Moving Markets

The US Federal Reserve is expected to raise its key interest rate to 5.25% today. However, with markets pricing in a rate cut by the end of the year, all eyes will be on the Fed's statement and Jerome Powell's press conference. Yesterday's sell-off in US regional banks and the ongoing debt ceiling debate will make his comments all the more important. Mathieu Racheter, Head of Equity Strategy, note...

Central bank rate hike decisions are in the spotlight this week, but equity market sentiment has picked up somewhat in recent days. Our Chief Economist, David Kohl, shares his thoughts on what the markets want to hear from central banks and why the risk of a US recession has increased. And Next Generation Research's Manuel Villegas explains why he believes that regulatory action in the crypto spac...

While there are fresh jitters in the banking sector, tech stocks are lifting the broader market. Meanwhile, investors are digesting yesterday’s US GDP data while awaiting the Federal Reserve’s favourite inflation gauge – the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) deflator due out later today. Tim Gagie, Head of FX & PM Solutions in Geneva, joins today’s show to give his views on how central b...

With the Q1 earnings season garnering the attention of investors this week, big-tech earnings are helping to bolster sentiment amid lingering concerns about the health of US regional banks. Carsten Menke, Head of Next Generation Research, shares his thoughts on the recent rally in gold, and Ronny Kaufmann, CIO Strategy & Investment Analysis, gives us an update on the latest thoughts of our CIO...

Just as the banking sector was recovering from the turmoil that engulfed it last month, First Republic Bank is making fresh headlines with its divestment plans. Meanwhile, the so-called FAANMG stocks have started their fair share of earnings reports, which showed that quarterly results were largely driven by their established search and cloud computing businesses, and they also used their investor...

While financial markets’ overall ups and downs remain rather muted, there is a lot happening on a single company level with about 180 S&P companies reporting this week alone. Listen to what Leonardo Pellandini, Equity Strategist thinks about the current earnings season. And in addition, there is news about crypto regulation – Manuel Villegas from Next Generation Research shares his thoughts ab...

On the earnings front, Coca-Cola and First Republic Bank, which has been at the centre of a crisis of confidence in mid-sized US banks following the collapse of SVB, will be reporting today. The major US technology companies will start reporting tomorrow, as well as SMI heavyweights. And on Friday the Bank of Japan meets, and the US Federal Reserve releases its preferred inflation indicator, the c...

US stocks fell and US Treasuries rallied after the release of disappointing economic reports and some weaker than expected earnings. March inflation figures from Japan were slightly higher than expected. Bence Boldvai, FX & PM Advisory, comments on the Yen and next week's Bank of Japan meeting, as well as other issues driving the currency markets at the moment. 00:14 Introduction by Helen Free...

With calm returning to financial markets, investors’ attention turned to corporate earnings. L’Oréal and Morgan Stanley came in ahead of expectations, while Tesla missed expectations, as it plans to further drop the price of its vehicles. Carsten Menke, Head of Next Generation Research, provides an update on industrial metals, and Nicolas Jordan, CIO Strategy & Investment Analysis, gives us an...

The S&P 500 was flat on the day yesterday as there was a mixed bag of earnings. Although the VIX index, a fear gauge for US equities, dropped to its lowest level since the start of the year, a Bank of America survey nevertheless showed that global fund managers have their equity allocations at their lowest versus bonds since the Great Financial Crisis. Mathieu Racheter, Head of Equity Strategy...

Stock markets keep on climbing the wall of worry, with investors seemingly less concerned than equity strategists, as highlighted by major volatility indices printing new lows. Higher yields are probably one of the reasons for the rebound of the US dollar over the last two business days. Find out in today’s show where the currency is heading next, according to our Head of Technical Analysis, Mensu...

Economic data showing some easing on the inflation front has lifted equity markets around the world, but investors are now turning their attention to the earnings season, with some of the big US banks reporting today. In the bond markets, US interest rates have begun a consolidation process that could extend through to next week and into the pre-FOMC period of silence. David Kohl, Chief Economist,...

Softening US inflation suggests the US Federal Reserve is likely to raise interest rates by a further 25 basis points at its next meeting in May, although its rate hike cycle may be nearing the end. Mathieu Racheter, Head of Equity Strategy Research, explains why we are now upgrading the global communications sector to Overweight, and Nicolas Jordan, CIO Strategy & Investment Analysis, gives u...

