Macro Minutes

The Canadian economy is at stall speed and the BoC is in a holding pattern. There has been no GDP growth and anemic employment gains over the last year – amid the dual forces of a population and trade shock. The consumer has actually been quite resilient in the face of these shocks. While the starting point should keep the BoC on hold for the rest of the year, better prospects for growth are ahead...

In this month's Emerging Markets edition, Luis Estrada is joined by Abbas Keshvani and Dasha Parkhomenko to analyze recent developments across emerging markets. The discussion covers the changing direction of the US dollar, preferred trades for the current environment, and key risks to their outlook. Participants: Abbas Keshvani (Desk Strategy), Asia Macro Strategist Daria Parkhomenko (Desk Strate...

In this special edition of Macro Minutes, Peter Schaffrik is joined by Blake Gwinn to dissect the first FOMC meeting under the new chairman Warsh. Blake shares his views on the task forces set up, the market reaction to the change in the SEP projections and explains why he still does not expect rate hikes this year. Participants: Peter Schaffrik (Desk Strategy), Head of UK/European Rates & Eco...

Straight after the ECB’s first rate increase in quite a few years, Cathal Kennedy and Peter Schaffrik discuss the ECB’s rate hike, the set of new forecast and the likely path going forward. Peter and Cathal also discuss next week’s BoE meeting and compare and contrast the two central banks’ approach to monetary policy at present. Participants: Peter Schaffrik (Desk Strategy), Head of UK/European R...

Recorded at the Global Energy, Power, and Infrastructure Conference in New York, this special edition brings a real-time read on where markets stand. Lori Calvasina, Head of U.S. Equity Strategy, joined Amy Wu Silverman and Callie Simpkins for an on-the-ground conversation about the US equity outlook and key macro themes. They break down why inflation remains the risk to watch and what it means fo...

There are good reasons to wait for confirmation of a deal before loading up on risk. But while we wait, we recommend being oil-neutral via RV strategies between energy importers. In a post-war world, we see opportunities to turn bullish on currencies that have been dragged by the war. We also discuss potential the impact of politics in Latam and EMEA FX, China fiscal stimulus, KRW underperformance...

Sterling markets have had a rough ride over the last few weeks. In part this is against the backdrop of the oil price shock, but it is also due to the domestic political uncertainty that has once again come to the fore. In this episode, Peter Schaffrik and Cathal Kennedy unpick the difficult situation, provide a view on the outcome of the recent turmoil along with an outlook on what the political...

Equity markets keep hitting all-time highs. Rates markets are telling a more cautious story. So which one has it right? In this episode, we examine the complacency narrative through both an equity and rates lens, unpacking whether risk assets are fully pricing the range of Iran conflict outcomes or looking past risks that haven't fully materialized yet. We also dig into what a Warsh-led Fed means...

Uncertainty on the path of the Iran conflict remains. The second and third order effects for the global economy have yet to be seen, but FX markets are taking an optimistic view on the outcome of the conflict. In this episode, we look at how emerging markets have been responding over the past two months, and what we are paying attention to for opportunities across Latin America, Asia, and EMEA. Pa...

Market pricing for central bank policy rates has been on wild ride. Front-end yield spiked to extreme levels during the initial phase of the oil shock. They are lower now but in some countries painting a very different picture than before the war started. Policy responses will not be uniform across countries but some central banks might be inclined to move pre-emptively while others could wait a l...

In this European episode of Macro Minutes, Peter is joined by Marc Sanchez who is RBC’s Head of European Financials Sector Strategy and recently wrote a detailed note about the private credit market and the potential pitfalls. Marc and Peter recap why markets have recently become wary of private credit, explore where the problems might lie and what potential contagion channels into the public mark...

In this episode, we examine how the Middle East conflict transmits economic shocks beyond energy markets, focusing on supply chain disruptions in Asia-Pacific and global inflationary pressures. Join us when we explore why commodity exporters like Australia are feeling the pinch, how central banks will respond to stagflation, and why US equities have remained resilient , though caution is warranted...

