Moving Markets

The S&P 500 index in the US entered bull market territory yesterday, up 20% since its October 2022 low, on optimism that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates on hold for the time being. In contrast, a rate hike in Switzerland on 22nd June appears to be a done deal, setting the Swiss franc up for a rally, especially against the US dollar, as Tim Gagie, Head of FX & PM Solutions Gene...

The Bank of Canada joined the Reserve Bank of Australia by resuming rate hikes yesterday. Following the surprise 25-basis-point hike, US Treasury bonds sold off.  India’s government bonds also sold off despite the central bank there not hiking rates, but the Sensex stock index is heading towards record highs. Japan’s government bond yields also rose following news that Japan’s economy grew an annu...

Straight after the Chinese authorities asked the country’s largest banks to lower their deposit rates, China’s trade data disappointed, with both imports and exports falling. But at least there is some positive geopolitical news as US Secretary of State Antony Blinken plans to visit China. Meanwhile, US equities enjoyed some support yesterday, with the S&P 500 closing at its highest level in 2...

The US Securities and Exchange Commission has sued cryptocurrency exchange Binance and its CEO Changpeng Zhao for US securities violations. Our Chief Economist David Kohl talks about the risk of a recession in the US, and Manuel Villegas, Next Generation Research, provides an update on the digital assets space.  00:14 Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing) 00:42 Markets wrap-up by Jonti...

US equities gained on Friday on the back of the deal to raise the debt ceiling and a mixed bag of economic reports that suggested the Federal Reserve would hold off on raising interest rates at its June meeting. Saudi Arabia said it would cut oil production by an additional 1 million barrels per day after the OPEC+ meeting, while Turkey has a new market-friendly finance minister. Mensur Pocinci, H...

Although this week's employment data was generally stronger and US manufacturing remains under pressure, equities and bonds broadly rallied yesterday as the outlook for central banks pausing on interest rate hikes brightened. Tim Gagie, Head of FX & PM Solutions Geneva, talks about how this could affect the US dollar, and Carsten Menke, Head of Next Generation Research, has a guess as to which...

The US House of Representatives passed a bill late yesterday to suspend the USD 31.4 trillion debt ceiling. The bill will now pass to the Senate just days before Monday’s US default deadline. Norbert Rücker, Head of Macro & Next Generation Research, provides us with an update on oil, and Nicolas Jordan, from the CIO Strategy & Investment Analysis team, shares the latest thoughts of our CIO...

China's economic recovery weakened in May as manufacturing activity slumped, prompting investors to sell stocks and call for more stimulus to boost growth. UK business confidence fell for the first time in three months as faster-than-expected inflation figures weighed on firms' sentiment about the economy. Eirini Tsekeridou from Fixed Income Research provides insight into our views on both Greek a...

Futures markets have reacted with cautious optimism to the fact that President Joe Biden and House Speaker Kevin McCarthy finally reached an agreement on a deal to raise the US debt ceiling this weekend. Nevertheless, they now face the challenge of getting the bill passed by the House of Representatives before 5th June. Our Head of Fixed Income Research, Markus Allenspach, examines the deal and it...

The tech sector rallied strongly yesterday, while other sectors and the broader market were flat to slightly lower. This followed the upbeat outlook on AI-related demand from the US chip developer Nvidia. Meanwhile, negotiations over the US debt ceiling increase are heating up as time is running out for politicians to find a solution. And Tim Gagie, our Head of FX & PM Solutions in Geneva, tal...

US ratings agency Fitch put the United States’ AAA bond rating on negative watch yesterday, saying that the debt ceiling negotiations have raised the risks that the government could miss payments on some of its obligations. The impact was felt by the major US indices which all closed lower, but Nvidia’s surprisingly good results did provide a boost to Nasdaq futures later. Norbert Rücker, Head of...

Global equity markets suffer losses after continued US debt-ceiling negotiations ended without a deal yesterday. This increases the likelihood that the House and the Senate will both have to vote on a deal next week to prevent the US from defaulting on its debt obligations. David Kohl, Chief Economist, shares his insights into the eurozone’s latest flash purchasing managers' index data and what th...

