Podcast Archive

The market is up on the day after the 5% fall on Friday - disaster averted. In the Strategy piece today we address the need to be flexible, the lack of a technical sell signal despite Friday, the irrelevance of a trade war outbreak against the current economic backdrop and how, without the market in a bubble, there is no bubble for a trade war to burst. We also look at a few sectors and decide oil...

Ugly day as the market turns over - Sell in May and Go Away they say - certainly true today. Headlines about Trump imposing Tariffs on China may be the catalyst, that old chestnut. God forbid we start following Trump's Trade Tariff Tweets around on a daily basis again. Or it may be a beginning of month thing, having locked in a great May (ASX 200 up 26% in 26 days) some institutions take toda...

There are a lot of interesting themes running through the overnight session in the US - the rotation out of safe defensive sectors like Utilities and Staples (which fell despite the US market being up 2%) and into recovery sectors (Energy, Smaller companies, Airlines and many others) is underway and we are likely to see something similar in Australia as we continue to anticipate the economic resta...

Interesting rotation from Technology to Value in the US, Tech stocks selling off. Come a recovery from the virus is the most money going to be made in Netflix and Amazon, stocks that have been hitting all time highs in the midst of crisis, or in gambling, travel, tourism stocks, stocks that have been clobbered. We are pursuing the same theme, looking to play recovery sectors, buy the victims, rath...

We still believe the 'Big low' is in and will be happy to get fully invested again when the moment is right, but we're not convinced that that's today. Very few charts, of markets, sectors, or stocks, are throwing off buy signals. It takes more than one good day (yesterday) to start a trend. So we remain in some cash although we have started to nibble on some recovery plays tod...

It may not be over in society but the stock market looks six months ahead. The next headlines are going to be about every economy restarting, lockdowns ending, getting back to work and before long sports, bars and restaurants getting back to business. Next you will find yourself at the airport flying to that international holiday resort for that holiday you deserve (with 23m of your closest mates)...

We talk about an underlying resilience in the market. Maybe we really are over the worst and maybe we're being a bit too cautious. There is no technical reason to buy anything yet but maybe we're not on the brink of a new economic collapse either. We also talk about the fact that in a couple of months we are all going to be back in the office and stuffed into a crowded cinema watching To...

The volatility is still with us - Wall St down 632 one day, up 457 the next. We talk about one day reversals  - we saw one yesterday - down 121 at one point but we closed unchanged. Lets see if we hold on to this mornings gains this afternoon. We also talk about your mindset and the need for investors to get ahead of the headlines rather than react to them. The money is in guessing where the herd...

40% cash looking good this morning as the market tips over again. 3% falls in the NASDAQ, Germany, Italy and France are not a good sign. Weakness in the US mainstay, the Technology sector, also a worry. We talk about the Collins Class Rule this morning (don't take it too seriously). 10% of the stocks in the All Ordinaries index have triggered RSI sell signals today (yesterday), we list them....

The oil price fall is a red herring - otherwise with volatility on the rise again, a few stocks and markets rolling over the top and the US market back to a fantasy world PE of 21x already there is room for a reality check on this recent ultra fast rally. We have cashed up a bit more.

Still happy holding a bit more cash than we were - waiting to see if this ultra fast recovery rally comes of the top now as we quietly expect - the US market is only 15% off the top and back to the middle of the long term bull market trading range with $23 trillion of S&P 500 stocks back on 21x - not sure that's really reflecting the economic and corporate damage, but who knows with that...

We talk about Stock Specific risk today - we are over the "panic selling stage", through the "sanity returns rebound stage" and going into the "recovery stage" which comes before the "long term bull market stage". The game now is to hold the best stocks for the recovery and we talk about the themes that will help us identify those. 

The vibe this morning is different - we are doing some cashing up. 

A bit of an educational piece within the strategy section today on the need to invest like Spock as well as a list of stocks we think have tired a little in this rally. 

The general market vibe is good - we're still "All in"

Today we comment on the APRA letter to banks suggesting they materially reduce their dividends - and then move to our strategy commentary which moves on from asset allocation to stock selection. 

Today's morning meeting - our discussion points narrated by Marcus

In this interesting time Marcus Today is providing a daily commentary on an audio file - enjoy!