In Moscow's Shadows

The main reasons for the annual ritual of Putin's Direct Line phone-in encounter with the Russian people is to allow him to present himself as the caring father of the nation, savvy chief executive and watchful tsar. However, there is also a less-understood dimension: how the Kremlin uses it to gauge the mood of the masses. If it leads to genuine concerns being addressed, even in the name of...

The Geneva Summit: frankly, as good as one could expect, with Biden offering a shrewd carrot and stick - Russia can feel itself more like a great power, if it plays more by the rules. No step-change breakthrough, but a decent start. Worse news about the spread of COVID-19 in Russia, and again Putin and the government has gone AWOL, forcing Moscow mayor Sobyanin to take the lead. Why does this happ...

A bit of a grab-bag: what to make of the continuing crackdown in Russia, is there scope to undermine the cohesion of the security forces in Belarus, should HMS Defender be heading into the Black Sea, and, in the second half, thoughts about the upcoming Geneva Summit between Biden and Putin. The article by Josh Huminski I mention is here . You can also follow my blog, In Moscow's Shadows , and...

A spur-of-the-moment, off-the-top-of-my-head take on what's going (wr)on(g) in Belarus: the Russian connection or rather the absence of any evidence of one, Lukashenko's motivations, and above all what can be done. We need a strategy, a sense of what we want, and above all to realise that we cannot force change on Belarus but should rather help the Belarusian people generate it. The arti...

Is the Russian Orthodox Church a spiritual community, a political institution, or a business empire? The truth of the matter is that it has become all three, and I toy with the idea that we should think of it as FGUP RosBog, Federal State Unitary Enterprise 'Russian God'... In the second half, I note that most of Russia's security chiefs are in their late 60s. Are they going to be a...

Today (9 May) is Victory Day, and the sad truth is that this also inevitably means claims and counter claims of 'memory wars' over the Great Patriotic War. So what can and should we do about this? And in the second part, a little historical vignette: how was the Kremlin fortress protected during WW2? The answer is by hiding it in plain sight. The Henry Jackson Society event convened by D...

A mysterious glitch silenced the first, Navalny-related part of this podcast. This has now been fixed, and the full, uncensored version is now up - should now be up.   From why the Kremlin fears Navalny to what Patrushev believes and whether Hungary is a Russian proxy, I reply to a selection of patron's questions. The articles I mentioned are my take on 'post-post-modern authoritarianism...

A personal and unpolished snap response to the news that the Czech government is expelling 18 Russian diplomat-spies after an investigation linked the GRU's Unit 29155 - and the infamous 'Petrov and Boshirov' of Salisbury novichok fame - with the explosion at an arms depot in 2014 that killed two. And I touch on how this may help Prague adopt more of a leadership role in Central Eur...

Why is there this talk of Russia as a 'declining power' - and is it true? I'd suggest we ought to use the term with caution, not least as we are all declining... The Saradzhan and Abdullaev piece I mentioned is here . In the second part, I take a silly survey that claimed to find that Putin is Russia's most handsome man and combine it with criminal slang and plastic pop music t...

Rumours that Zhirinovsky is going to step down from leadership of the Liberal Democratic Party look more credible these days, and oligarch Oleg Deripaska is even being mooted as a successor. So, it's time for a bit of an exploration of the LDPR, what it stands for, what role it plays, and where it might go. After the break, I take a quick look at a story in Znak on police procurement ( here )...

Who are the main 'siloviki' or 'men of force,' the heads of Russia's security structures? In response to a request from a patron, I give a run-through of the people and their prospects. Relevant other IMS episodes I mention are on Shoigu ( here ), Naryshkin ( here ) and Patrushev ( here ). And then after the break, I take a quick look at Biden's "killer" com...

All the Ms. First of all, as a counter to the understandable pessimism about Russia at the moment, I look at some of the aspects of Moscow that still make me marvel, and consider how they offer signs of long-term (which really means post-Putin) hope for Russia as a whole. And then after the break, we have mob murder, as the newly-opened case of the 2009 murder of old-school gangster Vyacheslav &ap...

