NAB Morning Call

Friday 11th October 2024 Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here . Phil Suttle is an economist who has worked at JP Morgan, the Bank of England, the Fed, the World Bank, the IIF, Barclays Capital and Tudor Investments. These days he provides his own observations and analysis to paying subscribers, say...

Friday 11th October 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer   Financial Services Guide | Information on our services -   NAB After stronger than expected jobs numbers last week, the CPI data overnight shows inflation isn’t coming down quite as quickly as expected. The combination might suggest there’s less of a rush for the Fed to cut rates but NAB’s Tapas Strickland says there hasn’t been...

Thursday 10th October 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer   Financial Services Guide | Information on our services -   NAB Storm Milton hit the Florida coast at 1am ET. Despite that, and the continued risk of an Israeli attack on Iranian oil facilities, oil prices fell overnight. Obviously China demand is part of the picture here, but another ‘announcement’ is expected from Beijing...

Wednesday 9th October 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer   Financial Services Guide | Information on our services -   NAB Markets with any China connection have responded negatively to news from the National Development Reform Commission. An announcement was expected, and most will have assumed it would include a large swag of spending from the three trillion Yuan that was believed to...

Tuesday 8th October 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer   Financial Services Guide | Information on our services -   NAB Today markets are responding to a mix of adjustments to expectations for Fred rate cuts, alongside continued uncertainty about developments in the Middle East. Late in the day in the US a judge has added to downward moves in equities by ruling that Alphabet cannot blo...

Monday 7th October 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer   Financial Services Guide | Information on our services -   NAB The non-farm payrolls data on Friday in the US was a big upside surprise. It means there’s less need for any large cuts by the Fed who will be hoping they will have controlled inflation whilst steering the economy into a soft landing. That’s assuming the rise in jobs d...

Friday 4th October 2024 Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here . Gold has traditionally been seen as a hedge against inflation and geopolitical uncertainty. Yet, in the last few weeks we’ve seen gold repeatedly hitting new highs, even as inflation recedes. The response to the unrest in the Middle Eas...

Friday 4th October 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer   Financial Services Guide | Information on our services -   NAB Oil has risen sharply this morning after Joe Biden was asked about is support for an Israeli attack, if it was to target Iran’s oil facilities. NAB’s Taylor Nugent says the US President didn’t really answer the question, but it was enough for investors to fear that thi...

Thursday 3rd October 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer   Financial Services Guide | Information on our services -   NAB Today, Phil talks to NAB’s Ray Attrill about two hawks who seem to have metamorphosed into something a bit more dove-like. First, the ECB’s Isabel Schnabel, who has just about confirmed a rate cut for this month. Secondly, the BoJ’s Governor Ueda who seems to be happ...

Wednesday 2nd October 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer   Financial Services Guide | Information on our services -   NAB Markets moved swiftly into classic risk-off territory as Iran started firing missiles into Israeli airspace. Early reports suggest minimal damage and casualties, and markets retreated a little. NAB’s Skye Masters says its often the case with significant geopolitical...

Tuesday 1st October 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer   Financial Services Guide | Information on our services -   NAB Some of the biggest moves yesterday were hardly surprises. The sharp rise in Chinese equities and the fall in Japan. On China, NAB’s Gavin Friend wonders whether markets are too optimistic and whether there’s a pushing on a string element to some of the reforms there....

Monday 30th September 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer   Financial Services Guide | Information on our services -   NAB What impact will attacks in the Middle East have on markets now? Israel is working hard to neutralise Hezbollah and other Iranian proxy combatants, with attacks on Lebanon and Yemen. It’s the first question Phil put to NAB’s Tapas Strickland on this morning’s podcas...

Friday 27th September 2024 Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here . ETFs – exchange traded funds – are becoming increasingly popular. So who is buying them? What are they buying? Phil is joined by Chamath de Silva, Head of Fixed Income at Betashares, where he manages their fixed income ETFs port...

Friday 27th September 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer   Financial Services Guide | Information on our services -   NAB China is set to issue a lot of bonds to fire the long-awaited Bazooka. NAB’s Ray Attrill joins Phil to discuss the market reaction to the speculation that China is, at long last, ready to push ahead with a very sizeable fiscal stimulus. Oil behaved the opposite to w...

Thursday 26th September 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer   Financial Services Guide | Information on our services -   NAB The slight risk-on mood we saw after news of potential further stimulus measures in China has ebbed away a little today, particularly in the share market, where indices are generally lower in the US and Europe overnight. NAB’s Ken Crompton says there’s a bit of a...

Wednesday 25th September 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer   Financial Services Guide | Information on our services -   NAB There is still some uncertainty about the future direction of US policy, with the Fed’s Michelle Bowman still concerned about a potential return of inflation, whilst most other Fed members are worried about a downturn in employment having a broader impact on...

Tuesday 24th September 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer   Financial Services Guide | Information on our services -   NAB  Monday’s global PMIs were universally disappointing, but the downward trajectory was most pronounced in Europe and, in particularly Germany. It’s created a mixed story in bond movements today, even though equities have fared well. NAB’s Tapas Strickland descr...

Monday 23rd September 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer   Financial Services Guide | Information on our services -   NAB There were surprisingly small moves in bond yields on Friday, whilst investors in shares seemed to be momentarily reassessing their optimism after the 50bp cut from the Fed. Nonetheless, two more cuts are assumed this year, with a rising expectation that there will...

Friday 20th September 2024 Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here . From Super funds to family trusts, John Coombe, Executive Director at JANA, has been providing investment advice for well over three decades. He is one of Australia’s most highly regarded asset managers. So, what’s the secret to his...

Friday 20th September 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer   Financial Services Guide | Information on our services -   NAB Equity markets have responded positively to the mega-cut from the Fed yesterday, whist the Bank of England plays it cool, keeping rates on hold yesterday. Andrew Bailey said they should be able to reduce rates gradually over time, without giving any clear signal on...

Thursday 19th September 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer   Financial Services Guide | Information on our services -   NAB Perhaps not surprisingly the Fed opted for the 50bp cut. Markets responded sharply, but then rowed back shortly afterwards as Jerome Powell tried to downplay the significance of the move at the press conference that followed, saying this wasn’t a new pace just a r...

Wednesday 18th September 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer   Financial Services Guide | Information on our services -   NAB There have been no surprises in US economic data overnight. Retail sales, industrial production and manufacturing weren’t far off expectations. So, do they all point to a soft landing? And if that’s the scenario, why would the Fed delay a big rate cut? It’s...

Tuesday 17th September 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer   Financial Services Guide | Information on our services -   NAB Market pricing moved further in favour of a 50bpcut from the fed this week. Does that mean the Fed, who are expected to make at least one big cut before Christmas, side with the market? It makes it easier for them to walk through an open door, says JBWere’s Sally A...

Monday 16th September 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer   Financial Services Guide | Information on our services -   NAB Big or small, that’s the question this week. Will the Fed go for a 50bp cut? If the plan is to do that at some point this year, why not now? That’s one of the arguments being touted, which Phil discusses with NAB’s Ray Attrill. Certainly, equity markets seem to be e...

Friday 13th September 2024 Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here . The Labour Market Report is one of the most eagerly awaited monthly releases from the Australian Bureau of Statistics. It’s even more crucial at times like now, when it is so influential on central bank policy. But in many countries...