Hrkn to .. The Financial Outlook for Personal Investors

Victoria Scholar of Interactive Investor explains why the US Fed raised rates for the 10th time in 14 months to a 16-year-high, despite the turmoil in the American banking sector. It makes it all the more likely that the MPC will follow suit. Despite the American move, sterling is at an 11-month high against the dollar. She also looks at results from BP and Shell and discusses the major slide in o...

Russ Mould of A J Bell looks at the importance of the American tech stocks, once the FANGs and now MAANAM. All suffered steep price falls last year but, of the $2.4tn rebound in the S&P 500, $1.6tn has come from these six. Russ points out that the better their share prices do, the less downside protection there is. Inflation and interest rates are also a consideration to their valuation. But with...

Victoria Scholar of Interactive Investor summarises the latest UK inflation and employment statistics. In the light of general inflation remaining above 10% and with the likes of food and drink considerably higher than that, what do economists think will happen with interest rates? Is a hike more likely now? Will the economy fall into a recession this year? And will the UK stock market's tear come...

Russ Mould of A J Bell looks at gold, which recently went above $2,000 an ounce again. He asks how the metal, which produces no income, can be valued. Believing it is NOT an inflation hedge, he does think it can be a hedge against loss of faith in central bankers. Despite a round of mergers and acquisitions in the industry, while gold has risen 30% since 2020, gold shares, out of fashion, are only...

Russ Mould of A J Bell finds it curious that central bankers are not looking in the mirror, but blaming social media and older people for recent problems, given that an excess of cheap money is at the root of so much that has gone wong. He believes there will still be reckonings to come in some areas and that the chances of a recession in the US have increased. UK investors, though, should concent...

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Russ Mould of A JBell thinks Jeremy Hunt delivering the Budget did his best with a weak hand. Essentially, there is no money when the national interest bill is £100bn. Market nervousness about contagion from SVB and Credit Suisse Russ puts down to money being cheap for far too long. It has meant that too many people have done risky, silly things. Nervous investors should remember the basics, stick...

Russ Mould of A J Bell looks at the results of Persimmon, the latest company offering a paper yield higher than 10% that turned out to be illusory. That the share price didn't fall further on terrible results shows that the market was ahead of the game. Russ looks at the sector as a whole. Some builders are trading at a discount to book value and sentiment will turn at some stage. But housebuilder...

Victoria Scholar of Interactive Investor explains why supermarkets are rationing some fruit and vegetables. She also looks at results from Rolls-Royce, the first under its new CEO, as well as from BAE Systems (increasing its dividend), Heathrow Airport, where business is picking up less quickly than hoped for, advertising giant WPP and miner Rio Tino, which has slashed its dividend. Learn more abo...

Russ Mould of A J Bell takes a look at the banking sector. He points out that there are many similarities in the results from Barclays and Standard Chartered, with both showing the highest profits and dividends for some time. However, the market has reacted very differently, with Barclays punished and Standard boosted. He also discusses why banks might be being criticised by MPs and others for sti...

Victoria Scholar of Interactive Investor tells Simon Rose why, despite the general air of doom and gloom in the UK, the FTSE 100 index has been hitting record highs recently. She discusses recent results from Unilever, Shell & BP and points out the research suggesting that the UK might just manage to avoid a recession this year. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Russ Mould of A J Bell looks at the MPC's decision to increase rates to 4%, the highest since 2008. Is it doing the right thing? He has crunched the numbers to reveal that the All Share has risen 11.5% during Sunak's 100 days as PM, second only to the rise when Edward Heath entered Number Ten (15.4%) and slightly ahead of Tony Blair (10.1%). Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.c...

Victoria Scholar of Interactive Investor updates Simon Rose on the latest news from the tech sector. Tesla's shares jumped on strong earnings, Microsoft had mixed results and Netflix performed better than expected. She discusses the figures and explains that, although 2022's woes for tech shares may have been overdone, investors in the sector in 2023 are still likely to be in for a bumpy ride. Lea...

