Macro Minutes

We delve in the key macro themes driving monetary policy decisions and discuss when/if policy easing cycles will re-start, how fast they could proceed, and how low terminal rates might go. As the outlook for global central bank policies continues to evolve, particularly the Fed, it could have far-reaching implications for global asset markets. Participants: Jason Daw (Desk Strategy): Head of North...

In this episode, we explore how central banks in Australia, the UK, and the US are responding to evolving inflation dynamics and labor market shifts. From the Bank of England's hawkish cuts to the Reserve Bank of Australia's cautious easing, and the Federal Reserve's balancing act amid market pressures, we delve into the similarities, differences, and uncertainties shaping monetary policy decision...

In this episode, fiscal loosening has been a feature across many geographies and is getting an increasing amount of attention from financial markets. In this episode, we look at the similarities and differences in fiscal approaches, and how markets are reacting in the US, Euro-area, UK and Canada. Participants: Simon Deeley (Desk Strategy), Canada Rates Strategist Blake Gwinn (Desk Strat...

In this episode, Elsa, Peter, and Blake discuss the weakening of the USD, the outlook for the Fed and UST markets as well as the cross implications of both developments on the ECB and European rates. Participants: Elsa Lignos (Desk Strategy), Head of FX Strategy Blake Gwinn (Desk Strategy), Head of US Rates Strategy Peter Schaffrik (Desk Strategy), Head of UK/European Rates & Economics * Resea...

US policy uncertainty is sky high. Global investors own a lot of US assets, mostly unhedged currency exposure, and the natural implication is that the collision of large exposures and elevated uncertainty could have a large impact on global capital flows, asset markets, and currency hedging activity. Participants: Jason Daw (Desk Strategy), Head of North America Rates Strategy Elsa Lignos (Desk St...

Strategies promising to remove human emotion from investing were once niche. Now a growing number of institutions are finding them valuable. Where will QIS go next? Participants: Janet Wilkinson (Desk Strategy), Head of Global Markets Flow Sales, EMEA Solenn Le Floch (Desk Strategy), Managing Director, Global Markets Solutions Akilesh Eswaran (Desk Strategy), Global Head of QIS and EMEA Head of Eq...

Both the Bank of England (BoE) and Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) delivered 25bps rate cuts at their latest meetings but with very differing messages. Whereas the RBA delivered a ‘very dovish’ cut the BoE was much more cautious and in this episode we unpack the reasons for that differing approach and what it means for each going forward. Participants: Cathal Kennedy (Desk Strategy), Senior UK Eco...

The Canadian federal election produced the third straight Liberal minority government. The pre-election campaign incorporated sizable new fiscal measures. In this episode we unpack what it means for the economy, Bank of Canada policy, issuance, and the rates market. Participants: Jason Daw (Desk Strategy), Head of North America Rates Strategy Simon Deeley (Desk Strategy), Canada Rates Strategist *...

Today we break down the trade war, the dollar, equities, rates, earnings season, and what it all means for markets—plus a quick dive into Treasury refunding. Participants: Lori Calvasina (Research), Head of U.S. Equity Strategy Blake Gwinn (Desk Strategy), Head of US Rates Strategy Elsa Lignos (Desk Strategy), Head of FX Strategy * Research Analyst opinions are their published views, independ...

It is a unique time for economies and financial markets - political decisions are increasingly driving economic outcomes and asset markets rather than the other way around. Today's episode unpacks what it means for US & Canada and the implications for equity markets. Participants: Jason Daw (Desk Strategy), Head of North America Rates Strategy Blake Gwinn (Desk Strategy), Head of US Rates Stra...

Today is 11-April-2025 and my name is Peter Schaffrik. We have labelled this edition ‘Chaos Theory’ and I trust most listeners do not need and explanation as to what inspired us. Market swings have been very large on the back of the back and forth in the tariffs culminating in a 90 day pause being announced this week. Helping us to bring some order into the chaos, I am joined by Blake Gwinn, RBC’s...

A twin resurgence is reshaping European financial markets. Bank equities and AT1 bonds are both surging—can the momentum last? Participants: Janet Wilkinson (Desk Strategy), Head of Global Markets Flow Sales, EMEA Anke Reingen (Desk Strategy), Global Co-Head of Financials Research Marc Sanchez Roger (Desk Strategy), Head of European Financials Credit Sector * Research Analyst opinions ar...