The US debt ceiling negotiations are still stealing the spotlight and while House Speaker Kevin McCarthy and US President Joe Biden had a “productive” meeting yesterday, they have not yet reached an agreement. Markus Allenspach, our Head of Fixed Income Research, joins today’s episode to explain whether he thinks a deal will be reached in time and why no-one can nail down an ‘X-date’ for when the...

The S&P 500 is at its highest level this year and the German DAX index is at an all-time high. This week, the US debt ceiling, US & eurozone interest rates, and US-China tensions are likely to be in focus. China has announced that it will ban some sales of chips from the US semiconductor company Micron Technology, even as President Biden said he expected ties with China to improve very sho...

The S&P 500 Index is trading at its highest level in 9 months and US Treasuries are falling as the likelihood of an end to the US debt ceiling impasse has increased in recent hours. This has implications for the US dollar and metals, as Tim Gagie, our Head of FX and PM solutions in Geneva, points out. And Carsten Menke, our Head of Next Generation Research, talks about the latest action in cry...

The S&P 500 closed down 0.6% yesterday. Comments from Federal Reserve officials on whether further interest rate hikes will be necessary in light of strong economic data releases, and the ongoing uncertainty over the debt ceiling drove equities lower. Dario Messi, Fixed Income Research, provides our view on the ongoing US debt ceiling negotiations, noting that we are working on the assumption...

US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen has warned that the US government will default on its payments by 1 June unless the debt ceiling is raised, putting pressure on Congressional Republicans and the White House to reach a deal. Eirini Tsekeridou, Fixed Income Research, shares her insights into the Turkish elections and the market impact, and Carsten Menke, Head of Next Generation Research, gives an...

US stocks barely moved on Friday. President Joe Biden, House Speaker Kevin McCarthy, and other congressional leaders are planning to meet on Tuesday to discuss budget negotiations in order to avoid a US government default. In the Turkish presidential election, President Erdogan failed to win a majority of the votes, leaving him with 49.3% of the votes and his opponent, Kemal Kilicdaroglu, with 45%...

From concerns about US regional banks to the US debt-ceiling debate, the Bank of England’s interest rate hike and the raft of news from tech companies, there are plenty of headlines for investors to absorb. Tim Gagie, Head of FX & PM Solutions Geneva, joins today’s episode to shed some light on the latest developments in currencies and metals markets, and Leonardo Pellandini, Equity Strategist...

Both the US and China have announced CPI inflation data in the last 24 hours and the headline numbers showed inflation moderating. The market reaction was muted with tech stocks being the main beneficiaries; the US dollar weakened, and US Treasuries rallied. Traders are now focused on whether a solution to the US debt default possibility can be found before 1st June. Norbert Rücker, Head of Macro...

President Joe Biden and congressional Republicans have made little tangible progress in averting a first-ever US debt default, but promised negotiations that would open the door to a possible deal. Meanwhile, the ECB has to do more to bring inflation back to its 2% target, even as it waits to see the full impact of the measures taken so far. Fixed income analyst, Dario Messi provides an update on...

US equities ended the day little changed on Monday, despite the Federal Reserve's Senior Loan Officer Survey showing tightening credit conditions for both households and firms, as well as declining collateral values. In a sign of confidence in Apple, the company was able to tap the bond market with a bond that matures only in 2053. All eyes are now on tomorrow's US inflation report. Manuel Villega...

The trading week has started on a positive note with Asia Pacific stocks trading higher on improved sentiment after a solid US labour market report and the overall better than expected earnings season. US government yields are up on the prospect of the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates higher for longer, but our Head of Technical Analysis, Mensur Pocinci, still believes that the overall direc...

As if investors didn't already have enough to digest this week, with interest rate hikes from the major central banks and the ongoing earnings season, there was a fresh sell-off in US regional banks which only added to events. However, investors seemed to quickly regain their composure and this volatility just highlights the fragility of the market. With oil suffering some declines this week, Norb...

The US central bank raised its benchmark interest rate by a quarter of a percentage point to the 5.00%-5.25% range as forecast. In his statement following the announcement, Fed Chair Jerome Powell gave hints that the Fed could now be set to pause its current hiking cycle. Tim Gagie, Head of FX & PM Solutions Geneva, shares his thoughts on the outlook for the US dollar, and Ronny Kaufmann, CIO...