In Moscow's Shadows

News that gas corporation Gazprom appears to be sponsoring a mercenary unit in Ukraine prompts me to explore the complex ecosystem of Russian private military companies and mercenaries. Not so much the onset of a new era of warlordism, I see it as a reflection of Putin's adhocratic mobilisation state. In the second half, I provide a guide to some of the varies organisations in question, from...

Even loyalists seem in some cases to be taking a step back, not for a moment standing against the Kremlin but less able or willing to be so vocal and visible supporting it. I look at four such figures - Alexander Bortnikov, director of the FSB, Dmitry Kiselev, general director of Russia Today, Alexander Bastrykin, head of the Investigatory Committee, and Alexei Dyumin, governor of Tula - and wonde...

What can we learn from the massive trove of US secret documents recently and incautiously leaked? And what are the signs that Russia really is digging in, not for a 'Forever War,' but certainly a lengthy one? The Moskovskii Komsomolets article I mention is here . You can also follow my blog, In Moscow's Shadows , and become one of the podcast's supporting Patrons and gain quest...

Something for everyone? What we may conclude from the murder of milblogger 'Vladlen Tatarsky', thoughts on the hostage-taking of journalist Evan Gershkovich, the madness of Nikolai Patrushev and a new report on guns in Ukraine. The Spectator piece I mention is here (paywalled), Patrushev's latest interview is here , the report 'On U.S. Objectives With Respect to the USSR To Cou...

Spinning off from a recent piece for the Spectator , I look at Dmitri Medvedev's decline and fall, from technocratic liberal hope to peddler of toxic anti-Western vitriol, and what this tells us about late Putinism: the hawkish turn, chameleonic politics, the need for scarecrows and the downside of Putin's loyalty. The Spectator piece is here You can also follow my blog, In Moscow's...

Isn't it time to scrap the term 'oligarch'? In Russia - as perhaps, not in Ukraine - the time when rich people able to assert power because of their wealth (as opposed to getting wealthy because of their power) seems long gone. And a justice vs pragmatism question: will the International Criminal Court's decision to issue an arrest warrant against Putin on war crimes charges, h...

Why did Budapest 2023 remind me of Moscow 2007? Are Hungary or China 'pro-Russia'? What can we read into pro-Ukrainian neo-Nazi incursions into Russia and Kadyrov's claims that he wants to set up a mercenary company? And speaking of which, what on earth is PMC Ryodan? You can also follow my blog, In Moscow's Shadows , and become one of the podcast's supporting Patrons and...

Putin has finally set a date for his annual address to the Federal Assembly, 21 February. He will likely try to tread the balance between scaring and reassuring his audience, but it takes place at a time when there is evidence of the security state digging in for the long haul, not least with a reshuffle at the Security Council Secretariat. In the second half, I talk about Russian scifi, especiall...

The apparent hit on a Russian rightist, propagandist, and self-styled "swindler and  mercenary" raises a range of questions about coordination in the Russian forces, the role of Evgeny Prigozhin and Russia's slide back towards the 'wild 90s.' Still, that's a better prospect than Putin's repeated invocation of the 1940s, most recently at the 80th anniversary of th...

What does it mean that Western-designed tanks will now be supplied to Ukraine, and what - if any - potential responses does Putin have? At the very least, it will be used to hammer home the new notion of the 'New Patriotic War,' in an attempt to provide a rationalisation for totalitarianism. However, any unity imposed is just superficial - as the recent spat between Igor 'Strelkov&a...

So what might it mean for Chief of the General Staff Gerasimov to be made the new overall commander of Russian operations in Ukraine? I suspect Putin is impatient for some kind of victory - and if Gerasimov absolutely has to provide it, then he will need to find some form of escalation. Details of the Chelsea Society event on 16 January I mentioned are here , and the Lewes Speakers Festival event...

A collection of topics: Putin's rather bellicose New Year Address and what to make of it, the limits of Russian politics, what to make of Medvedev's and Prigozhin's bizarre statements, and some good news, especially for those who consider Peruvian shaman to be soothsayers... The Russian cyber report I mentioned is here , Prigozhin's latest broadside is here , and news of the Pe...

