money,  but its a lot more palatable when you're not losing anyone any money. We list the positives and negatives in the strategy piece today and deliver on our promise to dissect the anatomy of the recent fall and there are some very interesting observations not least of which...

Not looking quite so clever today with the market up 220 points as the Dow Jones turns around a 762 point loss early on to close up 157 at one point rallying 1048 points from top to bottom. As I write the Dow Futures are up another 500. The only consolation is that we're not losing any money in cash, we're just not making it. We're still in cash, one bounce doesn't make a trend...

As you hopefully know we hit the sell button on Friday and cashed up in our SMAs. Henry and Chris are still holding some stocks, you can check out what they are up to in the newsletter portfolios on the website but the $60m of investor money in the SMAs is now in cash and we are "All out" once again. We had been talking about the overbought nature of the market at the beginning of last w...

We live in interesting times. Capital preservation is our priority, we are locking in gains this morning, its been a tremendous ride but the herd is beginning to sober up and we're not going to stand in its way. Corrections start fast and there are a hundred things you could throw into the mix to worry about, from 'Pandemic Resurgence' to the real one, the Fed telling us that this i...

The herd is passing a new message in the last couple of days, the move from recovery stocks back to safety again is underway and we are wondering whether to follow. We have taken the top off some technology stocks and gone overweight CSL but there may be more to do. We are (over) exposed to recovery sectors and it may just be time to blunt the aggression  and go hide somewhere for a while. For now...

The Anatomy of the market rally took on a new profile today - the safe boring stuff (Healthcare, Telecoms, Food, Staples) going up and the recovery sectors going down. Not reacting to that yet although we have gone overweight CSL just in case. Technology holding up today although a few charts rolling over the top and 25% of the ASX 200 is overbought. Dow Futures up 170 as we write, FOMC Meeting go...

Dow Jones up 1290 in two days - our market up 200 points at the peak today. It doesn't get to look much better than this. There are a lot of concerns about the market setting itself up for a sell-off but lets worry about that when it happens. Yes we're looking overbought in the short term but it can stay that way for long periods. So the market is "On watch" but not a sell. Tod...

The market is rolling into the buffers at the end of a good week ahead of the long weekend. We talk today about the growing "Disconnect" commentary - the idea that the equity markets are ignoring the economic reality. As the market rallies a lot of stocks and the market are getting 'overbought' - 50 stocks in the ASX 200 are overbought. We're not going to sell because of w...