Inflection Point

On today's episode of "On the Margin", Lyn Alden of Lyn Alden Investment Strategy joins the show. Lyn begins by explaining the energy shock she spotted in 2021 walking through her most recent piece "Energy: The Area Under the Curve". Lyn then shares her outlook on the U.S Dollar wrecking ball as the DXY breaches 20 year highs trading over 108. How will a rising U.S Dollar effect the chances of a r...

In this week's episode, Mark and I kick things off discussing the recent volatility in crypto markets. We then move on to discussing the bailouts in crypto by SBF and the comparisons between CeFi vs DeFi. Mark and I then touch on the Fed's quantitative tightening & balance sheet reduction, rising interest rates, record high inflation and how tightening into a recession is causing political strife...

On today's episode of "On the Margin," Jim Bianco of Bianco Research joins the show for a discussion on inflation. Arguing that we are "entering an era of persistent inflation", Jim walks through the biggest winners in this market environment. After correctly predicting the Fed's hawkish stance ahead of most analysts, Jim shares his thoughts on the bond market pricing in a pivot throughout 2023. J...

With Mark out, we have special guest filling in, Blockworks’ own Jack Farley, macro researcher and host of the Forward Guidance podcast. Jack explains how three recent events have made him think that a recession is more likely: moves in interest rates that suggest the Fed might pivot earlier than previously anticipated; the sharp fall in copper, cotton, and other commodity prices; and, most import...

On today’s episode of “On the Margin” Sid Powell Co Founder of Maple Finance joins the show to discuss the recent credit contagion taking place in crypto.  With liquidity drying up in crypto & markets at large, deleveraging & liquidations have been taking place across the board. Sid joins the show to discuss the recent risk-off sentiment in markets and explains the differences between CeFi and DeF...

In this week's episode, Mark and I kick things off with the current state of crypto markets. We next move into the economy, what the Fed is doing, and increasing economic indicators that we are heading towards a recession. Finally we wrap things up with the state of lending and credit in crypto, including the "runs on the bank" that we're seeing at Celsius and similar companies. For Mark and my ta...

SoFi’s Liz Young joins us on today’s episode of “On the Margin” for a post-FOMC rundown. When the Fed abandoned its anticipated 50 bp increase in favor of a 75 bp rate hike on the back of the Department of Labor announcing a higher-than-expected CPI of 8.6%, markets had a violent repricing. Liz, SoFi’s head of investment strategy, walks listeners through the forces driving the Fed’s tightening cyc...

In this episode, Mark, Dan Tapiero and I discuss the latest FOMC meeting, the 75 basis point raise and the carnage rippling through the markets. Inflation is at record highs but are the FED’s rate hikes a precision tool or a blunt instrument that will cause lasting market damage? We explore the global financial market, crypto’s outlook and the most likely outcome of the bear market. Will the Fed r...

On today’s episode of “On the Margin,” Director of Global Macro at Fidelity Jurrien Timmer joins the show. As markets were in turmoil on Monday after a surging 8.6% inflation print on Friday, Jurrien joined the show to discuss all the macro forces driving markets. With bond yields spiking, equity markets selling off, crypto getting crushed, credit showing signs of stress and investors fleeing for...

In this episode, Mark and I tackle the growing bubble in consumer credit. We take a look at the personal savings rate and compared it to the sudden staggering increase in revolving credit. We discussed the evolution of banking in recent history, the growing and worrisome trend of "Buy Now Pay Later" and Apple's foray into that field, and covered the overall psychology of consumers during a recessi...

On today’s episode of “On the Margin,” former senior Federal Reserve trader Joseph Wang joins the show for a discussion on quantitative tightening. Citing Joseph's most recent piece "Turbo Tightening,” Mike and Joseph walk listeners through the monetary mechanics driving the Fed's balance sheet and the $2 trillion at the reverse repo. They then break down what this means for markets, specifically...

Charts Discussed In Today's Episode: https://bit.ly/3Q4P4zA In this week's episode, Mike and Mark get into a subject that is near and dear to everyone's heart: layoffs. The episode begins by getting into the raw numbers: initial and continuing jobless claims, the change in recent reports from ADP, and the record number of mentions of "hiring freeze" from CEOs. Next Mike and Mark cover how monetary...