Simon Rose takes a well-earned break this week, so we bring you his interview with Lord Lee, author of 'How to Make a Million Slowly', as recorded nearly six years ago. At that time, 1 February 2017, it had been an intriguing start to the year for investors with sterling hitting new lows, driving the stockmarket to a record high. Lord Lee cautioned that forecasting the future direction of markets...

Richard Hunter of Interactive Investor discusses how the festive season went for retailers with Simon Rose. Despite the gloomy picture of consumers reigning in spending, the picture emerging from the high street over the most important period of the year is much more positive, with the likes of Next, Sainsbury's, Marks and particularly JD Sports, doing well. What happens in the next few weeks on t...

Russ Mould of A J Bell tells Simon Rose of the 5 key trends he thinks investors should keep an eye on in 2023. The inverted yield curve in the US could indicate a recession. 2-year government bonds often lead monetary policy; will central banks stay tough? Commodity prices could have further to go if inflation is not conquered. And the semiconductor and transport sectors both serve as excellent le...

Russ Mould of A J Bell takes Simon Rose through the key themes affecting investors in 2022. Oil, gas and inflation is the first though some forget the oil price has been flat. Interest rates finally moved higher. With the fed so hawkish, the dollar was incredibly strong, at least until the end of the year. It was a year in which cryptocurrencies crumbled and in which the seemingly unstoppable tech...

Victoria Scholar of Interactive Investor, despite being in a broken-down car in freezing weather, talked to Simon Rose about the latest interest-rate decisions from the Fed, the Bank of England and the ECB. With growth weakening, all three tilted away from a more hawkish position. In the UK, the pound and banks were lower ahead of the MPC's announcement while housebuilders were stronger because in...

With the World Cup in full flow and Manchester United up for sale, Russ Mould of A J Bell looks at the economics of football clubs. Although Man United was worth $78m when it floated in 1991 and is, in theory, set to sell for upwards of $4bn, for investors of late it, and every other club, has proved a poor investment. Russ explains how modern football financing works, pointing out that, in good t...

Victoria Scholar of Interactive Investor talks to Simon Rose about the reasons behind the recent better performance for markets around the world and the recent losses for the dollar. Although the outlook for the UK economy looks fairly bleak at present, it feels – as far as markets are concerned – as if the Santa rally has come early this year. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoice...

Russ Mould of A J Bell explains why interest rates are so important for property and why shares such as Real Estate Investment Trusts fall as the 10-year "risk free" gilt yield goes up. But many are on big discounts to net asset value (which may yet fall of course). Central banks are more worried about deflation than inflation, reckons Russ, and if interest rates are peaking, it may be worth keepi...

Victoria Scholar of Interactive Investor takes Simon Rose through the main points of the Chancellor's Autumn Statement. Investors will want to take note of the changes to dividends and Capital Gains Tax. She points out that market reaction was fairly muted although the electricity companies' shares were incredibly volatile. As so often, these days, of course, much of what Jeremy Hunt had to say ha...

Russ Mould of A J Bell looks at the housebuilders, hit by inflation, mortgage problems and dwindling demand with some cutting dividends. Pointing out the dangers of double-digit yielding shares, he wonders if the sector might be worth looking at soon. Although investors often go for growth or income, the Holy Grail, he says is a company that grows its dividend consistently, which will then produce...

Richard Hunter, head of markets at Interactive Investor, updates Simon Rose on the latest 0.75% interest rate rises from the US Fed and the Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee. As he explains, markets have reacted badly, more in response to the statements about the future, than to the rises themselves. He assesses Sainsbury's half-year numbers which show just how difficult times are for th...

Laith Khalaf of A J Bell tells Simon Rose that, to a large extent, normality has been restored to financial markets since Rishi Sunak becamse Prime Minister. Although the Autumn Statement has been delayed to November 17, the markets appear not be too concerned. Laith explains what the markets are expecting when the MPC meets next week and advises investors to keep an eye on bonds, which – although...