Hrkn to .. The Financial Outlook for Personal Investors

Victoria Scholar of Interactive Investor tells Simon Rose how the markets have reacted to the new Chancellor and his fiscal strategy. She discusses the resilience of the bond markets now the Bank of England's emergency intervention has ended – for the time being at least. And she explains how she feels that a recession for the UK is now an inevitability. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit pod...

Russ Mould of A J Bell looks at the housebuilding sector and wonders if, in a tidal wave of bearishness, this is an opportunity for contrarian investors. He suggests bond yield proxies such as REITs are worth looking at. There are many types and, though offices may not fill again, the likes of supermarkets and online warehouses won't vanish. What we're seeing in the markets, he says, is the result...

Victoria Scholar of Interactive Investor looks at the rally in the oil price in the wake of Opec+ planning to cut oil output by 2 million barrels a day. While this may mean more misery for the motorist, it could benefit oil companies, despite Shell slumping after its pre-earnings announcement. But with many countries teetering on the edge of recession, could the higher oil price depress economies...

With Ben van Beurden stepping down as CEO of Shell, Russ Mould of A J Bell looks at the tenure of senior chief executives. With 9 years at the helm, he's the 24th-longest serving FTSE100 boss, the average currently being 6 years. Perhaps it was just a good time to leave. Russ also looks at the growing list of companies showing signs of demand ebbing or cost pressures building – or both. Learn more...

Russ Mould of A J Bell is slightly puzzled by some of the market reaction to the UK mini-budget, given how little debt, relatively speaking, is being added to the whole, though realising how poorly it was presenting. He thinks investors should get rid of anything causing discomfort in their portfolios as that discomfort could get much greater. He offers advice on the sort of stocks investors shoul...

Victoria Scholar of Interactive Investor discusses with Simon Rose the Fed's hiking of interest rates by 75 basis points, with indications they have further to go. The move strengthened the dollar still further. In the UK, the Bank of England opted for a 50 basis point rise, rather than 75 (the highest level since 2008), with the MPC split over the decision. With the pound continuing to weaken, sh...

Russ Mould of A J Bell says that, for the moment, markets are dancing to the central banks' tune, with the Fed talking tough and the Bank of England and European Central Bank following in their wake. He also explains why investors in it for the long term should not try to second-guess what politicians are going to do. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Victoria Scholar of Interactive Investor tells Simon Rose why the Jackson Hole central bank symposium in Wyoming is so important this year and what we might expect Fed Chair Jay Powell to say. With the severity of inflation a major driver of markets, we can expect them to be jittery for some time. In the UK, the new price cap will have a big effect on the CPI numbers. Learn more about your ad choi...

Danni Hewson of A J Bell discusses the latest inflation numbers with Simon Rose (with reference to her early record collection) and what might yet happen with interest rates. While many retailers are under pressure, she points out that life is different for those at the luxury end of the market. She discusses the bid, finally, for Ted Baker and what is probably the start of a massive bidding war f...

Victoria Scholar of Interactive Investor explains why markets viewed the lastest US inflation numbers – softening to 8.5% – so positively. She discusses what might be expected from the UK's GDP figures. She explains why the current political uncertainty in the UK – with the two very different approaches espoused by the candidates – is making the country a difficult place to invest, suggesting that...

Laith Khalaf of A J Bell explains why there was muted market reaction to the Bank of England's MPC increasing interest rates to 1.75%, the biggest increase in 27 years. With MPC members voting 8-1 in favour of the increase, Laith thought the Bank's forecast of 13% CPI inflation this winter showed them to be yet again behind the curve. If Liz Truss wins the Conservative Party leadership contest, La...

Victoria Scholar of Interactive Investor talks to Simon Rose about why markets have been so buoyant despite aggressive monetary tightening from the US Federal Reserve. UK markets are lagging ahead of next week's MPC decision but earnings from commodity companies like Shell and Centrica were buoyant. Not so the reaction to results from either Barclays Bank or challenger Metro. Drinks giant Diagio i...