Is Putin contemplating fleeing to Venezuela? Is Medvedev more powerful than Patrushev? Does it make sense to decolonise Russia? Is a maverick spook spilling the beans on Putin's personal life? As a lack of hard information on inner Kremlin politics generates rumours and assumptions to fill the data vacuum, I ponder our analytic biases. The survey of 100 top politicians is here . You can also...

What broader lessons about the changing nature of war, peace and power can we draw from the Russo-Ukrainian conflict? A more conceptual and rambling episode than usual... The Meduza article on FSO polling I mentioned is here . You can also follow my blog, In Moscow's Shadows , and become one of the podcast's supporting Patrons and gain question-asking rights and access to exclusive extra...

My own contribution to the current discussion about how Putin tries to use and abuse history, and how he doesn't even get Russian history right. And, after the break, the costs of the war to Russia and the all-too-often overlooked (not least by Putin) regional dimension. You can also follow my blog, In Moscow's Shadows , and become one of the podcast's supporting Patrons and gain qu...

A fresh batch of Patrons' questions, clustered around Putin, his influences (no, Ivan Ilyin is not his guru) and decision-making; and then in the second half, how are the effects of invasion and sanctions reshaping Russian organised crime? You can also follow my blog, In Moscow's Shadows , and become one of the podcast's supporting Patrons and gain question-asking rights and access...

In the first part of the podcast, I address the first batch of questions put to me by my Patrons, including Prigozhin's authority and whether Putin really believes some of the increasingly bizarre nonsense that is being spouted by his officials. In the second part, I explore whether Russia might be tempted to follow North Korea in establishing a 'ministry of organised crime.' Oh, an...

In the first segment, I touch on some of the latest news stories: Ukraine's drone attack on Sevastopol and the ending of the grain deal; will Russian withdraw from Kherson; and what Russians think. In the second half, I pivot to exploring the complex intelligence relationship between Russia and China and why, whatever the talk of a 'friendship without limits,' at least in the secret...

I'm back after a month of travels, and what a month it's been. In this longer-than-usual catch-up episode, I look at its main developments, including annexations, mobilisation, martial law and political machinations. And how Sergei Kirienko admitted that this was not a popular war... You can also follow my blog, In Moscow's Shadows , and become one of the podcast's supporting P...

Military analysts often talk about the way forces seek to 'impose dilemmas' in their enemy on the battlefield. The extraordinary Ukrainian advance from Kharkiv is imposing a series of dilemmas both military and, more importantly, political on Putin. And, faced with a choice of difficult options, none of which look especially palatable, he is doing what he usually does: dodge the hard dec...

It's Labo(u)r Day here in DC, so I look at the - pretty poor - state of organised labour in Russia, but also the hints that coming economic pressures could help encourage some solidarity and lateral connections, key to effective civil society. My post 'Mikroraion Life' in my Travels in Deepest Muscovy blog  on life in Kotel'niki  is here . You can also follow my blog, In Moscow...

A short, one-segment piece in which I consider one of the less widely-discussed aspects of Gorbachev's legacy (and quite why he sat so uncomfortably for the present regime): that he stood for hope (however naive or badly-executed sometimes) rather than the victimhood at the heart of Putin's message. My snap appreciation of Gorbachev is here , and Leon Aron's obit is here . You can a...

How far is the Kremlin grappling with the problem of power and relevance: it has made promises, it issues decree, but is it really able to achieve any more at home than in the stalemate in Ukraine? Does Putin's recent decree on expanding the military mean more than just more Potemkin politics? And as a result, are more and more elements of Russian society seeing the regime as incapable, creat...

Continuing from last episode, in which I postulate that Russia is now in the grip of 'Putinism-Patrushevism,' I look at what this has meant for Defence Minister Shoigu - and how his return to high-profile public politics suggest he has been forced to adapt to the new era of constant conflict. How can this help illuminate what the ingredients of power in late Putinism may be? You can also...

I play around with the concept of Putinism-Patrushevism, that while Putin's broad ambitions may be pretty consistent over time, quite how they are understood and meant to be achieved varies over time depending on who has most influence with him - and now, sadly, it's Nikolai Patrushev, leading to the current state of the country. (I float this idea in this Sunday Times piece). The earlie...