Ned Davis Research: See the Signals Podcast

Recorded June 9, 2026 - in this episode, NDR's Chief Economist Alejandra Grindal discusses China's economy. Alejandra notes that China’s economy is best described as resilient at the headline level but increasingly imbalanced beneath the surface. There is persistent weakness in domestic demand, particularly in retail sales and the property market. However, China has so far shown resilience...

Recorded May 14, 2026 - in this episode, NDR's Chief Economist Alejandra Grindal discusses the impact of the war on global supply chains and inflation. Alejandra notes that NDR's Global Supply Chain composite, which uses a variety of metrics to gauge both global and regional supply chain conditions, shows that global supply chain pressures have been building. Regarding inflation, despite h...

Recorded April 9, 2026 - in this episode, NDR's Chief Economist Alejandra Grindal discusses the impact of the U.S.-Iran conflict on global economies. Alejandra notes that a a prolonged conflict could raise oil prices enough to slow growth and increase inflation, creating stagflationary risk. Within the U.S., consumers, especially lower income households, are mostly likely to feel the impact. E...

Recorded February 24, 2026 - in this episode, NDR's Chief Economist Alejandra Grindal discusses the U.S. economy relative to the world. From a macro perspective, there has been a divergence in macro expectations between the U.S. and other economies since early last year. Recent data suggest that those concerns are starting to carry over to the hard data. This is important for investors as weak...

Recorded February 24, 2026 - in this episode, NDR's Chief Economist Alejandra Grindal discusses the U.S. economy relative to the world. From a macro perspective, there has been a divergence in macro expectations between the U.S. and other economies since early last year. Recent data suggest that those concerns are starting to carry over to the hard data. This is important for investors as weaker r...

In this episode, NDR's Chief Economist Alejandra Grindal discusses the outlook for the global economy in 2026. The global economy is likely to slow from this year's pace, but avoid recession nevertheless. Global inflation should ease, but the paths will be more economy specific.  ------- S1:E28 For more insights, visit our blog at ⁠ ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://info.ndr.com/ndr-signals⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ Sign up for...

In this episode, NDR's Chief Economist Alejandra Grindal discusses the outlook for the global economy in 2026. The global economy is likely to slow from this year's pace, but avoid recession nevertheless. Global inflation should ease, but the paths will be more economy specific.  ------- S1:E27 For more insights, visit our blog at ⁠ ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://info.ndr.com/ndr-signals⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ Sign up for c...

In this episode, NDR's Chief Economist Alejandra Grindal discusses how she monitored global economic activity while data were sparce. Although there was a fair share of public and private data available, NDR used generative AI to create a historical, numerical score on both economic activity and inflation from the Beige Book report. ------- S1:E26 For more insights, visit our blog at ⁠ ⁠⁠⁠⁠htt...

In this episode, NDR's Chief Economist Alejandra Grindal discusses the states of the global economy. Most of the world’s major economies have shown signs of slowing, as tariff riskremains the biggest and most common obstacle to growth. Fortunately, recessiondoesn’t appear on the horizon, supporting the global expansion and equities. ------- S1:E25 For more insights, visit our blog at ⁠ ⁠⁠⁠http...

In this episode, NDR's Chief Economist Alejandra Grindal discusses how macroeconomic conditions impact equity markets. The U.S. typically performs best when economic growth is above potential with low inflation, while having its worst performance during stagflation (low growth, high inflation) environments. Alejandra also discusses this analysis for Europe and Japan. ------- S1:E24

In this episode, NDR's Chief Economist Alejandra Grindal discusses the trajectories for the U.S. and Chinese economies. In the first half of the year, China exceeded its government's growth goal of 5%, while economic sentiment in the U.S. lagged relative to other parts of the world. For the second half of the year, conditions in China are likely to soften, while the U.S. could see some upside surp...

In this episode, NDR's Chief Economist Alejandra Grindal discusses the second half outlook for the global economy. Policy uncertainty has been a key influence so far in 2025. Most of the major economies we monitor will likely see slower economic growth in the second half of the year due to the impact of tariffs and policy uncertainty. Fortunately, recession doesn’t appear on the horizon anywhere,...

