Inflection Point

On today's episode of "On the Margin", Julian Brigden Co-founder of Macro Intelligence 2 Partners for a discussion on the hyper-financialization of the U.S economy, and how that trend may now be in reverse. Looking back at historic periods of both monetary and fiscal policy being enacted together, Julian was able to identify the trend of inflation at the end of 2020 and beginning of 2021. Since po...

Recorded on Monday 26th: Before the BoE's Gilt announcement On today's episode of "On the Margin", Mike McGlone Senior Commodity Strategist at Bloomberg joins the the show for a wide ranging discussion. As the U.S Dollar continues rising, markets are beginning to crack. Is there any end in sight for economies around the world? We also discuss what is happening in energy, commodity and crypto marke...

On today's episode of "On the Margin", Doomberg, everyones favorite green chicken, joins the the show for an update on the European energy crisis. After making bold claims throughout 2021 on the global energy situation, and particularly in Europe, Doomberg provides an update on the state of the European energy crisis. How severe will the impact of high energy prices be for Europe ahead of winter,...

As central banks around the world further increased interest rates, everyone looked to the most important central bank in markets, and that's the Fed. Powell raised by an expected 75bp on Wednesday, signalling "it will be enough". Markets were confused after the initial announcement, but selling increased hours after the announcement, not holding up until Friday's session. Are markets bracing for...

On today's episode of "On the Margin", Jack Farley, friend of the show and Host of another Blockworks podcast “Forward Guidance”, joins the show for a discussion on the central banking super bowl. As over 20 central banks around the world decide their key policy rates this week, including the Fed, BoE & SNB, we invited Jack to the show to share his thoughts on what this means for equities, bonds &...

After uniting at the Blockworks Digital Asset Summit, Mike & Mark are back to reflect on the conference and dive into the top stories of the week. Markets had their biggest one day sell-off in almost 2 years due to a higher than expected inflation print, FedEX CEO Raj Subramaniam warns of a "worldwide recession" and the Ethereum merge is successfully deployed. Luckily Mike & Mark are on hand to br...

On today's episode of "On the Margin", Danielle DiMartino Booth CEO & Chief Strategist of Quill Intelligence joins the show for a discussion on the Fed and the policy decisions they face throughout 2022 & into 2023. Last time Danielle joined the show, it was January, at the beginning of the year, as it had become clear the Fed stayed too loose, for too long. In that conversation, we discussed what...

This week we discuss one of the biggest news stories in crypto markets as investors await one of the most anticipated events in years, the Ethereum merge. As many grapple with the bull & bear case for the Eth merge, Mark & Mike discuss how they see the merge playing out from their perspective. Could this be a classic case of Buy the Rumor, Sell the News? To find out, you'll have to tune in! -- Att...

On today's episode of "On the Margin", Dario Perkins MD of global macro at TS Lombard joins the show for a discussion on the new macro supercycle. As de-globilization increasingly becomes one of the key forces driving markets, Dario walks through one of his recent pieces titled "The Nightmare Scenario For Central Banks". Drawing historical comparisons between today's economy with both the 1940's &...

Mark returns on this episode of the round up, and after briefly discussing the matter with Jack last week, I decided to check in with Mark on his thoughts on the US Bond Market. We transition then into talking about the housing market, the soaring fixed mortgage rates, and the lag in home prices that follows. Next I get Mark's thoughts on the recent bear rally, before closing out our round up with...

On today's episode of "On the Margin", Michael Howell CEO of Crossborder Capital joins the show for a discussion on the number one force driving markets, liquidity. Discussing Michael's book titled "Capital Wars: The Rise of Global Liquidity", Howell walks through the role of global liquidity, increasing debt and volatility on today's financial system. Have these three factors made our financial s...

Blockworks just released a new podcast called Bell Curve! We're dropping the pilot episode here as we think you might want to add this podcast to the lineup. Season one of Bell Curve revolves around our DeFi credit boom thesis. Simply put, CeFi's implosion will create a DeFi credit boom that will bring new users and fixed-rate lending markets to DeFi. What products will be created? Who will be the...

This week we're joined by Forward Guidance's Jack Farley! We begin by discussing our takes on the recent announcement concerning student loan forgiveness, before pivoting to what we predict will be heard at the Jackson Hole meeting. After that we move into a discussion about energy prices in Europe, with Germany as a focal point. Jack then speaks on the state of China's real estate market. Finally...

