Inflection Point

On today's episode of On The Margin Mike Ippolito is joined by Andreas Steno Larsen and Alfonso Peccatiello for a special announcement: Their new podcast “The Macro Trading Floor” will be launching Sunday, April 17th on the Blockworks network with a VERY special guest. To stay up to date with the new show, subscribe here: apple.co/38Maf8f With inflation soaring over 8%, bond markets selling off, a...

In this episode I am joined by my colleagues and special guest hosts Jack Farley and Byron Gilliam. We went through a whole range of topics today, beginning with the bond market. We gave everyone an update on the rate hikes that the market is pricing in (spoiler alert: it's a lot), the historic rout happening at the long end of the curve, and how the Fed is likely to respond. We also discussed how...

On today's episode of On The Margin, Mike Ippolito is joined by returning guest Eric Basmajian, founder of EPB Macro Research. After correctly identifying signs of decelerating growth months ahead of most, Eric comes back to the podcast to share how he forecast the economic slowdown. As the yield curve inverts, GDP numbers begin downward revisions and investors deal with soaring prices across the...

In todays On The Margin weekly roundup, Mark & I begin by discussing the 2yr 10yr yield curve inversion. Is the bond market signalling a recession on the horizon? What will this mean for other asset classes such as stocks, commodities & crypto? We then transition to discussing the work from home dynamic and whether employees will cause an exodus out of big cities, whilst demanding the same wages....

In this episode of On The Margin Mike Ippolito is joined by returning guest Mike McGlone, the Senior Commodity Strategist at Bloomberg Intelligence. With 20+ years in the industry as a Trader, Analyst & Strategist, Mike offers a unique perspective on the forces driving global markets, with particular expertise on global commodity markets. As war between Russia & Ukraine continues, we invited Mike...

In this episode, Mark and I got deep into the biggest stories of the week. We covered the rising costs of oil, and the $11 billion and $16.5 billion relief packages from California and Germany. We also got into recent comments from Ray Dalio of Bridgewater and Larry Fink of Blackrock embracing crypto, but why that might not be as sunny as it first may seem. And finally we closed the session out on...

In this episode of On The Margin Mike Ippolito is joined by returning guest & former Hedge Fund Manager Russell Clark of Russell Clark Investment Management. After spending over a decade as an Investment Manager, Russell joins On The Margin to discuss the period of change we find ourselves in. From trends in inflation to the evolution of market structure & reliance on clearing houses, Russell prov...

In this week's round up, Mark and I were joined by special guest Brent Johnson of Santiago Capital. Among many other things, Brent is famous for his "dollar milkshake theory," which is his view of what a sovereign debt crisis will look like in the future. Brent kicked things off by giving us a rehash of the milkshake theory and his thoughts on what the dollar may do over the course of the next dec...

In this episode of On The Margin Mike Ippolito is joined by Neil Howe Author of the best-selling book The Fourth Turning. Cycles often resurge throughout history, booms & busts, highs & lows, ascending & descending empires. We often forget history is full of these recurring cycles, thats why we invited Neil Howe to On The Margin, an expert on generational cycles to the show to discuss what the cyc...

In this week's episode, Mark and I covered two topics: Biden's execurive order on crypto, and inflation data. We kicked things off with the Biden's executive order. We covered what it actually is, what it isn't, and which agencies the order referred to. After that, we took a deep dive into February's inflation print. We also took a look at the rising cost of oil and how that impacts economies. Mar...

In this episode of On The Margin Mike Ippolito is joined by Leland Miller, CEO of China Beige Book International for a deep dive into the Chinese financial system. After founding China Beige Book over 12 years ago, Leland provides a data driven assessment of the Chinese economy exploring whether China's growth model is coming to an end. Leland also discusses China's financial deleveraging, the dem...

In this week's round up, Mark and I are joined by special guest Mike Green of Simplify Asset Management. This week we were focused on answering one big question: "how will sanctions and financial exclusion reshape geopolitics?" We kicked things off with a quote from Dwight Eisenhower's famous 1961 farewell address, wherein he coined the term "the military industrial complex." Eisenhower alluded to...

In this episode of “On The Margin,” Mike Ippolito is joined by anonymous analyst Mr. Blonde. Taking a break from diamond heists and bank robberies, Mr. Blonde joins us to discuss whether Jerome Powell will be forced to pivot Fed rate hikes in 2022. Mr. Blonde also shares his outlook on growth for 2022 and chats about market returns during Fed tightening cycles. They discuss how the Russia-Ukraine...

