Ned Davis Research: See the Signals Podcast

In this episode, NDR's Chief U.S. Strategist Ed Clissold discusses the impact of the U.S. Presidential Election cycle on the markets. Ed reviews the four-year cycle's strongest and weakest periods, how the market may behave this year depending on the election's outcome, and which industries and sectors to watch. _________________________________________ S1:E8 For more insights, visit o...

In this episode, NDR's Chief Economist Alejandra Grindal discusses whether the global economy is on the verge of recession. The global economic lull we saw in the second half of 2023 appears to be abating as we start 2024. Alejandra notes that the weight of the evidence points to a low risk of global recession, as only one indicator in NDR’s Global Recession Watch report is giving a negative s...

In this episode, NDR's Chief Economist Alejandra Grindal discusses the potential for a soft landing versus no landing. Although recent data have reflected an overheating economy, the soft-landing scenario, of below-trend economic growth and continued disinflation, is more likely as the delayed impact of tight monetary policy, ebbing excess pandemic savings, rising consumer delinquencies, and p...

In this episode, NDR's Chief Economist Alejandra Grindal provides her 2024 outlook for the global economy. Many of the downside factors that affected the second half of 2023 to persist. As a result, we estimate 2.7% real GDP growth in the global economy in 2024 and assign a 35% probability of a severe global recession. Overall, the inflation path is moving in the right direction, but inflation...

In this episode, NDR's Chief Economist Alejandra Grindal contrasts the economic divergence between China and India. Near-term, China’s economy is slowing after a short-lived pandemic reopening rebound early in the year, while India is seeing broad-based gains in economic activity. Longer-term, reforms introduced in India prior to the pandemic, coupled with deglobalization trends away from Chin...

In this episode of See the Signals, NDR’s Chief Economist Alejandra Grindal discusses the tailwinds and headwinds within the U.S. economy. She also analyzes the impact on the credit markets. Overall, the weight of evidence continues to suggest that a soft landing is the more likely scenario for the U.S. economy. ___________________________ S1:E3 For more insights, visit our blog at https://info.nd...

In this episode, NDR's Chief Economist Alejandra Grindal discusses the unexpected demographic upside from the pandemic. Among major economies, flexible work weeks and days worked from home have become a norm, which has led to a soaring labor force participation rate among females. With greater female labor force participation being associated with more elevated birth rates among developed econ...

In her latest global economic research note, NDR’s Chief Economist Alejandra Grindal analyzed strong divergences within the global economy. In particular, she found growing risks within China and Europe, but a more optimistic outlook for the U.S., Japan, and India. __________________________________ S1:E1 For more insights, visit our blog at ⁠https://info.ndr.com/ndr-signals⁠ Or to sign up for com...