Moving Parts Weekly Commodity Market Update

Heatwave! We discuss some hotter and dryer weather on the way, the latest crop conditions, and what’s new in the U.S. trade deal saga.

Today, we talk about how big this corn crop could get given these ideal conditions. We’ll also recap the Friday’s July WASDE report, what’s going on in dairy, and of course more tariff talk.

Rain makes grain, and crop conditions are looking pretty fancy! We also discuss Tariff Day (part 2) where the 10% broad tariffs are expiring and US reciprocal tariffs take effect, and Jay will take us through the big upcoming reports in Dairy.

USDA 6/30 Reports: Move along folks...nothing to see here (but we’ll still give you the rundown). We’ll also discuss crop conditions, better weather this past week, and what’s new in the dairy market with Jay.

Biofuel policy: now what? The SBO price rally has paused waiting for more information from the EPA. In the meantime, energy markets are tumbling despite the rising tensions in the Middle East, and U.S. planting is almost wrapped up…time for growing seasons!

KABOOM! The EPA released their RVO mandate proposals at MUCH higher levels than trade expectations and the market reacted accordingly – 2 limit-up trading days for soybean oil! We’ll also discuss the June WASDE, the NOPA May Crush report, and much more.

Chinese/US trade talks continue, planting progress is nearing the finish line and Jay updates dairy.

U.S. planting pace has slowed but still looking pretty good! Renewable Fuel Standard updates on hold again… We’ll also give our weekly quick tariff update, discuss markets as usual, and more!

US plant 2025 remains ahead of average pace and conditions are mostly favorable.  Also…Biofuel policy? EU tariff policy? The last few weeks have brought more rumors and uncertainty but nothing definitive.

Lots to discuss today! US planting pace (good), early season weather (good), tariff deals (good), Wheat Quality Council Tour (good), RUS/UKR peace deal (maybe?), and RVO mandates (still TBD)

A LOT to cover this week! Malaysian Palm Oil Board report comes in bearish, we have a House version of the tax bill that includes changes to the 45Z AND we got the May WASDE from USDA on Monday.

2025 US planting is going strong and made good progress this past week. Also on this call: SBO stocks shenanigans, RVO rumors, and the latest updates in the trade wars

Today, the crew talks about the good start to US planting season, the big jump in SBO prices, the big plunge in wheat, and more…

US spring planting is off to a nice start and ahead of average pace. Tariffs are still a big story but a bit quieter this week as several big trading partners are negotiating new trade deals with the US.

The tariff excitement continues…reciprocal tariffs delayed 90 days to give countries a chance to negotiate, USMCA goods in Canada and Mexico are off the hook, and things in China keep ramping up!

Tariffs, OPEC & Biofuels – Oh my! Plenty to talk about as reciprocal tariffs are set to go into effect this week, OPEC+ members are increasing oil supply, and the April WASDE comes out on Thursday

Liberation Day approaches! That is the name Trump has given to April 2, when his reciprocal tariff plans will go into place. Details remain elusive…We’ll also discuss the USDA’s Planting Intentions & March 1 Stocks Report that came out yesterday.

March 31 Reports! Next Monday the USDA will release their March 1 Stocks and Prospective Plantings report (either the 1st or 2nd in terms of most market volatility on report day of all the USDA’s reports). Today we’ll preview that report, as well as touch on the impact of US Port charges on Chinese-made vessels, the Fed meeting, and much more.

This week’s NOPA crush report showed sharply lower crush rates than expected. Also, are peace talks on the table? Trump is set to call Putin this week, stay tuned…

The US tariffs on Canada and Mexico have been delayed, but Canada is in a trade war of its own with China! Meanwhile, it seems like everything was down yesterday amid recession and tariff uncertainty.

North American tariffs start TODAY. March 4 is the date that 25% on Mexican and Canadian imports are set to go into effect, with “reciprocal tariffs” set planned for April 2. We also saw USDA Crop Insurance prices set this week, and a HUGE USDA January Crush report.

The March 4 deadline for Canada and Mexico tariffs is fast approaching, will the 25% tariffs go into effect or be kicked further down the road? Meanwhile, South American weather is improving, and the USDA will release their first 2025/26 acreage projections later this week.

Reciprocal tariffs? POTUS has announced plans to equalize tariffs with all major trading partners. Meanwhile in South America, Brazilian corn planting has made a TON of progress this week…Argentina? Not so much.

The Trump Tariff train continues, as POTUS announced 25% tariffs on all imported steel and aluminum, which could lead to retaliatory tariffs by some of our trading partners. Weather-wise, Brazil remains a bit too wet and Argentina remains a bit too dry…the corn and soybeans need some help down there!

Trump tariffs 2.0! The Mexico and Canada tariffs were delayed for at least 30 days after negotiations yesterday, while tariffs with China and EU are still forthcoming. A lot of uncertainty remains, stay tuned!