In this week's round up, Mark and I dug into the investor uncertainty caused by the Russia Ukraine conflict. Disclaimer: war is always first and foremost a humanitarian crisis. It goes without saying that our hearts go out to Ukraine and those involved in the conflict. Mark and I focused on the markets angle because we aren't geopolitical experts and that is where our expertise lies. The most impo...

In this episode of On The Margin Mike Ippolito is joined by Jurrien Timmer Director of Global Macro at Fidelity & PlanB the anonymous quant investor & creator of the Bitcoin S2F model.  Jurrien & PlanB discuss the current macro forces that are driving markets from Fed rate hikes, yield curve inversion & equity market valuations. In the second half of the discussion, Jurrien & PlanB discuss valuati...

In this week's episode, Mark and I covered the rising cost of energy and the impact it's having on global economies. Next we went on to discuss record bearish sentiment in markets, and what that may signal for the days and months ahead. Next, we did an updated on "Powell Pivot Watch," and re-examined the similarities between the Fed rate hike cycle in 2018 to where we are today. We did a refresher...

In this episode of On The Margin Mike Ippolito is joined by returning guests Alex Gladstein, Greg Foss & Jeff Booth to discuss the ongoing Freedom Convoy Protests in Canada. We invited our guests to discuss the origins of the protests & how the situation in Canada has evolved. Tune in to hear Alex, Greg & Jeff cover why Canadian truckers are protesting, how these protests compare with Occupy Wall...

In this week's episode, I am joined by Forward Guidance's Jack Farley & Joseph Wang for a surprise cross-over (that we all knew was coming eventually ;) We missed Mark unfortunately who is away skiing, but he was with us in spirit and wore his bitcoin bull market socks in solidarity. We'll get em next week Mark! We kicked things off with a deep dive into the record 7.5% CPI print. We took a look a...

In this episode of On The Margin Mike Ippolito is joined by Charles Edwards, Founder of Capriole Investments. After releasing his Capriole's 2022 Market Outlook newsletter, we invited Charles to the show for a discussion about what he expects for 2022 & beyond. Charles shares his thoughts on the macro outlook for 2022, where Bitcoin becomes a value vs momentum play, Bitcoin vs Ethereum & Bitcoin's...

In this episode, Mark and I were joined by special guest Timothy Peterson to discuss a very important topic: how to properly value Bitcoin. I've included a summary of our content below, but if you are interested in finding out more info about Tim or his approach, there are lots of good resources on his website here. To kick things off, Tim gave us his framework for how to value Bitcoin, which reli...

On today's episode of On The Margin Mike Ippolito is joined by Dan Morehead of Pantera Capital & Dan Tapiero of 10T. With collectively over 40 years in the hedge fund business at notable firms such as Tiger Management, before later pivoting to crypto in 2014, these two provide a unique insight into the growth of the crypto industry and just how big it could become over the next decade. Dan & Dan s...

In this episode Mark and I covered two big topics: the fallout of Wednesday's FOMC meeting, and the announcement that the White House is cracking down on crypto as a matter of "national security." We kicked things off with one of my favorite charts of all time, the S&P going back to 1926 superimposed over every reason investors had to sell. Helps provide some perspective, you know? Next we covered...

In this episode of On The Margin Mike is joined by Andreas Steno Larsen Director & Lead Economist of Heimstaden. After spending 10+ years as a Chief Global Strategist, FX Analyst & Researcher at Nordea, Andreas provides a unique insight into the current macro factors driving markets. Andreas shares his global macro outlook for 2022, his thoughts on the effect tapering will have on markets, the slo...

This week in On the Margin, we have a special bonus episode for you. There's lots going on in markets and we thought if ever there were a time to speak to as many smart people as possible, it's now. In this week's episode we are joined by CoinShares Chairman Danny Masters and FTX's Jon Cheesman to give us a preview for the FOMC meeting on Wednesday. We also covered the increasing connection betwee...

In this round up, Mark and I are joined by Arca CIO Jeff Dorman to answer the one question on everyone's mind: what is driving the flash crash in crypto markets? We discussed the impact the Fed's tightening is having on markets, why the PBOC's rate cuts aren't having as much of an effect on crypto, the importance of a strong Bitcoin to crypto markets, and where we will see dispersion in crypto in...