Many Happy Returns

Last week saw FTX implode in a storm of allegations that culminated in bankruptcy. The failure of the second-largest exchange and standard-bearer for the industry has left everyone asking: what next for crypto investors? The fallout is ongoing, with customers nursing heavy losses, investigators circling and the industry teetering. We delve into what caused the collapse and ask if it could bring do...

The pandemic delivered a massive simultaneous shock to the world economy. But which changes will outlast the pandemic, and should they cause us to rethink our investments? Alongside six million deaths and the largest peacetime fall in GDP since the Great Depression, Covid upended our way of life and put novel technologies centre stage. Pandemics throughout history have caused lasting economic chan...

It is often said that failure is a better teacher than success. This week we discuss how to live with and learn from your investing mistakes. Spotting errors is not as easy as it might sound, even with the benefit of hindsight. But there are strategies we can employ to stop them from derailing our investing goals. And in today’s Dumb Question of the Week: Why is Warren Buffett’s investment company...

2022 has been a horror show in markets. A nightmare on Wall Street. But every crisis presents opportunities for investors. This week we look at six different assets and consider if they may be about to rise from the grave. US small-cap stocks Chinese equity TIPS Commodities Ethereum Annuities And in today’s Dumb Question of the Week: What are zombie companies and will they ever die? --- Get in tou...

The gilt market was the last place anyone expected systemic risk to almost blow up the UK pensions industry, force the Bank of England into emergency bond purchases, cause the chancellor to be sacked, and make the government reverse its flagship economic policy. But are we now out of the woods? And what other markets are vulnerable to sharply rising bond yields and similar ‘doom-loop’ dynamics? An...

Interest rates are rising at breakneck speed and the impact on the value of assets is profound. We look at how stocks, bonds, gold and property respond to climbing rates. And consider whether any assets might actually benefit from rising rates? We dig into why interest rates are so influential for asset prices. So if you're a fan of cost of capital, discounted cashflows and duration effects, this...

Everyone loves a list: Buzzfeed, Santa, even God himself. But if you had to list the ten most important investing principles, what would you choose? These are our guidelines for how to sustainably grow your wealth while enjoying the journey and avoiding catastrophic loss. And in today’s Dumb Question of the Week: What is asset correlation and why does it matter? --- Get in touch 📧 mhr@pensioncraf...

On Friday, the UK chancellor unveiled his ‘mini-budget’ with the most significant tax cuts in 50 years. The market reaction was swift and brutal. Sterling crashed to a record low versus the dollar, and UK borrowing costs spiked. We ask why the market reacted so negatively and what it means for those of us who own UK assets. And in today’s Dumb Question of the Week: Why not invest everything in the...

Mary Childs (financial journalist and co-host of NPR's Planet Money) joins us to discuss her recent book The Bond King: How One Man Made a Market, Built an Empire, and Lost It All. This is the story of Bill Gross, the legendary investor and fund manager who revolutionised the bond market.  Before Bill Gross, bonds were the sleepy backbone of retirement accounts, paying the holders a steady st...

Many forecasters think that recession is imminent in the UK and Europe, with the US not far behind. But how deep will the downturn be? How long will it last? And will the economy emerge stronger on the other side? We discuss how this recession could compare to ones in the past and which assets might best weather the storm. And in today’s Dumb Question of the Week, we ask: Why does economic growth...

This episode is sponsored by NOA: Click here to get the free months of NOA premium. Some claim that artificial intelligence will trigger the fourth industrial revolution, upending traditional ways of living and doing business. This week we look at how an AI and big data arms race might change the world of investing. We discuss the implications for markets and returns and the effect AI could h...

This episode is sponsored by NOA: Click here to get a free month of NOA premium. 2021 was a record year for initial public offerings. More than 3,000 companies listed on global stock markets and raised over $600 billion in the process. Companies such as Coinbase, Roblox and Rivian each pulled in more than 10 billion dollars. Exciting times! But since going public, many companies have seen their st...

