Inside Markets

US economic data continues to surprise to the upside resulting in cyclical equity outperformance and higher bond yields. Would you like to learn more about Jackson Square Capital or receive Inside Markets as a daily email? Join the Jackson Square Capital community by sending an email to hello@jacksonsquarecap.com.

History suggests its wise to remain skeptical about the prospects for an economic soft landing. Would you like to learn more about Jackson Square Capital or receive Inside Markets as a daily email? Join the Jackson Square Capital community by sending an email to hello@jacksonsquarecap.com.

The SPX remains technically overbought despite a -2.2% pullback over the last six sessions. Would you like to learn more about Jackson Square Capital or receive Inside Markets as a daily email? Join the Jackson Square Capital community by sending an email to hello@jacksonsquarecap.com.

Equities are starting the week mostly lower into month-end and quarter-end rebalancing. Would you like to learn more about Jackson Square Capital or receive Inside Markets as a daily email? Join the Jackson Square Capital community by sending an email to hello@jacksonsquarecap.com.

Today’s disappointing manufacturing PMIs are a step in the wrong direction with cyclical groups under pressure. Would you like to learn more about Jackson Square Capital or receive Inside Markets as a daily email? Join the Jackson Square Capital community by sending an email to hello@jacksonsquarecap.com.

A flash manufacturing PMI number of 51 seems more likely than 48, and anything north of 50 will take the SPX higher by validating the recent move in homebuilders, semis and transports. Would you like to learn more about Jackson Square Capital or receive Inside Markets as a daily email? Join the Jackson Square Capital community by sending an email to hello@jacksonsquarecap.com.

Markets are waiting for a traditional recession or soft landing to follow the Fed’s tightening cycle, but there may be a third template that fits better. Would you like to learn more about Jackson Square Capital or receive Inside Markets as a daily email? Join the Jackson Square Capital community by sending an email to hello@jacksonsquarecap.com.

The SPX needs cyclical sector leadership to sustain higher levels from here. Would you like to learn more about Jackson Square Capital or receive Inside Markets as a daily email? Join the Jackson Square Capital community by sending an email to hello@jacksonsquarecap.com.

The S&P 500 has gained +5.7% since the index broke technical resistance at ~4200. Thin leadership and narrow breadth on the approach to 4200 were reasons to remain tactically bearish. Would you like to learn more about Jackson Square Capital or receive Inside Markets as a daily email? Join the Jackson Square Capital community by sending an email to hello@jacksonsquarecap.com.

Yesterday’s Fed meeting is being characterized as a ‘hawkish skip’ after the revised dot plot implied two more rate hikes rather than one.   Would you like to learn more about Jackson Square Capital or receive Inside Markets as a daily email? Join the Jackson Square Capital community by sending an email to hello@jacksonsquarecap.com.

Yesterday's CPI print delivered a favorable outcome for risk assets. Would you like to learn more about Jackson Square Capital or receive Inside Markets as a daily email? Join the Jackson Square Capital community by sending an email to hello@jacksonsquarecap.com.

Widening market breadth beginning in late May removes a key technical concern for the sustainability for the rally. Would you like to learn more about Jackson Square Capital or receive Inside Markets as a daily email? Join the Jackson Square Capital community by sending an email to hello@jacksonsquarecap.com.

Consensus is looking for YoY headline CPI to drop to +4.1% from 4.9% last month and the core rate falling to +5.3% from 5.5%. Would you like to learn more about Jackson Square Capital or receive Inside Markets as a daily email? Join the Jackson Square Capital community by sending an email to hello@jacksonsquarecap.com.

Yesterday’s higher-than-expected jobless claims pushed bond yields lower, which led to some reversion in recent cyclical and small cap outperformance Would you like to learn more about Jackson Square Capital or receive Inside Markets as a daily email? Join the Jackson Square Capital community by sending an email to hello@jacksonsquarecap.com.

The likelihood of a US recession took a step forward after today’s jobless claims number rose above +260,000. Would you like to learn more about Jackson Square Capital or receive Inside Markets as a daily email? Join the Jackson Square Capital community by sending an email to hello@jacksonsquarecap.com.

The probability of a June Fed rate hike increases to 40% after the RBA and BOC surprised markets with hikes. Would you like to learn more about Jackson Square Capital or receive Inside Markets as a daily email? Join the Jackson Square Capital community by sending an email to hello@jacksonsquarecap.com.

Broad sector participation returns this morning with the Russell 2000 (RTY) outperforming on state-run media reports about expected China stimulus in the back half of the year. Would you like to learn more about Jackson Square Capital or receive Inside Markets as a daily email? Join the Jackson Square Capital community by sending an email to hello@jacksonsquarecap.com.

Today's ISM services report fits the disinflation narrative that reemerged in mid-April. Would you like to learn more about Jackson Square Capital or receive Inside Markets as a daily email? Join the Jackson Square Capital community by sending an email to hello@jacksonsquarecap.com.

Yesterday's rally was supported by positive flows that started in the futures market during trading hours. This may have contributed to broadening leadership and participation from underperforming sectors such as REITS. Would you like to learn more about Jackson Square Capital or receive Inside Markets as a daily email? Join the Jackson Square Capital community by sending an email to hello@jac...

The S&P 500 (SPX) is trading above 4200 with cyclical leadership and broad sector participation. The improvement in market internals is encouraging, but closing levels are more important. Would you like to learn more about Jackson Square Capital or receive Inside Markets as a daily email? Join the Jackson Square Capital community by sending an email to hello@jacksonsquarecap.com.

Fed officials continue to use hawkish rhetoric with rising expectations for another rate hike in June. Would you like to learn more about Jackson Square Capital or receive Inside Markets as a daily email? Join the Jackson Square Capital community by sending an email to hello@jacksonsquarecap.com.

Assuming the debt ceiling agreement is passed this week simply means that market attention will shift back to the challenging macro backdrop. US inflation data remains elevated, global manufacturing PMIs are in contraction and China activity data is rolling over.  Would you like to learn more about Jackson Square Capital or receive Inside Markets as a daily email? Join the Jackson Square Capital c...

Gains in AI-related stocks have started a performance chasing rally that threatens the upper end of the S&P 500’s technical resistance band near 4200. Would you like to learn more about Jackson Square Capital or receive Inside Markets as a daily email? Join the Jackson Square Capital community by sending an email to hello@jacksonsquarecap.com.

US equities are mixed with Tech as the upside standout after strong overnight results from NVDA.  Would you like to learn more about Jackson Square Capital or receive Inside Markets as a daily email? Join the Jackson Square Capital community by sending an email to hello@jacksonsquarecap.com.

Yesterday's risk-off trade occurred 10 days before the estimated debt ceiling x-date of June 1. Would you like to learn more about Jackson Square Capital or receive Inside Markets as a daily email? Join the Jackson Square Capital community by sending an email to hello@jacksonsquarecap.com.