In Moscow's Shadows

The final batch of patrons' and listeners' questions answered - sometimes better than others - on everything from Ekaterina Schulmann's "reverse cargo cult" thesis to the flaws of liberal politics, Naryshkin's fumbles to naval dilemmas in the Ukraine war. You can also follow my blog, In Moscow's Shadows , and become one of the podcast's supporting Patrons an...

I look at the career of Igor Girkin, better known as Strelkov, the ultra-nationalist who has turned against Putin - but gets away with it. What does it tell us about Russian politics? In the second half, I read the coda added to later editions of my book 'We Need To Talk About Putin' to reflect the invasion of Ukraine and expand on a few points in it. You can also follow my blog, In Mosc...

After tackling three of recent developments worth noting - the evolving military command structure of the war, Sergei Kirienko's role and the emergence of the war economy - I tackle a dozen listeners' questions, from how the conflict is affecting Putin's thoughts about his future, to whether monarchy could return... You can also follow my blog, In Moscow's Shadows , and become...

Something of a magazine episode. In the first half I talk about my being banned from Russia ( here 's the Foreign Ministry announcement), Putin at the St Petersburg International Economic Forum, Lavrov interviewed by the BBC (see more here ) and Pertsev's recent article about the elite in Meduza ( here ). In the second half, I tackle a range of questions from listeners, broadly about geo...

In the first part of this slightly rambling episode, I develop on a theme I covered for the Sunday Times ( here ) on whether Moscow will move beyond annexing the Donbas and Lugansk People's Republics and actually seek to grab more territories. And why on earth might anything think this a good idea? One such might be Sergei Kirienko, the first deputy head of the Presidential Administration, wh...

Good news and bad news? Anyway, in the first part I explore what's happening in the Donbas, why it is far too soon to talk of Russia 'winning' and the signs it is digging in for the long haul, and looking for things to call victories. In the second part, I return to the vexed question of a coup against Putin, and why it is so unlikely - unless and until there is a serious crisis tha...

When are Russians really going to start feeling the pressure of the shooting war in Ukraine and the economic/political one with the West? I explain why I think September is when they will really start to feel it. In the second part, I read the coda written for the paperback edition of my  Short History of Russia (out now, and a bargain!) And apologies for some sound issues with background noise, t...

A week before Victory Day,  I consider some different constituencies' notions of victories. For Patrushev and the hard-liners, they could win politically not despite failing in the war, but thanks to it. Nuclear rhetoric may be scary, but it is also a reflection not of victory but failure. The war and sanctions are reshaping the opportunities in the Russian underworld, and this create new win...

For an experimental change in format, this episode is given over to a long conversation with Fabian Burkhardt of IOS-Regensburg, who works on Russian elites, institutions and authoritarian politics. He gives his sense on the state and loyalties of the elites, on the chances of any kind of palace coups, and the degree to which we are all flailing around in the fog of (info)war. As for relevant publ...

Who is General Dvornikov, the new Russian operational commander for the war in Ukraine? Will Prime Minister Mishustin and the other technocrats be able to prevent the militarisation of the Russian economy? Four scenarios for the war. And why it's all about 'enemies' versus 'traitors' for Putin now... The piece on Rusich I mentioned is here , and the Telegraph piece is here...

Another brief and unedited podcast trying to track some of the latest Ukraine-related Russian stories, all distinctly depressing: - the war crimes of Bucha (and the Kirill Shamiev twitter thread I mentioned is here ) - comparing Ivan the Terrible and Vladimir (Putin) the Pretty Terrible Too - the dilemmas for ordinary Russians - and why today's support may not be tomorrow's (the Farida R...

A brief and thoroughly unedited look at four particular issues relating to Ukraine: - the 'new strategy' of concentrating on the Donbas - where's Shoigu? - fear and loathing in the National Guard - a comparison with medieval Lithuania (yes, really) You can also follow my blog, In Moscow's Shadows , and become one of the podcast's supporting Patrons and gain question-asking...

Rather than try and follow the day-by-day, I tackle one of the tricky conundra: not just why the Russians have done so badly, but why the Ukraine war hasn't been fought the way the Russian army is meant to fight. My suspicion is that it is what happens when autocracy meets technocracy, and I explain what I mean. In the second part, I look at the current claims that Colonel General Beseda of t...