This episode is sponsored by NOA: Click here to get a free month of NOA premium. Few topics divide opinion more than investing in China. The incredible growth. The ethical dilemmas. The disappointing returns. This week we look at the big economic and political developments in China and whether now is the time to buy Chinese equity. What opportunities and risks confront investors? And how should we...

This episode is sponsored by NOA: Click here to get a free month of NOA premium. This year has seen remarkable shifts in currency markets, with the US Dollar reaching a 20 year high and parity with the Euro. We discuss the factors that drive exchange rates and the implications of a strong US dollar on trade, growth and our investments. And in today’s Dumb Question of the Week, we ask: Should you c...

The cost of living always attracts controversy, even before the current surge in prices. Many people believe that the true rate of inflation is consistently far higher than the official stats suggest. But is there any evidence to back up these claims? We discuss the nuances of how inflation is calculated and whether the changes made in the 1980s and 1990s have lowered official inflation numbers, a...

Kids are sometimes hard-work, often fun, and always expensive. But due to the magic of compounding, a small amount of money invested when they are young can grow into a substantial nest egg for later in life. We discuss how much to set aside, what to put in their portfolio, and how to keep them from blowing the cash as soon as they turn 18. And in today’s Dumb Question of the Week, we ask: Is gove...

Does it pay to be an optimist? Volatile financial markets and flaws in human psychology can cause many investors to be unduly pessimistic. Yet, remaining an optimist - and remaining invested - is the surest way to achieve the unrivalled long-term returns of the stock market. Today, we discuss why optimism about investing is not only desirable but rational. And how to spot biases and alarmist think...

VICE. UFO. COW. Welcome to the weird world of niche ETFs. Exchange Traded Funds are an easy way for investors to buy into a basket of stocks. The last few years has seen a proliferation of ETFs that offer investors different indices, themes, and strategies. We discuss which of these funds is worth our time, in what environments they might outperform, and how best to incorporate them in our portfol...

Natural gas is critical to the functioning of the European economy, used in everything from heating homes to powering industry. Russia is the continent's biggest gas supplier, and many analysts fear that President Putin might be about to turn off the gas taps. The impact of such a move could be profound, with the German Economy Minister warning of the potential for a “Lehman Brothers” moment. We l...

Leverage is borrowing money to invest. It can boost your returns in good times and amplify your losses when the market turns against you. This week we look at the different types of leveraged investments and how to employ them. We discuss the pros and cons of investing with margin loans, leveraged ETFs, and options. And the surprising evidence for using leverage to reduce retirement risk... And in...

Government bonds are considered the steady - perhaps even boring - investment class. But this year has seen the biggest bond crash in a generation, as inflation runs wild and central banks pretend not to panic. As if things weren’t interesting enough, the European Central Bank is concocting a new wheeze to keep bond spreads in check, the Bank of Japan is printing record-breaking amounts of money,...

This year the S&P 500 has fallen over 23%. With the benefit of hindsight, what were the clues that we had reached the top at the start of 2022? And what could indicate the market has now reached a bottom and is about to resume its upward drift? Accepted wisdom says that what matters is “time in the market, not timing the market.” Is this always true? And how does it affect how we invest? And i...

The UK stock market has lagged global indices over the past decade and struggled to attract new companies. We look at the reasons for the underperformance and the prospects for the future. We discuss the sector composition of the UK market, with its crucial underweight in technology companies, as well as whether the dividend investing culture at many UK equity funds holds back business investment...

For decades, oil has held a critical and unique place in the global economy. Many commodities are claimed to be “the new oil” for their importance in the modern world. But are these claims mere soundbites or do they indicate the emergence of new strategic commodities? We discuss the prospects for claims ranging from tech innovations like data and artificial intelligence to natural resources like c...

There are many different risks we have to navigate as investors, from the volatility of markets to collapsing companies to our own behaviour. How we choose to respond to these risks is ultimately what will determine our success in building and preserving our wealth. This week we dig into the different types of investment risk, how best to measure and quantify them, and what strategies we can emplo...