While Tech shares remained under pressure, closing down for the 5th time in 6 days yesterday, the rest of the market traded rangebound ahead of today’s main data point, the US inflation report for March. Dario Messi from Fixed Income Research shares his thoughts on expected US inflation data and Tim Gagie, Head of FX & PM solutions talks about his thoughts on the latest ups and downs in the cu...

Non-farm payroll data out of the US on Friday saw hiring growth moderating and wage rises easing. In China, data published today revealed muted inflation as the consumer price index rose just 0.7% year on year in March, weaker than the 1% forecast. Investors are now watching out for US CPI figures (Wednesday) and PPI data (Thursday) for signs of whether or not the Fed is about to pause or even end...

Stock markets are torn between the rising recession risks and expectations that yields will fall - defensive sectors have outperformed over the last few hours and US Treasury bonds have continued their impressive rally. Carsten Menke, our Head of Next Generation Research, shares his views on the surprise OPEC+ oil output cut, and Nicolas Jordan from our CIO Office talks about how to tackle the cur...

US stocks snapped a four-day winning streak yesterday as concerns about the banking sector and the broader economic outlook persist. In addition, comments from Federal Reserve officials about higher interest rates for longer are further dampening sentiment at a time when Treasuries are coming off one of their most volatile quarters ever. Markus Allenspach, Head of Fixed Income Research, joins toda...

US equities finished mixed in trading yesterday, as investors weighed the weaker-than-expected ISM manufacturing data against inflation concerns following OPEC+’s plan to cut oil output. Australian equities extend gains for a seventh straight day, following the Reserve Bank of Australia’s decision to leave interest rates unchanged at 3.6%. Our Chief Economist David Kohl provides us with the latest...

OPEC+ announced an unexpected cut in oil production of more than a million barrels per day, breaking its promise to maintain supply stability and introducing a new risk to the global economy. In company news, after completing its takeover of Credit Suisse, UBS is expected to reduce its workforce by 20% to 30%; and Tesla has fallen short of Elon Musk's long-term goal of 50% annual growth despite re...

US large-cap equities had another strong day, and the Biden administration wants to strengthen banking regulation. China’s non-manufacturing PMI data release points towards the country’s economic recovery gaining strength. Yet, for trading action today all eyes will be on the release of the Core US PCE Deflator, the US Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation measure, at 14:30 CET. Carsten Menke, Hea...

Global equities advanced yesterday, and investors are now turning their focus to tomorrow’s core PCE deflator data. The Bank of England has warned that the UK financial system urgently needs to be made more resilient. Nicolas Jordan from CIO & Strategy Analysis provides us with the latest from the Julius Baer Investment Committee. And we have an update from Tim Gagie, our Head of FX&PM Sol...

With nerves calmed, traders have started to reassess the odds of additional interest rate hikes in Europe and the US. Leonardo Pellandini, Equity Strategy Research, explains why he believes in a comeback for quality growth stocks, and Dario Messi, Fixed Income Research, highlights where fixed income investors can now find value. 00:14 Introduction by Lucija Caculovic (Investment Writing) 00:34 Mar...

With news of the prospect of further support from US authorities, there were signs of investors trying to move on from the regional banking crisis yesterday. The DJIA and the S&P 500 index both rose, although the Nasdaq Composite fell. Our Chief Economist, David Kohl, shares his thoughts on the economic outlook and the impact of the banking turmoil, and then Manuel Villegas, Next Generation Re...

Whilst US markets closed last week on a high, Asian markets were more circumspect overnight and sentiment in China was dented by declining industrial profits data. Although it has been announced that First Citizens Bank & Trust Co is buying Silicon Valley Bank’s deposits and loans, nervousness persists in the banking sector. In today's episode, our Head of Technical Analysis, Mensur Pocinci, u...

Bank stocks have held down overall stock markets over the past hours as traders remain wary of further potentially disruptive news from the sector. Short-dated government bonds rallied after several central banks hiked rates yesterday. David Kohl, our Chief Economist, puts these moves into perspective and Tim Gagie, our Head of FX&PM Solutions in Geneva, summarises his thoughts on the week in...