NAB Morning Call

Friday13th September 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer   Financial Services Guide | Information on our services -   NAB The ECB cut interest rates by 25bp to 3.5 percent, as expected. The question is, will there be more to come soon. The growth forecast has been downgraded slightly. Mario Draghi’s report is asking for substantial investment to see substantive growth in Europe and last...

Thursday 12th September 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer   Financial Services Guide | Information on our services -   NAB Kamala Harris “won“ the Presidential debate, by most accounts, and US core GDP showed a slight tick up last month. Neither bit of news really moved the markets. Harris still has to win the election and, although a rise in CPI may be concerning, the headline r...

Wednesday 11th September 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer   Financial Services Guide | Information on our services -   NAB There’s been sizable falls in oil prices overnight, driven by a downward revision to OPEC+ forecasts for this year and next. NAB’s Skye Masters talks about the market response to the oil price and the slowdown more generally. She suggests it’ll make nex...

Tuesday 10th September 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer   Financial Services Guide | Information on our services -   NAB US equities rose sharply to the close overnight. Apple shares rose less than most, with prices actually falling during the release of the new iPhone 16, which clearly failed to impress markets. But that wasn’t enough to stop a lot of dip-buying during a session lar...

Monday 9th September 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer   Financial Services Guide | Information on our services -   NAB Whilst the US unemployment rate came in as expected on Friday, at 4.2 percent, it was downward revision to the previous two months numbers that seem to have caused the most consternation. With the Fed signalling their focus is on ensuring there isn’t a sudden downtur...

Friday 6th September 2024 Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here . China won’t achieve its 5% growth target this year. Yan Wang, Chief Emerging Markets & China Strategist at Alpine Macro, says the forward indicators show it won’t happen. So, what next for China? Yan says a shift in governmen...

Friday 6th September 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer   Financial Services Guide | Information on our services -   NAB We are less than a day away from the US non-farm payrolls numbers, which are likely to determine whether the Fed cuts interest rates by 25bp or 50bp at this month’s meeting. NAB’s Ray Attrill says if the numbers are in-line with expectations he reckons that’ll solidi...

Thursday 5th September 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer   Financial Services Guide | Information on our services -   NAB Shares continue to push lower along with bond yields as markets continue to be concerned about the US jobs market. The JOLTs numbers overnight show the least number of jobs available since April 2021. JBWere’s Sally Auld says markets are vacillating between expecte...

Wednesday 4th September 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer   Financial Services Guide | Information on our services -   NAB There have been some sharp defensive market moves overnight. In currency markets safe havens have done well, whilst shares are well down, the VIX index has risen and bonds have rallied. Phil asks NAB’s Gavin Friend why all this nervousness all of a sudden? The onl...

Tuesday 3rd September 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer   Financial Services Guide | Information on our services -   NAB Markets were subdued again on Monday with the US on holiday. Today they are back, in time for the ISM manufacturing read. NAB’s Rodrigo Catril says the employment component of the report will get the most focus, as the first of several labour market indicators ahead...

Monday 2nd September 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer   Financial Services Guide | Information on our services -   NAB European inflation is now at its lowest level in three years, whilst shares hit an all-time high. That’s cemented in the probability of a cut by the ECB this month. Expectations for cuts by the Fed haven’t moved any higher, as the Core PCE inflation read on Friday wa...

Friday 16th August 2024 Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here . Despite all the fears of a major slowdown, Australian shares have continued to rise and the latest results season has provided stronger than expected earnings. nabtrade’s Gemma Dale says the underlying strength in the economy, which is...

Friday 30th August 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer   Financial Services Guide | Information on our services -   NAB Two surprises from the US. First, a 100 percent growth from NVIDIA wasn’t enough for investors, who obviously expected more. So, even though their results were considered a beat, their share price is still well down. The other surprise was the sharp upward revisio...

Thursday 29th August 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer   Financial Services Guide | Information on our services -   NAB Equity markets were preoccupied with NVIDIA earnings for much of the week, finishing the session with unwarranted pessimism. As it turns out, earnings beat expectations and forecasts for the next quarter are also above the street’s estimates. As a result, the share p...

Wednesday 28th August 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer   Financial Services Guide | Information on our services -   NAB Australia’s latest monthly inflation number is out today. Phil asks NAB’s Skye Masters what’s expected and how pivotal will it be to the RBA, given they seem intent to keep rates on hold until next year. This time tomorrow NVIDIA releases its Q2 earnings, possibly t...

Tuesday 27th August 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer   Financial Services Guide | Information on our services -   NAB There hasn’t been a lot of market movement overnight. What there was saw a slight reversal on positions taken after Powell’s talk at Jackson Hole. Hence, the dollar is back up a little, shares have fallen, and bond yields are up slightly too. It’s lighter trading, of...

Monday 26th August 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer   Financial Services Guide | Information on our services -   NAB Even though Fed speakers positioned markets to expect gradual and methodical cuts late last week, it was a very different language used by Jerome Powell at Jackson Hole on Friday. NAB’s Tapas Strickland joins Phil to discuss what was said and how market reacted. I...

Friday 16th August 2024 Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here . On the face of it you’d wonder why central banks in New Zealand and Australia have taken such different paths when it comes to fighting inflation. They are both western economies that were growing reasonably well before the pandemic. Th...

Friday 23rd August 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer   Financial Services Guide | Information on our services -   NAB Bond yields are higher, the dollar has fallen and US equities are lower. Markets have switched direction over the last 24 hours. NAB’s Ray Attrill says there are three reasons for the reversal – the latest PMI data, central bank speak and expectations for the outc...

Thursday 22nd August 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer   Financial Services Guide | Information on our services -   NAB Today as the US dollar weakens again, against a rising Yen, Phil asks JBWere’s Sally Auld to explain the impact rates differentials are having on the Japanese carry trade. The FOMC minutes this morning came as close as they possibly could to saying a rate cut will ha...

Wednesday 21st August 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer   Financial Services Guide | Information on our services -   NAB It’s been another quiet session, with stocks taking a breather after an 8-day rally, with volumes for the S&P 25% below its 20-day average. Bond yields have pushed lower, which NAB’s Ken Crompton says is largely a response to Canada’s CPI numbers, which presente...

Tuesday 20th August 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer   Financial Services Guide | Information on our services -   NAB We are in the thick of the US and European holiday season, mixed with a dearth of data. Hence, shares are pushing higher, presumably on the hope of greater reassurance around rate cuts from the Fed at Jackson Hole. NAB’s Gavin Friend says markets wouldn’t react w...

Monday 19th August 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer   Financial Services Guide | Information on our services -   NAB Central bankers get together for the glitzy proceedings of the Jackson Hole Symposium this week. Will Jerome Powell use it s a springboard for more advice on how and when the Fed will cut rates? Probably not, says NAB’s Rodrigo Catril, given the focus on data in Fed de...

Friday 16th August 2024 Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here . A report last week from S&P Global highlights that the debt held by Australian states could exceed $600 billion later this year. Rebecca Hrvatin joins Phil to discuss this rise in debt and what it’s doing to credit ratings. Overspen...

Friday 16th August 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer   Financial Services Guide | Information on our services -   NAB US retail sales numbers out yesterday showed surprisingly strong spending in July. That’s pushed equities markedly higher. But NAB’s Rodrigo Catril says bond yields are up as markets see this retail strength as a sign that the US is not heading for a recession, which r...