NAB Morning Call

Monday 30th June 2025 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer   Financial Services Guide | Information on our services -   NAB There’s a lot of focus on the US this week. The Big Beautiful Bill could reach it’s finish line before Independence Day on Friday. There are reports of progress towards trade deals with the likes of the India and the EU, even if Canada’s deal talks stalled over...

Friday 27th June 2025 Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here . This week Phil looks into the challenge of an ageing population. The most recent edition of the IMF’s World Economic Outlook devoted a chapter to what it calls the ‘Silver Economy’. We tend to see the declining ratio of taxpaying adu...

Friday 27th June 2025 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer   Financial Services Guide | Information on our services -   NAB The US dollar has hit a new multi-year low. Phil talks to NAB’s Rodrigo Catril about some of the factors driving the US currency down further. Part of it could be the speculation that President Trump will appoint Jerome Powell’s successor as Fed Chair, in the hope that h...

Thursday 26th June 2025 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer   Financial Services Guide | Information on our services -   NAB It won’t come as a complete surprise that NATO members agreed to up their defence spending to 5 percent on Wednesday. The bigger surprise might be if they keep that commitment once President Trump is no longer in office. We saw a bigger response locally to the sof...

Wednesday 25th June 2025 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer   Financial Services Guide | Information on our services -   NAB Oil prices are back down near multi-year lows, so is the US dollar, whilst equities are bouncing higher and getting close to all-time highs. Infact that happened for several well-known tech stocks. NAB’s Sally Auld says it reflects an assumption that the worst of the...

Tuesday 24th June 2025 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer   Financial Services Guide | Information on our services -   NAB An Iranian attack on US air bases in Qatar and Iraq actually forced oil prices lower. Much lower. Why? Well, even before it was confirmed by President Trump, it appears the attacks were orchestrated. That was confirmed when the President posted as much on social me...

Monday 23rd June 2025 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer   Financial Services Guide | Information on our services -   NAB You think it’d be a choppy start for markets today, following the weekend bombing of Iranian uranium enrichment facilities by the US. But NAB’s Tapas Strickland explains to Phil why the response might be a little tamer than you'd expect. He explains how many we...

Friday 20th June 2025 Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here . Research by CEDA (the Committee for Economic Development of Australia) shows that in the last fifty years or so the construction industry has not made the productivity gains experienced in manufacturing. In fact, the dwellings made by eac...

Friday 20th June 2025 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer   Financial Services Guide | Information on our services -   NAB Oil prices are still elevated over the question on whether the US will side with Israel in the war with Iran and the possible repercussions of such a move. But the US President has left the door open for negotiations, now saying he’ll decide on US involvement in the...

Thursday 19th June 2025 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer   Financial Services Guide | Information on our services -   NAB The Fed agree unanimously to keep rates on hold, but the expectation of two cuts this year was enough for shares to rise a little today before finishing flat, no doubt driven down by geopolitical uncertainty and more weak data. NAB’s Tapas Strickland says the one centr...

Wednesday 18th June 2025 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer   Financial Services Guide | Information on our services -   NAB Markets are squeamish today as fears mount that the US will become more involved in the war between Israel and Iran. Certainly, the optimism that the whole affair will be over in a hurry has diminished, with the US dollar higher, oil much higher and equities taki...

Tuesday 17th June 2025 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer   Financial Services Guide | Information on our services -   NAB Markets seem optimistic that a resolution between Israel and Iran will be found. NAB’s Rodrigo Catril says there’s a general feeling that Iran has its back against the wall and is trying to communicate that they want to d e-escalate the situation. Despite today’s market...

Monday 16th June 2025 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer   Financial Services Guide | Information on our services -   NAB Since Israel fired bombs into Iran on Friday there has been bombardment on both sides. NAB’s Ray Attrill talks about how the US dollar has resumed its safe haven status, with the Aussie losing ground as risk-off sentiment rises. Phil asks whether this pattern c...

Friday 13th June 2025 Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here . Data from CreditorWatch shows that almost one in ten hospitality businesses in Australia shut down in the 12 months to April. Whilst the growth in insolvencies has levelled off this year, it doesn’t mean the worst is over. Michael Fi...

Friday 13th June 2025 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer   Financial Services Guide | Information on our services -   NAB Producer prices in the US, just like CPI, seem to have had very little impact from tariffs so far. But jobless claims are rising.  NAB’s ray Attrill says the continuing claims are similar to recession levels. All the more reason for the Fed to cut rates -...

Thursday 12th June 2025 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer   Financial Services Guide | Information on our services -   NAB Two big bits of news overnight, First, a trade deal has been reached between the US and China, that secures supplies of China’s rare earths for the US, and allows China to import goods that had previously been blocked. But, as NAB’s Sally Auld says, it really is a stat...

Wednesday 11th June 2025 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer   Financial Services Guide | Information on our services -   NAB The UK has grabbed a bit of the focus overnight. All eyes are on the US-China trade talks in London. Equities have been helped by the positive sentiment coming from US trade secretary Howard Lutnick, although NAB’s Rodrigo Catril wonders whether the US Commerce Secret...

Tuesday 10th June 2025 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer   Financial Services Guide | Information on our services -   NAB Markets had been preparing for a softer jobs print in the US on Friday. NAB’s Taylor Nugent joins Phil to talk about a result that was better than expected, but there are still plenty of signs of weakness. Perhaps not enough, though, to support President Trump’s ca...

Friday 6th June 2025 Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here . Should we be worried about the long-term effects of the Trump presidency? The OECD this week downgraded global growth forecasts because of the uncertainty brought about by his tariff regime. It’s also seeing investors diluting their e...

Friday 6th June 2025 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer   Financial Services Guide | Information on our services -   NAB There hasn’t been a lot of love lost between President Xi and President Trump, but a 90 minute phone call might be the start of a journey of reconciliation. But US equity markets seem to be responding more to the end of the Trump-Musk bromance, as threats being made to Te...

Thursday 5th June 2025 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer   Financial Services Guide | Information on our services -   NAB Markets have reacted to a softer than expected US Services ISM, which unexpectedly dipped into contraction territory (just). That’s on top of the JOLTs numbers this week that showed a rise in  unfilled vacancies, weaker manufacturing numbers earlier in the wee...

Wednesday 4th June 2025 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer   Financial Services Guide | Information on our services -   NAB US equity markets got off to a bad start when the OECD released a downgrade to its growth forecasts but NAB’s Skye Masters says there was a change in mood when the JOLTs data was released. An expected fall in job openings didn’t materialise. There was further good news...

Tuesday 3rd June 2025 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer   Financial Services Guide | Information on our services -   NAB President Trump clearly has no intention to roll back on his doubling of steel tariffs on Wednesday. On Truth Social this morning he declared that he didn’t want America’s future to be built with “shoddy steel” from Shanghai, rather than the “strength and pride” of Pitts...

Monday 2nd June 2025 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer   Financial Services Guide | Information on our services -   NAB As NAB’s Taylor Nugent points out, the announcement by President Trump of a doubling in steel tariffs from Wednesday happened after the US market close. OPEC+ also announced an increase in production over the week. So, the week kicks off with more uncertainty. It finishes...

Friday 30th May 2025 Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here . Have we seen the worst of the US-China tariff dispute? Yan Wang, Chief Emerging Markets & China Strategist at Alpine Macro seems to think so. Talking from Montreal on this weekend’s podcast, Yan explains why China needs to achieve its...