The episode examines the Iran conflict through an emerging markets lens, analyzing recent developments and exploring two primary scenarios that could unfold in the coming weeks. The first scenario envisions rapid de-escalation that would allow oil prices to retreat toward $80 per barrel, providing relief to EM economies and supporting risk assets. The second scenario contemplates further escalatio...

In this European edition of Macro Minutes, we discuss the rise in energy prices in the wake of the Middle East conflict brings back painful memories of the 2022 energy shock for Europe. We dissect what is similar and what is different, quantify some impacts on inflation and growth estimates, and map a path forward for the ECB and BoE. Peter Schaffrik (Desk Strategy), Head of UK/European Rates &amp...

Concerns over the spending and investment circularity of the AI Ecosystem between chip makers, hyperscalers and data centers has shifted to a New Circularity, driving credit spreads wider. The New Circularity was initiated by new AI apps hitting software equity valuations and credit spreads, which in turn is feeding into concerns over vehicles exposed to that widening, namely the Broadly Syndicate...

The US Tariff framework is changing. China is preparing for its National People’s Congress. Latin America is entering a period of political volatility. We give our take on the current EM environment. Participants: Richard Cochinos (Desk Strategy), FX Strategist Abbas Keshvani (Desk Strategy), Asia Macro Strategist Daria Parkhomenko (Desk Strategy), FX Strategist Luis Estrada (Desk Strategy), LATAM...

Over the past 6-12 months Treasury yields are rangebound, gold surged, but the USD has weakened. Despite the de-dollarization narrative, investors have continued to accumulate USD denominated assets, but with a cautious bias (i.e. hedging). To unpack these complexities you will hear insights from Blake Gwinn (Head of US Rates Strategy), Richard Cochinos (FX Strategy), and Chris Louney (Natural Gas...

In the first episode of our new monthly ‘European Edition’ we talk about political instability in the UK and its impact on markets. Despite the uncertainties, we still see value in the short end of the UK Gilt curve, also versus the EUR market. We also outline that we see the ECB on hold for the rest of the year despite inflation being below the 2% target and why we think the EUR yield curve steep...

There seems to be a confluence of factors that have conspired to be the perfect storm for gold. Prices gains have been parabolic, the recent correction severe, but dip buyers arrived in force to support the market. Is there still a golden opportunity in the shiny metal? Jason Daw (Desk Strategy), Head of North America Rates Strategy Christopher Louney (Research), Gold & Natural Gas Strategist...

We are introducing our new EM Pulse publication, highlighting our views across Asia, EMEA, and LatAm in 2026. This episode features discussions from our positive view on CNY and China’s outlook to why we think the South African rand’s positive momentum can continue and the role of FX carry in the outperformance of LatAm FX this year. Participants: Richard Cochinos (Desk Strategy), FX Strategist Ab...

Geopolitical tensions are on the rise again and have lately filtered into markets more clearly. Global bond yields started rising again, the yield curve steepened from both ends and the USD is on the back foot again. Meanwhile, the JGB market is under pressure and JPY worries are mounting. Participants: Peter Schaffrik (Desk Strategy), Head of UK/European Rates & Economics Blake Gwinn (Desk St...

As central banks chart divergent paths into 2026, regional opportunities and risks emerge across markets. Join our rates experts from the US, Canada, Europe, and APAC on a world tour breaking down what policy divergence means for bond yields, inflation risks, relative market performance, and how to navigate the year ahead.   Participants:  Jason Daw (Desk Strategy), Head of North America...

RBC BlueBay CEO Eric Gerth discusses the asset manager's $700B global growth, industry consolidation drivers, and the strategic importance of scale, culture, and AI investment in shaping the future of financial services.

With the Fed signaling meaningful changes to their policy stance, what will be the cascading effects across US rates, equities, and global FX markets in what promises to be a pivotal period for investors? In this episode, we discuss the interconnected challenges of monetary policy pivots, earnings expectations heading into 2026, and the looming Supreme Court decision on US tariffs that could resha...

The US government shutdown is the latest in a long list of developments in 2025 that has injected heightened uncertainty into macro and markets. There are some known unknowns about how this will impact the economic data but there are also lots of unknown unknowns. In this episode, we will shed light on what it means for the economy, Fed, and bond market. Participants: Jason Daw (Desk Strategy), He...