Inside Markets

Last week’s AAII survey continues to signal elevated bearish sentiment, while internal client surveys at sell-side firms reach bearish extremes. Would you like to learn more about Jackson Square Capital or receive Inside Markets as a daily email? Join the Jackson Square Capital community by sending an email to hello@jacksonsquarecap.com.

Technical signs of a peak in nominal yields occurred two weeks prior to Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank headlines. Would you like to learn more about Jackson Square Capital or receive Inside Markets as a daily email? Join the Jackson Square Capital community by sending an email to hello@jacksonsquarecap.com.

Calls for increased bank regulations fit the disinflation and recession narrative, driving the rotation into growth equity sectors. Would you like to learn more about Jackson Square Capital or receive Inside Markets as a daily email? Join the Jackson Square Capital community by sending an email to hello@jacksonsquarecap.com.

The S&P 500 tries to break above the 3950-4000 resistance as bank contagion appears temporarily contained and implied volatility fades. Would you like to learn more about Jackson Square Capital or receive Inside Markets as a daily email? Join the Jackson Square Capital community by sending an email to hello@jacksonsquarecap.com.

FCNA’s acquisition of SIVB assets and deposits has helped near-term risk sentiment, but markets are still looking for additional policy measures from the Fed, FDIC and Treasury. Would you like to learn more about Jackson Square Capital or receive Inside Markets as a daily email? Join the Jackson Square Capital community by sending an email to hello@jacksonsquarecap.com.

Recent equity market resilience has been driven by lower bond yields and rotation into growth sectors. Would you like to learn more about Jackson Square Capital or receive Inside Markets as a daily email? Join the Jackson Square Capital community by sending an email to hello@jacksonsquarecap.com.

Reduced bank credit creation will slow the economy and slow inflation with the lagged effects of official government statistics causing the Fed to remain behind the curve. Would you like to learn more about Jackson Square Capital or receive Inside Markets as a daily email? Join the Jackson Square Capital community by sending an email to hello@jacksonsquarecap.com.

The S&P 500 remains relatively resilient as investors look through near-term economic pain on expectations for an eventual Fed pivot. Would you like to learn more about Jackson Square Capital or receive Inside Markets as a daily email? Join the Jackson Square Capital community by sending an email to hello@jacksonsquarecap.com

In addition to the Fed decision, markets will pay close attention to Powell’s press conference for: 1) near-term direction on efforts to contain financial contagion; 2) associated impact on financial conditions from expected tightening of bank lending standards. Would you like to learn more about Jackson Square Capital or receive Inside Markets as a daily email? Join the Jackson Square Capital com...

The debate over whether the Fed hikes by 25bp or decides to pause at tomorrow’s meeting seems less important when you consider that an estimated $440B of its BTFP facility has already been utilized. Would you like to learn more about Jackson Square Capital or receive Inside Markets as a daily email? Join the Jackson Square Capital community by sending an email to hello@jacksonsquarecap.com.

A de facto end of the tightening cycle has driven bond yields and kicked off equity rotation into growth sectors and Tech in particular. Would you like to learn more about Jackson Square Capital or receive Inside Markets as a daily email? Join the Jackson Square Capital community by sending an email to hello@jacksonsquarecap.com.

Rotation into growth from value sectors began late last week after 10-year real yields reversed from strong technical resistance at +170bp. Would you like to learn more about Jackson Square Capital or receive Inside Markets as a daily email? Join the Jackson Square Capital community by sending an email to hello@jacksonsquarecap.com.

Bond market volatility has spilled into equity markets and other cross markets amid low liquidity conditions. Would you like to learn more about Jackson Square Capital or receive Inside Markets as a daily email? Join the Jackson Square Capital community by sending an email to hello@jacksonsquarecap.com.

The Fed backstop on deposits at SIVB and SBNY reduces the likelihood of more regional bank failures, but the pressure on bank's underlying business model remains acute. Would you like to learn more about Jackson Square Capital or receive Inside Markets as a daily email? Join the Jackson Square Capital community by sending an email to hello@jacksonsquarecap.com.

The Fed's decision to provide liquidity has markets speculating the central bank may elect to leave rates unchanged when it meets again next week. Would you like to learn more about Jackson Square Capital or receive Inside Markets as a daily email? Join the Jackson Square Capital community by sending an email to hello@jacksonsquarecap.com.

The recency of the financial crisis and the systemic issues that followed generates questions about it reoccurring today. Would you like to learn more about Jackson Square Capital or receive Inside Markets as a daily email? Join the Jackson Square Capital community by sending an email to hello@jacksonsquarecap.com.

A macro backdrop that includes a potential recession has the Fed issuing stricter stress test rules, which means higher loan loss provisions, fewer loans, and lower earnings.  Would you like to learn more about Jackson Square Capital or receive Inside Markets as a daily email? Join the Jackson Square Capital community by sending an email to hello@jacksonsquarecap.com.

Macro fundamentals remain challenging for equity markets after a year-long yield curve inversion and policy rate that’s 2x higher than neutral. Would you like to learn more about Jackson Square Capital or receive Inside Markets as a daily email? Join the Jackson Square Capital community by sending an email to hello@jacksonsquarecap.com.

Longer-dated bond yields have limited room to lift from current levels given hawkish rate expectations and the potential for a more benign February Jobs Report this Friday. Would you like to learn more about Jackson Square Capital or receive Inside Markets as a daily email? Join the Jackson Square Capital community by sending an email to hello@jacksonsquarecap.com.

Market internals over the last three sessions suggest the peak inflation narrative has returned ahead of Friday's Jobs Report and next Tuesday's CPI print. Would you like to learn more about Jackson Square Capital or receive Inside Markets as a daily email? Join the Jackson Square Capital community by sending an email to hello@jacksonsquarecap.com.

The S&P 500 staged a rebound from short-term oversold levels just above its 200-day moving average. Would you like to learn more about Jackson Square Capital or receive Inside Markets as a daily email? Join the Jackson Square Capital community by sending an email to hello@jacksonsquarecap.com.

If higher rates are going to create a problem for the economy and equity markets, it would first show up in credit markets. Would you like to learn more about Jackson Square Capital or receive Inside Markets as a daily email? Join the Jackson Square Capital community by sending an email to hello@jacksonsquarecap.com.

Ten year real yields are now at the upper-end of technical resistance as the SPX reaches short-term over sold levels. Would you like to learn more about Jackson Square Capital or receive Inside Markets as a daily email? Join the Jackson Square Capital community by sending an email to hello@jacksonsquarecap.com.

U.S. equities remain relatively resilient despite higher short-dated bond yields. Would you like to learn more about Jackson Square Capital or receive Inside Markets as a daily email? Join the Jackson Square Capital community by sending an email to hello@jacksonsquarecap.com.

A higher median dot coming out of the March 22 Fed meeting is the most apparent near-term risk for equity markets, and technical indicators continue to offer little near term direction.  Would you like to learn more about Jackson Square Capital or receive Inside Markets as a daily email? Join the Jackson Square Capital community by sending an email to hello@jacksonsquarecap.com.