Many Happy Returns

Natural gas is critical to the functioning of the European economy, used in everything from heating homes to powering industry. Russia is the continent's biggest gas supplier, and many analysts fear that President Putin might be about to turn off the gas taps. The impact of such a move could be profound, with the German Economy Minister warning of the potential for a “Lehman Brothers” moment. We l...

Leverage is borrowing money to invest. It can boost your returns in good times and amplify your losses when the market turns against you. This week we look at the different types of leveraged investments and how to employ them. We discuss the pros and cons of investing with margin loans, leveraged ETFs, and options. And the surprising evidence for using leverage to reduce retirement risk... And in...

Government bonds are considered the steady - perhaps even boring - investment class. But this year has seen the biggest bond crash in a generation, as inflation runs wild and central banks pretend not to panic. As if things weren’t interesting enough, the European Central Bank is concocting a new wheeze to keep bond spreads in check, the Bank of Japan is printing record-breaking amounts of money,...

This year the S&P 500 has fallen over 23%. With the benefit of hindsight, what were the clues that we had reached the top at the start of 2022? And what could indicate the market has now reached a bottom and is about to resume its upward drift? Accepted wisdom says that what matters is “time in the market, not timing the market.” Is this always true? And how does it affect how we invest? And i...

The UK stock market has lagged global indices over the past decade and struggled to attract new companies. We look at the reasons for the underperformance and the prospects for the future. We discuss the sector composition of the UK market, with its crucial underweight in technology companies, as well as whether the dividend investing culture at many UK equity funds holds back business investment...

For decades, oil has held a critical and unique place in the global economy. Many commodities are claimed to be “the new oil” for their importance in the modern world. But are these claims mere soundbites or do they indicate the emergence of new strategic commodities? We discuss the prospects for claims ranging from tech innovations like data and artificial intelligence to natural resources like c...

There are many different risks we have to navigate as investors, from the volatility of markets to collapsing companies to our own behaviour. How we choose to respond to these risks is ultimately what will determine our success in building and preserving our wealth. This week we dig into the different types of investment risk, how best to measure and quantify them, and what strategies we can emplo...

The S&P 500 has fallen to the brink of a bear market, with companies severely punished for missing their earnings forecasts. The price-to-earnings multiple has declined and market prospects look uncertain. The question everyone is asking is ‘what comes next?' We look into whether the S&P 500 is now at fair value? What events could trigger a stock market crash? And whether bonds will succes...

Stablecoins are a core part of the financial plumbing when it comes to cryptocurrency and digital assets. They promise that if you put a dollar in, you will always be able to get a dollar out. But last week saw Terra, one of the largest stablecoins, lose its peg to the dollar and collapse. Investors are estimated to have lost over $40 billion in value. Ouch. We dig into what happened, what might b...

Myth-busting popular sayings, cliches and folk wisdom about the stock market and investing. We discuss "sell in May and go away", dividend investing, and "buy the dip." Ramin also let's loose on Technical Analysis and the dependability of vomiting camels. In the Dumb Question of the Week, we ask: Are credit ratings useless? --- Get in touch 📧 mhr@pensioncraft.com 🎧 many-happy-returns.captivate.f...

The Berkshire Hathaway annual meeting is often referred to as the Woodstock of Capitalism, where legendary investors Warren Buffett and Charlie Munger opine on the state of markets and investing. The 2022 meeting took place this weekend, with as many interesting nuggets of wisdom and controversy as ever. We discuss Berkshire ramping up their stock purchases and running down their cash pile, the co...

Many different assets are touted as potential inflation hedges but which ones actually work? People often make the case for inflation-linked bonds, gold, commodities... but how do we know how each asset class will respond in a period of high inflation? When does it make sense for us to hedge? What risks are involved and what impact does it have on our long-term investment returns? In today's Dumb...

Emerging Markets promised investors better returns and broader diversification. But growth has stalled in recent years, with heightened volatility and uncertainty. This week we look at what risks and opportunities are involved with investing in Emerging Markets and what role they should play in our portfolio. We discuss the unique position of China, the impact of tighter Fed monetary policy on dev...