A short. 'one act' special: with the news (still unconfirmed) that Navalny is being sent to IK-2 penal colony in Vladimir region, I look at the prison, and what that may mean for him. You can also follow my blog, In Moscow's Shadows , and become one of the podcast's supporting Patrons and gain question-asking rights and access to exclusive extra materials right here .  Support...

With Navalny in prison, the opposition mobilising, and the state cracking down, what will happen next? The only honest answer anyone can give is "no idea." So instead of trying to make predictions, I instead offer up a variety of scenarios, to illustrate the range of possibilities and also highlight some specific issues we need to bear in mind. In the second part, I build off a piece In...

It's a deliberately provocative title, I know, but how might the 'Navalny effect' impact late Putinism? A swing towards blunt and uncompromising authoritarianism? A genuine 'reform that you may preserve' conservative reformulation? The truth is likely to be something between the two, but it is worth considering that even if Navalny is not successful in bringing genuine dem...

Yesterday saw major protests all across Russia, a genuine success for Team Navalny. But now what? My rough and uncurated first thoughts... You can also follow my blog, In Moscow's Shadows , and become one of the podcast's supporting Patrons and gain question-asking rights and access to exclusive extra materials right here .  Support the show

Another short 'cellcast', though given its timeliness, going public straightaway. In this cellcast, recorded on 18 January 2021, I take a very speculative, un-thought-through look at the Kremlin's options for dealing with Navalny now he is once again in its hands as of last night... You can also follow my blog, In Moscow's Shadows , and become one of the podcast's supporti...

The FSO, the Federal Protection Service (or Federal Guard Service) is more that just Putin's dark-suited bodyguards, or the goose-stepping soldiers at the Eternal Flame. In my latest exploration of Russia's security community, I look at these 'watchers of the watchers' who even do their own opinion polling. (The Meduza article I reference is here .) In the second part, I look a...

So Russia has a new laser system, called Peresvet. Pere-who? This gets me talking, for the last of the Twelve Days of Shadowy Christmas cellcasts, about the battle of Kulikovo in 1380 - and why it matters in 2021. (It is, by the way, a bit of a fascination for me, and if you're interested you can find more about it in my book Kulikovo 1380: the battle that made Russia ) Support the show

How did Defence Minister Shoigu make it from graduating from Krasnoyarsk Poly as a construction engineer to being discussed as a potential future president? In this third cellcast of the 2020-21 Twelve Days of Shadowy Christmas, I give my quick take. You can also follow my blog, In Moscow's Shadows , and become one of the podcast's supporting Patrons and gain question-asking rights and a...

How might a scandal from 2019 affect who runs the FSB in 2021? And should we consider levels of elite embezzlement a good index of their confidence? In this second cellcast of the 2020-21 Twelve Days of Shadowy Christmas, I take a look at the agency's future. One erratum, by the way, that serves me right for trying to convert big numbers on the fly: the 120 billion rubles I mention at one poi...

Today in 1979, Afghanistan was waking up under Soviet domination. In this first cellcast of the 2020-21 Twelve Days of Shadowy Christmas, I pull out three aspects of that conflict of relevance today. The Levada poll I mention on Navalny, by the way, is here . And if anyone is interested in my PhD on the impact of the war, the book-of-the-thesis is Afghanistan: the Soviet Union's last war (199...

More on the Navalny case, the story that keeps unfolding, following the publication of his conversation with one of his would-be killers, and a rumination on whether there will be implications for the FSB and its approach. Then, as a reminder that Russia also has competent spooks, I turn to the recently-revealed and massive hack of largely US systems. Is this really a 'cyberattack,' as s...

An impressively detailed investigation by Bellingcat and The Insider meticulously details the Russian Federal Security Service operation against Alexei Navalny, so here is a short podcast episode devoted to this case and some implications. The report is available here , and Navalny's video on it here . My hot take in the Moscow Times is here , any my October piece about General Smirnov is her...

Is there life in the Communist Party, and any chance of it again becoming an opposition party, maybe even in some kind of entente with Alexei Navalny? My thoughts. And in the second part, I highlight three quirky stories that caught my eye, on presidential nicknames, on misleading ratings, and on life after high politics. You can also follow my blog, In Moscow's Shadows , and become one of th...