What can one say about the unfolding horror in Ukraine. In this podcast I alight on a few specific issues: Putin's nuclear signalling (at least I hope that's all it is), the idiocy of 'No Fly Zones' in this context, Russian morale, and how, if Putin is re-booting the Brezhnev franchise, this could in the long-term let Russia finally complete its reform process. You can also fol...

It may well be, as US/UK leaders are saying, that it is too late, that Putin is determined to wage war on Ukraine, but even as we assiduously wargame the potential routes of advance and attack, we should continue to try and peacegame, too, to apply the same imagination to framing any potential settlement. It would be exquisitely difficult and complex, but right up until the tanks cross the border,...

With Schrodinger's War both imminent and unthinkable there is, to be blunt, only so much that can usefully be said about Russia and Ukraine. I start with a few observations on whether insiders are trying to warn Putin off escalation and what it means if Russia does launch a full-scale invasion (in short, welcome the Brezhnevian stagnation and the rule of the hawks), before turning to some lis...

I spin a post on the Nezygar Telegram channel out to explore the current uncertain state of play over Ukraine, covering topics from the current US claims of what its intelligence says about both Zelenskyy and Putin to whether recognising the Donbas pseudo-states is being floated in Moscow precisely as an escape route.  In the second segment, I tackle some of the requests for predictions sent in by...

One of the short bonuses provided to Patrons over the 2021-22 Christmas and New Year season, released generally a month later. A Christmas tale of villainy and corruption. There are all kinds of rumours about embezzlement and theft at a state bank, but the directors swear blind that all is fine. The chief teller is clearly rich beyond his means, and his wife is never seen but that she is dripping...

One of the short bonuses provided to Patrons over the 2021-22 Christmas and New Year season, released generally a month later. Who is Lt. Gen. Dmitry Mironov? It may prove worth knowing about this bodyguard-turned-governor-turned-presidential-aide, in effect Putin's eyes and ears over the security forces, and now you can spend just 13 minutes and feel that you do! How being a bodyguard and an...

After the Blinken-Lavrov talks, a brief one-segment podcast with a few thoughts on the current state of the dialogue, the risks of conflict, and the chances that Moscow will formally recognise the Donbas and Lugansk 'Peoples' Republics.' You can also follow my blog, In Moscow's Shadows , and become one of the podcast's supporting Patrons and gain question-asking rights and...

One of the short bonuses provided to Patrons over the 2021-22 Christmas and New Year season, released later: usually a month, in this case a fortnight, as I think it's worth hearing early in the year! I freely admit business is not my area of expertise, so who better to give a quick assessment of what may await in 2022 than Ben Aris, Editor-in-Chief of bne Intellinews ( https://www.intellinew...

A Russian-led force deploying into Kazakhstan has inevitably had some people talking invasion, some stabilisation. I make no claims to being a Kazakhstan expert and look forward to people who are having the opportunity to work out if this was a coup by President Tokaev against his patron and master Nazarbaev or something else. So instead, I look at the crisis through the Russian lens: why did the...

To kick off the year, rather than making some grand predictions about Russia, instead I speculate as to what 2022 may offer Putin, Patrushev, Mishustin, Shoigu, Kirienko and Kadyrov. So much will depend on one key decision, whether the system will legitimate itself 'socially' or as a 'fortress.' The twitter thread on the VTsIOM poll I mentioned is here , and the Riddle 'Ke...

A short, one-segment piece on Russia's proposed new treaties and how, despite what their deputy foreign minister may say, we have to treat them as the basis for some kind of negotiation, and see what comes of it. So long, that is, that we also step up our deterrence, to ensure Moscow has good reason to talk. You can also follow my blog, In Moscow's Shadows , and become one of the podcast...

Quite what is Russia's game plan over Ukraine? It seems hard to explain through common sense, so I conduct a thought experiment: what would Putin have to be thinking to believe that a war, with all the consequent and catastrophic political and economic costs, might make sense? In the second part, I look at some developments in the Russian underworld that suggest that a long nightmare - the pr...