House prices in the UK are up by 10% year on year, with similar rises in much of the western world. What has caused this runaway growth in prices? And what could cause it to reverse? We look to interest rates, supply constraints, government policy and wage growth for the answer. Could the market be in for a fall or is it poised just to keep on rising? In the Dumb Question of the Week, we ask: Why...

How much money do you need to invest to live the life you want? How much can you safely withdraw from a portfolio each year? And how do you ensure you don't run out of money in retirement? What really makes us happy? What role does money play in our happiness and how do we approach investing for our future? And in today's Dumb Question of the Week, we ask: Does passive investing distort markets? -...

Meme stocks are on the rise again, with GameStop and AMC leading the charge again over the past week. We look back at the crazy month of January 2021 to understand what caused meme stocks to gain over 2,000%, before falling back just as sharply. How did the short squeeze on hedge funds work? What effect did Wall Street Bets and social media have? And what does the future hold for these stocks? In...

Which macroeconomic indicators should we look at to understand where markets are heading? How important are labour market indicators such as nonfarm payrolls, initial jobless claims and the unemployment rate? And what impact do housing and credit market indicators - such as the senior loan officers survey - have on markets? How do these different data points influence federal reserve policy and th...

Cognitive biases can impair investment decisions and cause us to make costly mistakes. We discuss the different biases, how to mitigate their impact, and even how to profit from bias in the market. We discuss loss aversion, the endowment effect, anchoring bias, the bandwagon effect, survivorship bias, and confirmation bias. In the Dumb Question of the Week, we ask: When should you cut your losses...

How will sanctions on Russia affect markets? Western governments have imposed unprecedented economic sanctions on Russia for its invasion of Ukraine. Central bank reserves have been frozen. Banks have been cut out of the SWIFT payment network. And Russian stocks have been shorn from equity indices. We look at what impact these moves will have on markets and how investors might respond. Is inflatio...

Should you add satellite investments to your core investment portfolio? To prevent meddling with the core investment portfolio, many investors set aside a small amount of money to invest in risky satellite investments. Ramin talks us through some of the assets he has on his 'Market Crash Shopping List' and when he might consider adding them to his portfolio. We look at actively managed investment...

A popular approach to investing is to construct a core portfolio of long-term investments. But what investments should go into this core? We consider the case for stocks, bonds, cash and gold, and how they complement each other. We also discuss what to look for in an index fund, when to rebalance and what risks are involved in long-term investing. In the Dumb Question of the Week, we ask: Who actu...

Can ESG funds save the planet while delivering strong investment returns? ESG funds claim to be able to keep the environment - and your conscience - clean. And all while delivering better returns than the broad market. We dig into how ESG indexes are constructed, what returns we can expect, and whether the environmental claims actually stack up. We also consider alternative investments which might...

Big Tech companies have had a wild earnings season. Meta - the parent company of Facebook - suffered the largest-ever one-day loss in market value for a US company. The very next day, Amazon notched the largest-ever one-day gain in history. What is going on to cause such dramatic price moves? And what does the future hold for companies such as Apple, Amazon, Google, Facebook, Tesla and Microsoft?...

Ramin and Michael look at whether investing in factors such as value, momentum or quality can boost returns. Which stocks do these funds buy? What are the risks? And how might we incorporate them in our portfolios? And in the Dumb Question of the Week, we ask: Do CEO's deserve their high pay and does it lead to better performance? --- Get in touch 📧 mhr@pensioncraft.com 🎧 many-happy-returns.capt...

Are we in an asset bubble? Stocks, property and many other investments look expensive at the moment. Ramin guides us through different ways of looking at valuations to see just how expensive. If we are in a bubble, what could cause it to pop? And how can we protect ourselves as investors? And in today's Dumb Question of the Week, we ask: Is China communist or capitalist? --- Get in touch 📧 mhr@pe...