Moving Parts Weekly Commodity Market Update

Argentina cuts export taxes in a big bearish move for grains. And U.S. tariffs on Colombia? Not yet, as Trump once again uses his favorite bargaining chip.

The US dollar is back down after more moderate predictions for Trump’s tariff plan, while the US Treasury finally issued preliminary guidance on 45Z Biofuel Tax Credit.

We had a big news week! Today we discuss Friday’s USDA WASDE report, the Treasury’s long-awaited guidance on 45Z tax credits, and the exploding prices in the SBO market.

USDA will release one of their biggest reports of the year this week with the January WASDE. Today we preview that report as well as discussing a soaring US dollar, weather in South America, and more.

Rain has picked up in South America since our initial dry fears…perhaps too much rain. We also discuss the strong US Ag exports this year, the strong USD, and what to look for heading into the new year.

This week we take a look at the NOPA crush report, wheat, dairy and the weekly look at weather.

The Palm market continues to go crazy, with soybean oil comparatively cheap. Outside of that, not a huge news week. We also discuss a strong USD, potential 45Z implications, and the December WASDE which comes out later this morning.

Specs are selling again! All major ag commodities in the US had net short positions through 11/26, while the Palm market is back up again. Weather in South America is looking great and production estimates are being raised.

More tariffs?? Today we talk about President-elect Trump’s proposed 25% tariffs on all Canadian and Mexican imports. Meanwhile, Soybean oil and Palm oil prices continued their plunge downward last week…have we hit the top?

Veg oil prices were back down this week after a BIG rally in previous weeks. China may have sent their first trade war strike, and conflict is heating up in Ukraine and Russia.

Happy Veterans Day. Today we discuss the USDA November WASDE results (and a bit of a soybean surprise), strong US exports, and a continuing veg oil rally.

ELECTION DAY! Today we preview a busy week ahead, discussing the potential Ag & Commodity implications of this presidential election (biofuels policy, tariffs, etc.), a Fed FOMC meeting (potential rate cut), and the USDA’s November WASDE report.

Crude oil plunges as tensions ease up a bit in the Middle East, while US corn and soybean oil exports are looking SOLID.

US harvest is moving quickly; not quite at the record pace we thought, but still the fastest since 2012 and looking good. We’re finally seeing some rains again across the great plains, as well as the dry areas of Brazil, with some more in the forecast.

Last week’s October WASDE was free from any big surprises, but today we’ll talk about harvest progress, more buying in the spec market, and fall weather finally showing up here in the US.

The US soybean harvest is nearly halfway done! The specs were back to buying last week, especially in the soy markets. Another hurricane heading towards Florida and we talk about it its potential impact on markets.

Everything was up last week! USDA’s September Stocks report came out yesterday, the fourth & final quarterly stocks report for the spring planted crops, and all grains are looking bigger than last year. Today the crew talks about the Stocks report, potential strikes, weather uncertainty, and many other possible market movers as we continue through early harvest season.

Corn, wheat and the soy complex all rallied on Monday. The Fed made a BIG rate cut (50-basis points) last Wednesday and signaled more cuts to follow. US corn and soybean harvest is in full swing.

Today, we cover last week’s unsurprising September WASDE, which was a bit bearish corn, and yesterday’s NOPA Crush report, which was a bit disappointing. We also touch on this week’s Fed meeting, the bullish spec market, and some escalation in the Russia/Ukraine conflict.

Today, we preview the USDA’s September WASDE, which comes out this Thursday. It is the first report of the year with actual USDA personal “boots-on-the-ground”.  Crude oil has fallen back below $70 for the first time since January. And corn harvest has officially begun.

US corn harvest is underway. Energy prices fell again and erased all the gains for the year on weak Chinese demand and a planned OPEC production hike in October. China and Canada have entered a trade war, with Canadian tariffs on Chinese EV’s, steel, and aluminum.

Last week’s ProFarmer crop tour showed big corn numbers and even bigger soybean numbers. Looking at the economy, the US$ is in decline as the Fed looks poised to pivot course and cut rates at the next FOMC meeting on September 18th.

The Pro Farmer Crop Tour is underway across the US grain belt. This is a corn & soybean tour to estimate just how big, or small U.S. crops really are. Follow along by searching #pftour24 on X. The Canadian Railroad Strike continues and roughly 10,000 union workers will be locked out this week barring a last minute deal. 94% of Canadian grain moves by rail. Brace for impact!

The USDA's August WASDE report showed BIG grain crops, especially Soybeans. Uncertainty looms with several international conflicts brewing which may affect commodity markets going forward

Major selloffs in the equity markets are leading to talks of potential emergency rate cuts by the Fed. On the Ag side, many analysts continue to raise their crop estimates as yields are looking great for the grains. We'll be discussing the August 12 WASDE in the coming days as well.