Inside Markets

A combination of factors have us currently bullish on bond duration. Would you like to learn more about Jackson Square Capital or receive Inside Markets as a daily email? Join the Jackson Square Capital community by sending an email to hello@jacksonsquarecap.com.

Steep curve inversion and tepid US growth data from Q4'22-Q1'23 generated consensus for an imminent recession. Would you like to learn more about Jackson Square Capital or receive Inside Markets as a daily email? Join the Jackson Square Capital community by sending an email to hello@jacksonsquarecap.com.

The credit rating downgrade is more about sentiment than any kind of direct impact. Would you like to learn more about Jackson Square Capital or receive Inside Markets as a daily email? Join the Jackson Square Capital community by sending an email to hello@jacksonsquarecap.com.

Recent tightening with yesterday's SLOOS report suggests the economy should slow into year end. Would you like to learn more about Jackson Square Capital or receive Inside Markets as a daily email? Join the Jackson Square Capital community by sending an email to hello@jacksonsquarecap.com.

Ten year yields still look like they peaked last October at 4.2%.  A new high in the 10-year yield would take equities lower, where a move to ~3.5% would likely drive the S&P 500 (SPX) to a new all-time high.   Would you like to learn more about Jackson Square Capital or receive Inside Markets as a daily email? Join the Jackson Square Capital community by sending an email to hello@jacksonsquar...

Aggregate US data continues to support the soft landing narrative with today's ECI and PCE reports helping to ease inflation concerns. Would you like to learn more about Jackson Square Capital or receive Inside Markets as a daily email? Join the Jackson Square Capital community by sending an email to hello@jacksonsquarecap.com

The Q2 earnings season is coming in better than expected with the SPX beat rate recently lifting above the 5-year average. Would you like to learn more about Jackson Square Capital or receive Inside Markets as a daily email? Join the Jackson Square Capital community by sending an email to hello@jacksonsquarecap.com

The bar is higher this quarter for mega-cap Tech earnings, but results have been largely inline with expectations thus far. Would you like to learn more about Jackson Square Capital or receive Inside Markets as a daily email? Join the Jackson Square Capital community by sending an email to hello@jacksonsquarecap.com.

Markets are priced for a 25bp rate hike and a message that signals a pause in the hiking cycle. Would you like to learn more about Jackson Square Capital or receive Inside Markets as a daily email? Join the Jackson Square Capital community by sending an email to hello@jacksonsquarecap.com.

The combination of marginally hawkish Fed and underwhelming mega-cap Tech results would be catalysts for a pullback in the SPX. Would you like to learn more about Jackson Square Capital or receive Inside Markets as a daily email? Join the Jackson Square Capital community by sending an email to hello@jacksonsquarecap.com.

Yesterday’s -2.3% sell-off in the Nasdaq 100 was a 2 standard deviation move triggered by disappointing earnings and rising bond yields amid very crowded positioning. Would you like to learn more about Jackson Square Capital or receive Inside Markets as a daily email? Join the Jackson Square Capital community by sending an email to hello@jacksonsquarecap.com.

There are no signs yet of bearish momentum divergence for the S&P 500, so a period of consolidation is or initial expectation. Would you like to learn more about Jackson Square Capital or receive Inside Markets as a daily email? Join the Jackson Square Capital community by sending an email to hello@jacksonsquarecap.com.

Expected July rate hikes are now widely thought to be the last. Would you like to learn more about Jackson Square Capital or receive Inside Markets as a daily email? Join the Jackson Square Capital community by sending an email to hello@jacksonsquarecap.com.

Would you like to learn more about Jackson Square Capital or receive Inside Markets as a daily email? Join the Jackson Square Capital community by sending an email to hello@jacksonsquarecap.com. The macro narrative continues to shift toward a soft landing after yesterday’s Empire Fed manufacturing index came in better than expected with big declines in prices paid and prices received.

Reaching overbought status increases the likelihood for a momentum unwind. Would you like to learn more about Jackson Square Capital or receive Inside Markets as a daily email? Join the Jackson Square Capital community by sending an email to hello@jacksonsquarecap.com.

Focus has already shifted from disinflation to Q2 earnings season. Would you like to learn more about Jackson Square Capital or receive Inside Markets as a daily email? Join the Jackson Square Capital community by sending an email to hello@jacksonsquarecap.com.

Central banks may be underestimating the potential pace of global disinflation. Would you like to learn more about Jackson Square Capital or receive Inside Markets as a daily email? Join the Jackson Square Capital community by sending an email to hello@jacksonsquarecap.com.

The below-consensus outcome of 3% should make an almost certain July Fed rate hike the last of the cycle. Would you like to learn more about Jackson Square Capital or receive Inside Markets as a daily email? Join the Jackson Square Capital community by sending an email to hello@jacksonsquarecap.com.

We present our probabilities for tomorrow's June CPI report, which is an important catalyst for markets. Would you like to learn more about Jackson Square Capital or receive Inside Markets as a daily email? Join the Jackson Square Capital community by sending an email to hello@jacksonsquarecap.com.

Friday's softer non-farm payroll number was the first miss after 14 consecutive months of hotter-than-expected readings. Would you like to learn more about Jackson Square Capital or receive Inside Markets as a daily email? Join the Jackson Square Capital community by sending an email to hello@jacksonsquarecap.com.

The S&P 500 (SPX) decelerates on its approach to technical resistance in the 4515-4535 range as the rally shows signs of exhaustion. Would you like to learn more about Jackson Square Capital or receive Inside Markets as a daily email? Join the Jackson Square Capital community by sending an email to hello@jacksonsquarecap.com.

Today’s advance in 2-year yields drives the risk free rate beyond the earnings yield on the SPX. Would you like to learn more about Jackson Square Capital or receive Inside Markets as a daily email? Join the Jackson Square Capital community by sending an email to hello@jacksonsquarecap.com.

Today’s weaker factory orders number provides the first downtick in the US Economic Surprise Index (ESI) in nearly two weeks.   Would you like to learn more about Jackson Square Capital or receive Inside Markets as a daily email? Join the Jackson Square Capital community by sending an email to hello@jacksonsquarecap.com.

The pain trade remains skewed to the upside as the SPX tests cycle highs this morning. Would you like to learn more about Jackson Square Capital or receive Inside Markets as a daily email? Join the Jackson Square Capital community by sending an email to hello@jacksonsquarecap.com.

The S&P 500 (SPX) has been able to keep its upward momentum despite rising bond yields. Would you like to learn more about Jackson Square Capital or receive Inside Markets as a daily email? Join the Jackson Square Capital community by sending an email to hello@jacksonsquarecap.com.