In this episode, NDR's Chief Economist Alejandra Grindal discusses the state of the economy post Liberation Day. Due to the persistent uncertainty, NDR reduced its real GDP growth forecast, indicating a slowing economy, but not falling into recession at this time. So far, global trade has remained resilient as economies adapt. Inflation in the U.S. is likely to be higher a year from now, but unlik...

In this episode, NDR's Chief Economist Alejandra Grindal discusses the trajectory of the economy. Prior to the reciprocal tariff announcement, hard economic data looked favorable. However, more responsive soft economic data, such as surveys, painted a weaker outlook. If fully implemented, tariffs could have a dual-negative impact on the economy by increasing the price of goods and services, while...

In this episode, NDR's Chief Economist Alejandra Grindal discusses the global economy including growth, inflation, and tariffs. Although global economic activity has slowed, leading indicators continue to point to positive growth. Higher tariffs are likely to increase U.S. inflation, which could slow the Fed’s easing. The U.S. dollar and the Swiss franc are more likely to see gains when global pol...

In this episode, NDR's Senior U.S. Economist Veneta Dimitrova discusses the next decade through our Long-Term Capital Market Assumptions. We believe there are five major themes that will impact the global economy and the investment world over the next decade: AI, energy revolution, aging demographics, receding globalization, and global fiscal challenges. On net, we expect somewhat slower global re...

In this episode, NDR's Chief Economist Alejandra Grindal discusses the outlook for the global economy in 2025. 2024 has been a good year for the global economy, with real GDP expected to rise more than 3%.  We expect global growth to remain constructive in 2025, in line with its pace in 2024. With three-quarters of the world’s central banks now in easing cycles, easier monetary policy should help...

In the latest Ned Davis Research podcast, See the Signals , NDR's Chief Economist Alejandra Grindal discusses the U.S. economy. Prior to the election, the U.S. economy was outperforming its G7 counterparts. However, there are risks to outlook if proposed policies swell the government’s budget deficit and debt. A resulting fast runup in yields could cause U.S. equities to stumble. Looking internati...

In the latest Ned Davis Research podcast, See the Signals , Brian Sanborn, NDR's Global Head of Investment Solutions, sat down with Chief Economist Alejandra Grindal to discuss the state of China's economy and the impact of recent stimulus measures. China's growth has slowed considerably in 2023 due to structural issues and challenges in key sectors like retail and real estate. However, despite th...

In this episode, NDR's Chief Economist Alejandra Grindal discusses Japan. Following the Bank of Japan's monetary policy shift to tightening, the financial markets reacted negatively. Will that prevent the BoJ from further tightening? Probably not, due to numerous factors including inflation, the Taylor rule, and yen undervaluation. In fact, Japan's target rate may rise to 1% by the end...

In this episode, NDR's Senior U.S. Economist Veneta Dimitrova discusses the U.S. economic outlook. Although peak growth rates in this cycle are in the rearview mirror, the risk of recession in the near-term remains low. With slower disinflation expected in the coming months, one or two rates cuts by the Federal Reserve are likely on the horizon. ________________________ S1:E13 For more insight...

NDR | In a world full of first rate cuts... In this episode, NDR's Chief Economist Alejandra Grindal discusses global monetary policy. Although the Fed has yet to cut rates, other central banks such as the ECB and Bank of Canada have started easing. Alejandra reviews the historical impact of first-rate cuts on equities, interest rates, and currencies for both Europe and Canada. _______________...

In this episode, NDR's Chief Economist Alejandra Grindal discusses the current state of the global economy. The global economy showed continued signs of accelerating momentum. However, successive gains in the PMI usually don’t last much longer than six months, suggesting that the composite could take a short breather soon. One standout continues to be India. India’s economy has been one of the...

In this episode, NDR's Chief Economist Alejandra Grindal discusses global monetary policy. Japan has effectively ended Negative Interest Rate Policy, while central banks in Latin America and Switzerland have been easing. Historically, the best period for equities has been when more than half of the world’s central banks have been in easing cycles. However, the bullish case for equities may dep...

In this episode, in honor of International Women’s Day and Women’s History Month, Amy Lubas , NDR's VP of Investment Solutions interviews Alejandra Grindal, NDR's Chief Economist who discusses trends by women in the labor force. She notes that female participation in the prime age labor force has soared all over the world, outpacing that of males. In the U.S., there has been a notable surg...