Podcast Archive

Today we talk about Bassett hounds and Greyhounds and make it very clear what our recent strategy change has been that has prompted us to move from all-cash to 80% invested. Outlined in the strategy section today are the stocks we have bought, the themes we have bought and why we have bought them. I also highlight three sector themes that have been significant beneficiaries from the pandemic that...

A results roller-coaster today as some stocks fly and AGL and Telstra die. The Futures were up 42 and we're down 42. Banks fold as the CBA results reaction from yesterday is muted at best. A day to forget. Meanwhile we deliver the new presentation the MT portfolios in the STRATEGY section today - hopefully you'll see these as a huge leap in transparency. Meanwhile we discuss the Northern...

A lot going on in the market today. We highlight the very interesting rotation, a rotation that started three days ago with the US jobs numbers, out of the "COVID hedge" sectors (Gold and Technology) and into the cyclical recovery sectors. We could wait for confirmation of that trend but we have decided to participate before these sold down sectors get away from us. We have added banks,...

A very interesting couple of days in the stock market - up 105 yesterday and despite the futures falling we are up another 67 so far today. Case numbers are peaking in Australia and suddenly the stock market picks up, the 10 year bond yield picks up and the recovery sectors including banks and travel start to rally. Meanwhile the technology and gold sectors peak. If this carries on then cash is no...

Co-Portfolio Manager Ben O'Leary takes a look at the stocks in focus this week as results season starts to ramp up. Commonwealth Bank the headline on Wednesday where a big question mark remains over the dividend payout.

MARCUS STRATEGY - What we gain one day we lose the next. We have broken our duck and bought some stocks. It is a relief to be looking at stocks again instead of debating an "All Cash" stance. There are a few ideas in the STRATEGY piece in the newsletter again today. If you are not a Marcus Today Member you will not be hearing the details of what we are buying in the podcast I'm afra...

For a number of reasons we are getting less fearful about the market and have today started to provide a few stock ideas for Members as we "get on with it" rather than sit in cash. Whilst we don't anticipate a market uptrend, and can still see some risks, we do think the world is coming to terms with a new normal that includes living with the virus. Against that backdrop the equity...

Today we talk about the assumption of a 'new normal' and what that means for you as an Australian investor. If a new normal develops then the precipitous risk recedes and we can relax about the market a bit but it doesn't mean getting excited. The bond market is telling a tale of a dire economic outlook and its hard against that backdrop to assume a bull market trend, especially in...

A bit of economic optimism creeping in as US and Chinese manufacturing activity is clearing picking up despite the virus spread in the US. Some signs of flattening curves in US hotspots helps. Caution to the wind in technology today and having broken down yesterday the banks have all but recovered today. It is hard to trust the market. Australia of course is taking it all very seriously and suffer...

Co-Portfolio Manager Ben O'Leary back in the chair today. We are past the halfway mark of US results season and a record number of the companies that have reported have beat profit estimates. This despite the most recent financial period expected to be the slowest profit period since the GFC. Big tech is leading the way in the US, but what does it mean for our results season which starts to h...

Big falls on European markets overnight and was it not for Apple, Amazon and Facebook results (all up after hours on bumper results) the US market would be following the US economy rather than the few behemoth beneficiaries of the pandemic. One incredible fact, US household disposable income rose in the 2nd Q whilst GDP fell 32.9%. The power of government unemployment cheques. This is a market hel...

723 cases in Victoria but the market holds up. We talk about the market defying logic. the Results Rodeo which has already started. The Investment Banks in New York laughing all the way to the Bank. The Afterpay SPP closing today. The Furniture Part and our "Willing to trade stocks while otherwise cashed-up" stance. Macquarie AGM OK. US GDP tonight. RIO results reaction muted. 

Some optimism in case numbers in the US and Victoria this morning but its not reflected in the stock market yet. APRA tells the banks they can pay out dividends but suggests they retain a 50% payout ratio which means they will only be paying our 55-66% of their previous dividends until APRA give them the all clear. We talk today about the Results Season and how to handle it and we look forward to...

