In Moscow's Shadows

My own contribution to the current discussion about how Putin tries to use and abuse history, and how he doesn't even get Russian history right. And, after the break, the costs of the war to Russia and the all-too-often overlooked (not least by Putin) regional dimension. You can also follow my blog, In Moscow's Shadows , and become one of the podcast's supporting Patrons and gain qu...

A fresh batch of Patrons' questions, clustered around Putin, his influences (no, Ivan Ilyin is not his guru) and decision-making; and then in the second half, how are the effects of invasion and sanctions reshaping Russian organised crime? You can also follow my blog, In Moscow's Shadows , and become one of the podcast's supporting Patrons and gain question-asking rights and access...

In the first part of the podcast, I address the first batch of questions put to me by my Patrons, including Prigozhin's authority and whether Putin really believes some of the increasingly bizarre nonsense that is being spouted by his officials. In the second part, I explore whether Russia might be tempted to follow North Korea in establishing a 'ministry of organised crime.' Oh, an...

In the first segment, I touch on some of the latest news stories: Ukraine's drone attack on Sevastopol and the ending of the grain deal; will Russian withdraw from Kherson; and what Russians think. In the second half, I pivot to exploring the complex intelligence relationship between Russia and China and why, whatever the talk of a 'friendship without limits,' at least in the secret...

I'm back after a month of travels, and what a month it's been. In this longer-than-usual catch-up episode, I look at its main developments, including annexations, mobilisation, martial law and political machinations. And how Sergei Kirienko admitted that this was not a popular war... You can also follow my blog, In Moscow's Shadows , and become one of the podcast's supporting P...

Military analysts often talk about the way forces seek to 'impose dilemmas' in their enemy on the battlefield. The extraordinary Ukrainian advance from Kharkiv is imposing a series of dilemmas both military and, more importantly, political on Putin. And, faced with a choice of difficult options, none of which look especially palatable, he is doing what he usually does: dodge the hard dec...

It's Labo(u)r Day here in DC, so I look at the - pretty poor - state of organised labour in Russia, but also the hints that coming economic pressures could help encourage some solidarity and lateral connections, key to effective civil society. My post 'Mikroraion Life' in my Travels in Deepest Muscovy blog  on life in Kotel'niki  is here . You can also follow my blog, In Moscow...

A short, one-segment piece in which I consider one of the less widely-discussed aspects of Gorbachev's legacy (and quite why he sat so uncomfortably for the present regime): that he stood for hope (however naive or badly-executed sometimes) rather than the victimhood at the heart of Putin's message. My snap appreciation of Gorbachev is here , and Leon Aron's obit is here . You can a...

How far is the Kremlin grappling with the problem of power and relevance: it has made promises, it issues decree, but is it really able to achieve any more at home than in the stalemate in Ukraine? Does Putin's recent decree on expanding the military mean more than just more Potemkin politics? And as a result, are more and more elements of Russian society seeing the regime as incapable, creat...

Continuing from last episode, in which I postulate that Russia is now in the grip of 'Putinism-Patrushevism,' I look at what this has meant for Defence Minister Shoigu - and how his return to high-profile public politics suggest he has been forced to adapt to the new era of constant conflict. How can this help illuminate what the ingredients of power in late Putinism may be? You can also...

I play around with the concept of Putinism-Patrushevism, that while Putin's broad ambitions may be pretty consistent over time, quite how they are understood and meant to be achieved varies over time depending on who has most influence with him - and now, sadly, it's Nikolai Patrushev, leading to the current state of the country. (I float this idea in this Sunday Times piece). The earlie...

The final batch of patrons' and listeners' questions answered - sometimes better than others - on everything from Ekaterina Schulmann's "reverse cargo cult" thesis to the flaws of liberal politics, Naryshkin's fumbles to naval dilemmas in the Ukraine war. You can also follow my blog, In Moscow's Shadows , and become one of the podcast's supporting Patrons an...

I look at the career of Igor Girkin, better known as Strelkov, the ultra-nationalist who has turned against Putin - but gets away with it. What does it tell us about Russian politics? In the second half, I read the coda added to later editions of my book 'We Need To Talk About Putin' to reflect the invasion of Ukraine and expand on a few points in it. You can also follow my blog, In Mosc...