On today's episode of "On the Margin", Luke Gromen Founder & President of Forest for the Trees (FFTT) joins the show for a discussion on the U.S Dollar's role in the global economy. After spending the past number of years outlining his thesis and the importance energy plays in being the global reserve currency issuer, now was the perfect time to get Luke back on the show to break down some of the...

In this week's episode, Mark and I discuss the repercussions of the Fed’s attempt to contrive certainty in financial markets. We start the discussion by looking at the US’ long-term GDP growth. The chart looks great, but is the Fed’s market manipulation setting us up for a surprise? Inflation and record-high debt are just two symptoms of the Fed’s attempt to create certainty in entropic markets. ...

On today's episode of "On the Margin", Ben Hunt Author of Epsilon Theory and Mike Green Chief Strategist at Simplify Asset Management join the show for a discussion around one of Ben's recent articles "Hollow Men, Hollow Markets, Hollow World". Ben and Mike compare household net worth and GDP which substantially diverged post 1990 when Alan Greenspan was Federal Reserve Chairman. Post Greenspan sa...

In this week's episode, Mark and I cover this week's CPI print, the state of macro, Coinbase’s earnings miss, and a historical US ban on an Ethereum privacy protocol. We start with a discussion on the lower-than-expected CPI print, deglobalization and ask if the FED still thinks they can provide a soft landing.  We then dive into Coinbase’s Q2 earnings and $1B reported loss. Can Coinbase establish...

On today's episode of "On the Margin", Jordi Alexander CIO of Selini Capital joins the show to discuss how inflation is driving demand for UBI. We begin discussing Jordi's outlook for the rest of 2022 with a major focus on the U.S Dollar and how the rising dollar could lead to liquidity problems. Drawing parallels to 2020, when the Fed extended U.S Dollar swap lines all around the world, Jordi exp...

In this week's episode, Mark and I are joined by Zaheer Ebitkar of Ledger Prime to cover a very important question: is the crypto bottom in? Zaheer walked us through one of the most important drivers of liquidity and price action in crypto markets today: stablecoins. We discussed the different type of stables that exist in the market today, how they impact liquidity conditions, and how different s...

On today's episode of "On the Margin", Amy Wu of FTX Ventures joins the show for a discussion on the venture capital industry both in traditional markets and crypto. After an explosion in VC funding throughout 2021, how have current market conditions effected private markets throughout 2022? As investors reconsider the valuations they are willing to pay compared to 2021, just how has this influenc...

In this week's episode, we discuss the Fed's attempt to crush all consumer demand. Mark believes we've just entered crypto spring, but that enthusiasm takes a turn as we discuss the Fed. With two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth, we can officially (or now unofficially) say we are in a recession. I got Mark's take on the Fed's actions, expected fallout and future CPI prints. Next, we dis...

On today's episode of "On the Margin", Lawrence Lepard and Brent Johnson join Mike to discuss the dark side of a strong US dollar. We start with an overview of the US Dollar's role as the global reserve currency and how the dollar system is causing many of the problems we have today. Can the US dollar maintain its reserve status or are things falling apart? Then, Lawrence and Brent explain how a s...

In this week's episode, we discuss everyone's favorite subject: the bear market. I got Mark's take on the current bear, how it compares to previous bear markets in crypto, and what we should expect over the coming year. Next, we took a look at who has been selling Bitcoin in May and June. The largest (forced) seller was the Luna Foundation Guard, closely followed by Elon Musk's Tesla. We spent som...

On today's episode of "On the Margin", Anonymous analyst Mr Blonde joins the show for a discussion on the cyclical forces driving markets in 2022. We discuss the increasing recession signals and how they will effect earnings for the second half of 2022. With a rising dollar, 9.1% inflation, an increasingly hawkish Fed and the end of "peak liquidity", just how will all these forces effect equity ma...

In this week's episode, Mark and I kick things off discussing the Bitcoin market. Could crypto winter be passing and signs of crypto spring be starting to emerge?  We then move on to discuss the historic value of equities going all he way back to 1871 vs now in 2022. With still elevated P/E's, is there more pain to come for equities despite rising rates? We draw parallels between the 2001 tech bub...