On today’s episode of “On the Margin,” David Rosenberg joins the show to discuss the mounting risk of recession. Investors are battling with the highest inflation the US has seen in 40 years. PMIs are contracting in China, M2 growth is turning negative, and consumers have begun to reign in spending. David forecasts a substantial economic slowdown and sees the threat of recession creeping closer —...

The On The Margin weekly round up returns! After a busy week in Palm Beach for the Blockworks event Permissionless, your favourite weekly round up is back to discuss the biggest stories in markets. Mike and Mark focus on tackling the narratives that were popular during the bull market to see how they are holding up during 2022's unwind. Can the Fed raise rates considering the amount of outstanding...

On today’s episode of “On the Margin,” Ben Cowen, CEO of Into The Cryptoverse joins the show to discuss the crypto winter and bear market many investors are experiencing. As sentiment shifts, Bitcoin dominance begins rising & macro forces drive widely viewed risk assets lower, Ben gives a measured & data driven analysis of the fundamentals driving Bitcoin and crypto more broadly. Should we expect...

On today’s episode of “On the Margin,” Steve Van Metre joins the show to discuss Fed chair Powell's plan to crash the stock market in 2022. With soaring inflation, the Fed embarks on its plan to tighten financial conditions at an accelerating pace with stock holders being the number one target. Steve also discusses the state of the bond market, signs of a looming recession, when we may see a marke...

In this week's episode, Mark and I focus primarily on one story: the depegging of UST and evaporation of Luna. We cover a brief overview of UST, what the algorithmic model was that underpinned it, and what caused it to come undone. We also got into the aftermath of an explosion like this, and the contagion that could spread out into the ecosystem. We also discussed what new entrants to crypto shou...

On today’s episode of “On the Margin,” Peter Boockvar, chief investment officer at Bleakley Advisory Group, joins the show to discuss the Fed’s dilemma. With markets selling off in reaction to one of the fastest hiking cycles in recent history, Peter explains how current inflation rates have "put the Fed in handcuffs.” Peter shares his outlook for both the stock and bond markets, answering the que...

In this episode, Mark and I are focused on answering one question: what is going on with markets? We kick things off with a quick summary of the equity and bond markets, both of which are having some of their worst starts to the year ever. In the case of the US 10 year, YTD performance through April is the worst it's been since 1778! Next we moved onto three unsustainable states of being in the ma...

On today’s episode of “On the Margin,” founder and managing director of DeFi Advisors Michael Nicoletos shares the macro forces driving the dollar higher. As risk mounts, recession warnings loom, and investors take flight for safe haven assets, it's no wonder the dollar finds itself rallying past March 2020 highs. With an expertise in FX markets, Michael shares how the dollar wrecking ball will im...

In this episode, Mark and I started off with an old topic that is just resurfacing: the criminal charges being levied against ex-Tiger Cub Bill Hwang. Next we moved onto the slowing growth in GDP, precipitous rise of the DXY, and the damage being done to tech stocks compared to crypto. Finally we ended things on Fidelity's decision to allow 401K participants to include Bitcoin and the Labor Depart...

On today’s episode of “On the Margin,” 42 Macro founder and CEO Darius Dale gives listeners the details on his four horsemen of market risk signals and what they tell us about potential hazards brewing in the market. Along with host Michael Ippolito, Darius walks us through his point of view on the Fed’s inflation fears, the Bank of Japan’s reinstatement of yield curve control, and warning signs c...

In this episode, Mark and I kick things off with Netflix's earnings. After posting their first ever subscriber loss, the stock tumbled nearly 40% costing recent investor Bill Ackman $430 Million in just three months. We covered what this recent sell-off might portent for tech stocks moving forward. After Netflix we moved on to discuss the Yen and it's rapid slide against the dollar. Mark gave some...

On today's episode of On The Margin, Mike Ippolito is joined by Blockdaemon CEO & Founder Konstantin Richter to discuss the rise & fall of crypto culture. When sentiment shifts in crypto markets, founders build conviction. Konstantin reminds us of previous cycles & shares why he has never been more optimistic on the future of crypto than right now. Mike & Konstantin also discuss the founding of Bl...

In this week's episode, we started off with a recap of Bitcoin Miami from Mark. Next we launched into March's record breaking CPI print, and where Mark sees inflation heading from here. Next we moved into PPI (Producer Price Index) and PMI (Purchasing Manager's Index), what those economic indicators mean, and what they can tell us about the next 18 months of growth. We took a look at food inflatio...