Russ Mould of A J Bell talks to Simon Rose about the ECB rate hike, bigger than expected in an effort to tackle inflation. He points out that there are 19 different inflation rates to consider and wonders how one interest rate can satisfy the requirements of so many countries. Are they, and other central banks, increasing rates into a possible recession? He also looks at the cost-of-living indicat...

Victoria Scholar of Interactive Investor talks to Simon Rose about the current state of the housing market in the light of Barratt Developments' earnings. While the RICS show that price rises are slowing, the imbalance of housing supply and demand may provide support while UK rents have hit a record high. The latest GDP numbers were stronger than expected while retail sales continue to suffer; tho...

Russ Mould of A J Bell discusses with Simon Rose how markets have reacted to the resignation of Boris Johnson as PM, reflecting that no PLC board could behave as some politicians have done. He has looked at what difference it makes to shares when the Prime Minister is changed mid-term, finding that it makes little difference in the short term. Over a longer period, the economy is likely to have mo...

Myron Jobson of Interactive Investor discusses ESG or ethical investing funds with Simon Rose. He explains that, because green-orientated companies tend to be relatively new, they have suffered from the general rotation from growth to value stocks. For obvious reasons, they are underweight in the energy and defence sectors which have done well of late. He points out, though, that ESG funds have ou...

With even commodities now being dragged down by recession worries and fears of demand destruction, Russ Mould of A J Bell looks at the three phases of bear markets. He believes we might be about to enter the second phase but that we are still some way off the worst. Investors should concentrate on the preservation of capital, avoiding undue risk and perhaps shedding investments they aren't too con...

Victoria Scholar of Interactive Investor looks at the latest from the ECB, hinting that it will increase rates by 25 basis points in July and ending its asset purchase programme. With the price of filling a tank now hitting £100, she discusses what it means not just for households but also businesses. Which can pass on rising costs? As well as oil and commodity companies, she suggests that it coul...

Russ Mould of A J Bell discusses those central bankers, past and present, admitting their mistakes on inflation and demonstrating that they're as fallible as any of us. He points out that with markets rising for years, investors were lulled into a false sense of security. He thinks investors should now be concentrating on valuation of shares. With the bid for Countrywide, he thinks it could be wor...

Victoria Scholar of Interactive Investor discusses with Simon Rose Chancellor Rishi Sunak's measures to alleviate the effects of inflation on the more vulnerable members of the public. She comments on the U-turn over the oil producers' windfall tax; an Interactive Investor poll found people were concerned, not just about their own investments, but what it might mean for their pensions. The markets...

Russ Mould of A J Bell talks to Simon Rose about representatives of the US Federal Reserve talking up interest rates, while big American retailers like Walmart and Target have demonstrated the problems they are already facing as inflation rises. So far they don't seem to be passing on all the price rises they face, while stock appears to be piling up. For Russ, the question now is what central ban...

Victoria Scholar of Interactive Investor talks to Simon Rose about the latest UK GDP figures and the pound hitting a 2-year low. She discusses the sell-off in tech stocks around the world and the switch to value shares and those which provide decent dividend yields. She points out that Apple has lost its crown as the world's most valuable company to Saudi Aramco and takes a brief look at the plung...

Russ Mould of A J Bell looks at the Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee decision to raise interest rates to 1% with a statement dampening some expectations for future sharp rises. He asks if the MPC (and the Fed) have painted themselves into a corner and wonders whether more debt should have been the answer to a debt crisis. Indeed, can 9 people in a room, however smart and well-intentione...

Victoria Scholar of Interactive Investor talks to Simon Rose about the latest US GDP numbers (-1.4% in the first quarter) and asks if the US is heading for a recession. She discusses the surge in Meta shares after its earnings topped estimates. Here banks Standard Chartered and Barclays both jumped after their latest numbers. And Unilever has announced another jump in its prices. Will it be able t...

Russ Mould of A J Bell tells Simon Rose of 5 free indicators that any investor can follow quickly and easily to help decide what is coming next. He explains the importance of the oil price, the Dow Transportation Index, the health of small companies, the copper price and the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index. Russ's conclusion: stagflation looks the likeliest outcome and real assets and gold could...