NAB Morning Call

Tuesday 29th July 2025 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer   Financial Services Guide | Information on our services -   NAB The euphoria over a US—EU trade deal didn’t last long. It has helped catapult the US dollar higher, but at the expense of a big fall in the Euro, with European equities also well down. NAB’s Ray Attrill joins Phil to talk through the about turn, with the realisatio...

Monday 28th July 2025 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer   Financial Services Guide | Information on our services -   NAB President Trump announced a trade deal with the EU on Sunday, that sees a 15% tariff on most goods, cars included. Aluminium and steel remain at 50%. In exchange, according to Bloomberg, Europe will not levy any tariffs and will invest an extra $600bn in the US and spend...

Friday 25th July 2025 Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here . This week Rod Sims, chair of the think tank The Super Power Institute, joins Phil to talk about Australia’s green iron opportunity. He says we have all the ingredients – the raw materials and the environment – to produce green iron, rathe...

Friday 25th July 2025 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer   Financial Services Guide | Information on our services -   NAB President Trump is stepping up the pressure on Jerome Powell as he ‘drops by’ the Fed, before heading off to the UK for the weekend. Markets have been a little more concerned about PMIs and central banks, though. The ECB kept rates on hold but, as NAB’s Ray Attrill...

Thursday 24th July 2025 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer   Financial Services Guide | Information on our services -   NAB Japan has a deal, even if the details right now seem a little sketchy. NAB’s Gavin Friend joins Phil to talk through an arrangement that sees Japan’s exports taxed at 15%, a welcome reduction for the country’s automakers. There are murmurs that the EU will reach a simi...

Wednesday 23rd July 2025 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer   Financial Services Guide | Information on our services -   NAB Tech earnings will be a focus of the week, with Tesla, IBM and Alphabet a day away now. But markets have responded favourably to earnings results so far, including a strong result from Coca Cola. But, as NAB’s Tapas Strickland points out in today’s podcast, it was a d...

Tuesday 22nd July 2025 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer   Financial Services Guide | Information on our services -   NAB US equities rose to new highs in this session, buoyed by positive earnings results, but pulled back, perhaps on the reality check that Liberation Day Mark 2 is a little over a week away, The European Commission has said they will be meeting early next week to discuss co...

Monday 21st July 2025 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer   Financial Services Guide | Information on our services -   NAB It looks like Japan’s Prime Minister Ishiba has lost his majority, according to exit polls on Sunday. NAB’s Skye Masters says it was already priced into markets, with 30-year bond yields reaching record highs last week, but it comes at a bad time as Japan tries to negoti...

Friday 18th July 2025 Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here . Who is going to ultimately benefit from Donald Trump’s policies – the tariffs and the bIg Beautiful Bill. Phil Dobbie talks to economist Phil Suttle, in Washington DC, about the future for the US economy and the impact on tariffs om the g...

Friday 18th July 2025 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer   Financial Services Guide | Information on our services -   NAB The S&P hit a new high today, passing 65,300for the first time. Why? Well, the economic data out over night was largely good news. Retail sales were stronger than expected in June, the Philly Fed Manufacturing Index perked up, initial jobless claims fell. A...

Thursday17th July 2025 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer   Financial Services Guide | Information on our services -   NAB Donald Trump made a TV career from firing people and there has been increasing speculation lately that he is ready to dump the Fed chair. That speculation was heightened on Wednesday when lawmakers claimed he had pointed to a letter asking Jerome Powell to leave. But he...

Wednesday 16th July 2025 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer   Financial Services Guide | Information on our services -   NAB President Trump suggested that the latest US inflation numbers are weak and that the Fed should cut by3 points - presumably 300bp. But, as NAB’s ken Crompton outlines, the data is more likely to delay the Fed. Why? Because markets responded positively to the data init...

Tuesday 15th July 2025 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer   Financial Services Guide | Information on our services -   NAB Once again, US markets seem unphased by the log list of tariffs from the US president, perhaps because he has indicated he is willing to negotiate, and it’s just seen as a negotiating tactic. Phil talks to NAB’s Rodrigo Catril about whether we’ll see signs of the impact...

Monday 14th July 2025 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer   Financial Services Guide | Information on our services -   NAB Over the weekend President Trump announced 30% tariffs on the EU and Mexico starting from August 1st. As NAB’s Taylor Nugent suggests, it’s another delay in the implementation of tariffs and it has stopped the EU from enforcing retaliatory measures planned for this week...

Friday 11h July 2025 Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here . The ABS is abandoning its monthly retail trade numbers, in favour of a more in-depth analysis of consumption in the revamped monthly Household Spending report. There’s a fundamental difference between the two. The Retail Trade data was bas...

Friday 11th July 2025 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer   Financial Services Guide | Information on our services -   NAB Once again markets have shrugged off a tariff proclamation from President Trump. 50% could be levied on imports from Brazil, not because of trade (Brazil has a deficit) but in response to a trial against former President Bolsonaro. It’s a new direction for Trump’s t...

Thursday 10th July 2025 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer   Financial Services Guide | Information on our services -   NAB This has to be one of the quietest sessions in quite a while. President Trump did send out more tariff letters, but avoiding alarming demands and aimed at relatively minor trading partners. There was a stronger than expected response to a 10-year Treasury auction...

Wednesday 9th July 2025 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer   Financial Services Guide | Information on our services -   NAB President Trump has made more proclamations, including a 50 percent tariff on copper imports. A deal is supposedly progressing with the EU, which could see trade in aircraft and parts exempt and a reduction for some car manufacturers. If the deal falls through there’s...

Tuesday 8th July 2025 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer   Financial Services Guide | Information on our services -   NAB President Trump has announced a new wave of tariffs for a handful of countries, closely aligned to the Liberation Day rates. Of those announced Japan and South Korea are front and centre, each subject to a 25% base rate. 30% is being reapplied to South Africa. ...

Monday 7th July 2025 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer   Financial Services Guide | Information on our services -   NAB The letters go in the post today, apparently, containing the personally selected tariff that will be applied to US trading nations. The good news is that they probably won’t apply until 1st August, giving time for negotiations. Meanwhile, Scott Bessent says the US is aimi...

Friday 4th July 2025 Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here . President Trump has fallen in approval ratings since taking office. Does that mean he’ll lose seats in the House or the Senate in the Mid-Terms next year? It’s still a way off, of course, but it would be useful to know whether the Presiden...

Friday 4th July 2025 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer   Financial Services Guide | Information on our services -   NAB Markets responded to what seemed like a strong set of payrolls numbers in the US, although the rate of new private jobs fell. Still, the unemployment rate also nudged lower. Phil asks NAB’s Tapas Strickland what this means for market pricing for Fed cuts this year. T...

Thursday 3rd July 2025 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer   Financial Services Guide | Information on our services -   NAB The S&P hit a new high, helped by a post from President Trump saying he has tied up a trade deal with Vietnam. The bad news is that the deal still hits them with tariffs of between 20 and 40%, whilst accepting US goods tariff-free. And the President says a deal with...

Wednesday 2nd July 2025 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer   Financial Services Guide | Information on our services -   NAB President Trump's big, beautiful bill has passed through the Senate with the narrowest of margins and now goes back to the House with a chance that it will get approval by the 4th of July. NAB’s Rodrigo Catril says the passage of the bill could be partially responsible...

Tuesday 1st July 2025 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer   Financial Services Guide | Information on our services -   NAB Canada has caved (the White House’s choice of words) over their digital services tax, so trade talks can resume with the US. Phil asks NAB’s Ray Attrill what this means for other countries with the same tax - many countries in Europe, the UK and, yes, Australia too.&nbsp...