Explore how Trump's policies are reshaping global defense. Experts from RBC Capital Markets analyze the economic and strategic shifts in UK, European, and US defense spending. Participants: Janet Wilkinson  (Desk Strategy), Head of Global Markets Flow Sales, EMEA Peter Schaffrik (Desk Strategy), Chief European Macro Strategist Ken Herbert (Research), Senior Aerospace and Defense Analyst *&nbs...

The butterfly effect is where a change in a complex system can have large effects elsewhere. Indeed, US trade policies are having significant intended and unintended consequences for various countries that is impacting fiscal policy and politics and potentially and monetary policy and the bond market. Participants: Jason Daw (Desk Strategy), Head of North America Rates Strategy Peter Schaffrik &nb...

The signals are mixed, but the outlook for the U.K economy is uncertain at best, while geopolitical risks add further potential volatility. So why is the U.K. banking sector looking forward to another strong year? Participants: Janet Wilkinson Head of Global Markets Flow Sales EMEA Kofi Oteng Head of Flow Rate Sales EMEA Benjamin Toms Director European Banks Equity Research * Research Analyst...

The degree to which lingering tariff uncertainty impacts both market and general economic outcomes remains unclear. Economies are evolving regardless, with Europe and Canada seeing some improvement, while US exceptionalism is perhaps fading. Issuance and regulatory developments have brought swap spreads - the difference between swap rates and bond yields of the same term - back into focus. Persist...

This weekend and the start of the trading week were heavily impacted by President Trump announcing tariffs on Canada, Mexico and China. They were ultimately postponed for Mexico and Canada, but he has the EU in his sights as well This edition we discuss central banks in the context of tariffs, but also what the non-tariff fundamentals are suggesting for policy going forward. The Fed paused its cut...

The biggest known unknown for economies and financial markets is what will happen with tariffs – are they just being threatened as a bargaining chip for transactional purposes, if they come to fruition what will their breadth, size, and duration be, and will trading partners retaliate. Unfortunately for investors, the matrix of possibilities is endless, and each has a low probability chance. In th...

Will Trump’s bite match his bark on tariffs? If it does, the economic damage could be severe but central bank responses are not clear cut in the short term. While Trump policy is the primary risk factor, there are many other question marks – Is the Fed finished the easing cycle? What happens with Canada politics? Will the ongoing rout in global bond markets continue? Is the USD destined to remain...

The BoC ended the year with another large rate cut but they are expected to SLOW the pace in 2025, while the Fed has already SLOWed down after an outsized move in September and seems locked in to deliver a regular size move tomorrow. The ECB should take it SLOW and the market is increasingly pricing a SLOW pace for the BoE. Central banks should proceed at a variable and uneven pace reflecting diff...

We are approaching final central bank decisions of 2024 with uncertainty about ultimate outcomes, but clear differences across jurisdictions on where economies are headed. In Canada, soft growth data has solidified our expectation for a second consecutive 50bp cut despite firmer inflation data last month, while US economic exceptionalism has markets pricing a material possibility of a skip on the...

For macro and bond investors, 2024 has been challenging. Despite central banks cutting rates, bond yields have remained high, and country-specific macroeconomic factors have heavily influenced allocation strategies. Looking ahead to 2025, returns in global fixed income will largely depend on the trajectory of the U.S. economy and the extent of the Federal Reserve's easing measures. Macro nuances a...

The ECB delivered another cut today and there is more to come, the BoC is primed to start cutting in 50bp increments and do a lot over the cycle, the Fed should cut further but only a little bit, and China has recently delivered a lot of stimulus. The RBNZ has recently cut 50bp and could follow up with materially more. But the outlier is the RBA who is sitting patiently and doesn’t appear ready to...

The Fed delivered a super-sized rate cut to the start of the cycle last week. More likely they go back to smaller 25bp moves if labour data remains resilient. But another large move is not out of the realm of possibility. We think the BoC is on course for 5 straight 25’s but they could front-load with a 50bp move in October or December if growth data shows a large undershoot vs potential. The BoE...

With the Fed and ECB set to follow the BoC’s lead with 25bp cuts of their own, a number of the major central banks are now back in sync. So far, these central banks look to be proceeding gradually along their respective cutting paths, but the possibility of larger cuts still loom should economic conditions start to deteriorate. Meanwhile, others are proving even more cautious, with the next cut fr...