Our current assumption is that the market is going sideways with more risk on the downside than the upside and on that basis we prefer in general to sit in cash whilst that continues. However the “All cash” call has denied us some opportunities (gold, technology) that we could have and should in future, take advantage of so, against a backdrop of being generally cashed up, we have decided to start...

The market is lacking conviction. Volumes are dropping. Interest is low. There are sell signals around on a number of markets and stocks short term. We are increasingly concerned that the equity markets have limited upside without a medical solution. We are poised to catch the bottom of the market and any new uptrend. Whilst we wait we are considering the odds/merits of trading individual stocks w...

The market has dropped and died (low volume) today. We might not have bothered this week, closing pretty much unchanged. Lots of interesting stuff overnight, Big Tech falls over, the US-China relations take an interesting turn, the Government's sober outlook dulls V-Shaped recovery hopes, bond yields fall again, and weekly jobless numbers in the US confirm the slowing in the economic trajecto...

Lots of interesting stuff today - apart from the STRATEGY summary we have a look at the bipolar nature of the market and the two scenarios its can't decide upon, we have a look at the Big Tech sector and why its done so well and will continue to do so. We also discuss APT being bid for, the sell signals in BHP, the canary in the mine being dead and a host of other interesting stuff. 

Lots going on - yesterday saw a moment of Australian economic optimism as Philip Lowe and Josh Frydenberg both barrelled the market with optimism and stimulus. Short lived today as the Victorian cases hit 483 and it looks like we are experiencing an exponential pop in cases that could takes weeks to flatten. We are having to wear face masks at golf. I begin to empathise with that lady in Brighton!...

Big day for technology stocks today as the NASDAQ hits all time highs again whilst the 'old world' falls - the Dow Jones was down. Its a technology driven stock market and we ask this question today, "Does Amazon want a vaccine". And for that matter, does Facebook, does Netflix? Of course not. We've been getting it all wrong. The virus is good for the stock market. Cramer...

Read Henry’s Take about the See-Saw – “On one end of the seesaw are the virus and its economic impact. On the other end of the seesaw are stimulus and vaccines. They appear now to be equally poised. The market does not seem to know which way to jump.” – Technically the next market trend has yet to establish itself. The risk of a NSW lockdown and Victoria wearing masks dents Australian economic hop...

Nothing much going on this Friday - market dead in the water. RIO results and the Chinese GDP number didn't pop the resources sector after all. Still in cash in the SMA's. See the risk of the market falling higher than the risk of it rising - it goes sideways in the meantime. The message from the bond market (record low yields) says something very different to the US equity market (all t...

I waited for the Chinese GDP number before doing the podcast - I thought it might 'pop' the resources sector. Its a good number but the resources sector is unimpressed as is the A$. And the market is going down not up and the Dow Futures are down over 100. So it hasn't set the world alight. We talk today about vaccine 'hopes' not being enough, we need vaccine 'evidenc...

The market having a good day on the back of vaccine hopes. Over 6000 on the ASX 200 again - lets see if that holds. Banks under a cloud as Westpac promises a market update on August 18 which sounds like it could be a profit warning about the "Continued impact of COVID-19". Resources firm again ahead of results in a few weeks, production numbers in the next week and ahead of the Chinese G...

A big reversal on the US markets as California re-introduces lock downs may be the thin end of a wedge that dents the V-Shaped recovery assumption and puts some reality back into the US 'too far too fast' market rally, which has been all technology led. Interesting to see the NASDAQ lead the selling overnight and out Tech sector taking a hit today on the back of it. Was that the top? Rea...

Assistant Fund Manager Ben O’Leary sitting in the chair of Marcus Padley once again. Another big rise in cases and deaths heading north again in the US but the market doesn’t seem to care. A host of negative stock headlines give us a warning of things to come heading into results season, there will be plenty of landmines about but we remain on the hunt for income. Plus Marcus takes a look at “The...