After tackling three of recent developments worth noting - the evolving military command structure of the war, Sergei Kirienko's role and the emergence of the war economy - I tackle a dozen listeners' questions, from how the conflict is affecting Putin's thoughts about his future, to whether monarchy could return... You can also follow my blog, In Moscow's Shadows , and become...

Something of a magazine episode. In the first half I talk about my being banned from Russia ( here 's the Foreign Ministry announcement), Putin at the St Petersburg International Economic Forum, Lavrov interviewed by the BBC (see more here ) and Pertsev's recent article about the elite in Meduza ( here ). In the second half, I tackle a range of questions from listeners, broadly about geo...

In the first part of this slightly rambling episode, I develop on a theme I covered for the Sunday Times ( here ) on whether Moscow will move beyond annexing the Donbas and Lugansk People's Republics and actually seek to grab more territories. And why on earth might anything think this a good idea? One such might be Sergei Kirienko, the first deputy head of the Presidential Administration, wh...

Good news and bad news? Anyway, in the first part I explore what's happening in the Donbas, why it is far too soon to talk of Russia 'winning' and the signs it is digging in for the long haul, and looking for things to call victories. In the second part, I return to the vexed question of a coup against Putin, and why it is so unlikely - unless and until there is a serious crisis tha...

When are Russians really going to start feeling the pressure of the shooting war in Ukraine and the economic/political one with the West? I explain why I think September is when they will really start to feel it. In the second part, I read the coda written for the paperback edition of my  Short History of Russia (out now, and a bargain!) And apologies for some sound issues with background noise, t...

A week before Victory Day,  I consider some different constituencies' notions of victories. For Patrushev and the hard-liners, they could win politically not despite failing in the war, but thanks to it. Nuclear rhetoric may be scary, but it is also a reflection not of victory but failure. The war and sanctions are reshaping the opportunities in the Russian underworld, and this create new win...

For an experimental change in format, this episode is given over to a long conversation with Fabian Burkhardt of IOS-Regensburg, who works on Russian elites, institutions and authoritarian politics. He gives his sense on the state and loyalties of the elites, on the chances of any kind of palace coups, and the degree to which we are all flailing around in the fog of (info)war. As for relevant publ...

Who is General Dvornikov, the new Russian operational commander for the war in Ukraine? Will Prime Minister Mishustin and the other technocrats be able to prevent the militarisation of the Russian economy? Four scenarios for the war. And why it's all about 'enemies' versus 'traitors' for Putin now... The piece on Rusich I mentioned is here , and the Telegraph piece is here...

Another brief and unedited podcast trying to track some of the latest Ukraine-related Russian stories, all distinctly depressing: - the war crimes of Bucha (and the Kirill Shamiev twitter thread I mentioned is here ) - comparing Ivan the Terrible and Vladimir (Putin) the Pretty Terrible Too - the dilemmas for ordinary Russians - and why today's support may not be tomorrow's (the Farida R...

A brief and thoroughly unedited look at four particular issues relating to Ukraine: - the 'new strategy' of concentrating on the Donbas - where's Shoigu? - fear and loathing in the National Guard - a comparison with medieval Lithuania (yes, really) You can also follow my blog, In Moscow's Shadows , and become one of the podcast's supporting Patrons and gain question-asking...

Rather than try and follow the day-by-day, I tackle one of the tricky conundra: not just why the Russians have done so badly, but why the Ukraine war hasn't been fought the way the Russian army is meant to fight. My suspicion is that it is what happens when autocracy meets technocracy, and I explain what I mean. In the second part, I look at the current claims that Colonel General Beseda of t...

What can one say about the unfolding horror in Ukraine. In this podcast I alight on a few specific issues: Putin's nuclear signalling (at least I hope that's all it is), the idiocy of 'No Fly Zones' in this context, Russian morale, and how, if Putin is re-booting the Brezhnev franchise, this could in the long-term let Russia finally complete its reform process. You can also fol...