Inside Markets

The S&P 500 (SPX) has extended to the upper end of technical pattern resistance near 4200 with thin leadership in mega cap Tech and Comm Services. Would you like to learn more about Jackson Square Capital or receive Inside Markets as a daily email? Join the Jackson Square Capital community by sending an email to hello@jacksonsquarecap.com.

Ongoing optimism around US debt ceiling negotiations remain the primary driver behind the recent backup in bond yields and relative strength in the dollar. Would you like to learn more about Jackson Square Capital or receive Inside Markets as a daily email? Join the Jackson Square Capital community by sending an email to hello@jacksonsquarecap.com.

Coming out of yesterday's meeting both Biden and McConnell vowed that the US will not default. Would you like to learn more about Jackson Square Capital or receive Inside Markets as a daily email? Join the Jackson Square Capital community by sending an email to hello@jacksonsquarecap.com.

We continue to think that a full Fed pivot is required in order to drive the S&P 500 (SPX) through ~4200. Unfortunately, getting the Fed to pivot likely requires the onset of recession or major crisis in financial markets. Would you like to learn more about Jackson Square Capital or receive Inside Markets as a daily email? Join the Jackson Square Capital community by sending an email to hello@...

Friday's stronger than expected payroll gain, lower unemployment rate, and higher wages are taking bond yields higher in the near-term. Would you like to learn more about Jackson Square Capital or receive Inside Markets as a daily email? Join the Jackson Square Capital community by sending an email to hello@jacksonsquarecap.com.

The debt ceiling issue is different than budget debates that sometimes cause a government shutdown. Would you like to learn more about Jackson Square Capital or receive Inside Markets as a daily email? Join the Jackson Square Capital community by sending an email to hello@jacksonsquarecap.com.

This morning, the 5/10-year yield curve flipped into positive territory for the first time in 9 months.  A positively sloped 5/10 yield curve is our early signal of an imminent Fed pivot and catalyst to add equity exposure.  Unfortunately, intraday levels don’t count and the curve now needs to sustain and confirm a positive slope by moving above +9bp.   Would you like to learn more about Jackson S...

History shows that monetary tightening works with a lag and sustained equity rallies require the Fed to first end its hiking cycle. Would you like to learn more about Jackson Square Capital or receive Inside Markets as a daily email? Join the Jackson Square Capital community by sending an email to hello@jacksonsquarecap.com.

The probability for a technical US debt default remains below 10%, but the likelihood for a credit rating downgrade may be fairly high. Would you like to learn more about Jackson Square Capital or receive Inside Markets as a daily email? Join the Jackson Square Capital community by sending an email to hello@jacksonsquarecap.com.

Bullish developments begin to show with improvements in Q1 earnings. Would you like to learn more about Jackson Square Capital or receive Inside Markets as a daily email? Join the Jackson Square Capital community by sending an email to hello@jacksonsquarecap.com.

The ongoing preference for mega-cap stocks is a defensive dynamic that often occurs late in a cycle. Apple and Microsoft are no longer stocks in an index, they're a destination. Would you like to learn more about Jackson Square Capital or receive Inside Markets as a daily email? Join the Jackson Square Capital community by sending an email to hello@jacksonsquarecap.com.

Our 10-year yield objective of 3.2% looks achievable in the near term as the market awaits an updated debt ceiling ex-date from the Treasury. Would you like to learn more about Jackson Square Capital or receive Inside Markets as a daily email? Join the Jackson Square Capital community by sending an email to hello@jacksonsquarecap.com.

The S&P 500 is in technical short-term overbought territory and looks fundamentally overbought relative to current terminal rate expectations. Would you like to learn more about Jackson Square Capital or receive Inside Markets as a daily email? Join the Jackson Square Capital community by sending an email to hello@jacksonsquarecap.com.

Takeaways from the earliest Q1 reports reveal strength in high-income consumer spending and travel demand, but softening demand among middle-income consumers. Would you like to learn more about Jackson Square Capital or receive Inside Markets as a daily email? Join the Jackson Square Capital community by sending an email to hello@jacksonsquarecap.com.

Signs of easing banking sector stress have resulted in a return of the soft-landing narrative, higher bond yields and more hawkish Fed rhetoric. Would you like to learn more about Jackson Square Capital or receive Inside Markets as a daily email? Join the Jackson Square Capital community by sending an email to hello@jacksonsquarecap.com.

A crowded bearish outlook means the near-term pain trade is still skewed to the upside. Would you like to learn more about Jackson Square Capital or receive Inside Markets as a daily email? Join the Jackson Square Capital community by sending an email to hello@jacksonsquarecap.com.

The recent backup in bond yields looks like normal consolidation in a developing bullish trend. Would you like to learn more about Jackson Square Capital or receive Inside Markets as a daily email? Join the Jackson Square Capital community by sending an email to hello@jacksonsquarecap.com.

Strong technical resistance in the mid-4100s continues to cap the S&P 500 until there's a change in macro-fundamentals. Would you like to learn more about Jackson Square Capital or receive Inside Markets as a daily email? Join the Jackson Square Capital community by sending an email to hello@jacksonsquarecap.com.

Current economic conditions suggest that any near-term recession would be relatively mild. Would you like to learn more about Jackson Square Capital or receive Inside Markets as a daily email? Join the Jackson Square Capital community by sending an email to hello@jacksonsquarecap.com.

Fed officials continue to endorse a hike and hold policy into year-end, while markets remain priced for nearly 50bp of rate cuts. Would you like to learn more about Jackson Square Capital or receive Inside Markets as a daily email? Join the Jackson Square Capital community by sending an email to hello@jacksonsquarecap.com.

It’s a relatively quiet session as market participants wait for directional clues in tomorrow’s CPI report and Fed meeting minutes. Bond markets remain priced for a 25bp May rate hike and ~60bp of rate cuts through January ’24. Would you like to learn more about Jackson Square Capital or receive Inside Markets as a daily email? Join the Jackson Square Capital community by sending an email to hello...

Wednesday's CPI print should provide more clarity for the Fed's expected near-term policy path. Would you like to learn more about Jackson Square Capital or receive Inside Markets as a daily email? Join the Jackson Square Capital community by sending an email to hello@jacksonsquarecap.com.

An expected collapse in bank credit creation should accelerate the disinflationary cycle. Would you like to learn more about Jackson Square Capital or receive Inside Markets as a daily email? Join the Jackson Square Capital community by sending an email to hello@jacksonsquarecap.com.

Bond prices and equity prices have been positively correlated for the last 14 months. Over the long run, these two asset classes have a negative correlation with higher bond prices and lower yields reflecting increased risk of slowdown in economic growth. Would you like to learn more about Jackson Square Capital or receive Inside Markets as a daily email? Join the Jackson Square Capital community...

The S&P 500 (SPX) has moved into a strong technical resistance range between 4050-4200 with a challenging fundamental backdrop. Breaking above ~4200 likely requires a change in macro fundamentals, specifically a Fed pivot.  Would you like to learn more about Jackson Square Capital or receive Inside Markets as a daily email? Join the Jackson Square Capital community by sending an email to hello...