Hrkn to .. The Financial Outlook for Personal Investors

Neil Shah of Edison Group says that the UK market continues to look cheap, noting that bid activity is picking up. He hopes that the Autumn Statement from the Chancellor will contain something like changes in the ISA rules to encourage greater investment in UK equities. He also looks at the way in which the transformation set in train at Marks & Spencer 4 or 5 years ago to create a more nimble bus...

Three years on from Pfizer Monday, when Pfizer and BioNTech announced a Covid vaccine, Russ Mould of A J Bell looks at how different the investment world is now. Commodities have outperformed equities which have outperformed bonds, with Bitcoin doing best of all as investors search for a store of value that won't be affected by central banks. While both drugs companies' shares are lower than 3 yea...

Neil Shah of Edison Group tells SImon Rose of Edison's study into the consumer sector, which has been affected by the hit to consumer confidence. There's plenty of value in the sector and the report lists companies which have had upgrades but not seen share reactions. The changed environment is exposing those companies which have weak business models. He also highlights Vietnam Holdings, an invest...

Ever the contrarian, Russ Mould of A J Bell wonders why he is getting no questions at the moment about mining shares. They have underperformed growth stocks for a decade or so and it is true they are suffering cost input issues like so many other businesses. However, their balance sheets are pretty healthy, we still need the things they dig out of the ground and the renewables transition will exac...

Neil Shah of Edison Group looks at the possible ramifications of the Middle East crisis which, if it continues, could mean higher oil prices, a less optimistic picture for inflation and a boost for safe havens, perhaps with tech stocks stuffering. He points out that it's a binary switch, with the opposite happening if the situation improves. He also talks about the Abrdn UK Smaller Growth Trust. D...

Russ Mould of A J Bell looks at the effect conflicts have had on financial markets using the All-Share Index since it was instituted in 1962. While recognising that much else is more important, he concludes that, by and large, the reaction of markets is not long lasting. The big exception was 1973's Yom Kippur War which led to the 73-4 oil price shock. While events may not be directly comparable,...

Russ Mould of A J Bell discusses share buybacks. Long popular in the United States, he notes that they are currently down by a fifth YOY, pointing out that previous peaks coincided with market tops. In the UK, many of our biggest companies have engaged in buybacks, particularly in the financial field. With the FTSE yielding 3.9%, buybacks are adding another 2.3%. While private investors don't usua...

Neil Shah of Edison Group discusses the fall in inflation and the MPC's decision to pause interest rate rises with Simon Rose. He points out that a lot of money is going into the bond market, which should be positive for equities and offers advice about how to position your porfolio in the current environment. He points to two companies investors might find interesting, Team Internet (formerly Cen...

Russ Mould of A J Bell looks at the high rate of departures of FTSE 100 CEOs and, indeed, CFOs. 18 CEOs are going this year, with another 4 already known to be departing in 2024. The figures for CFOs are 31 this year, with another 6 planned next. Such elevated numbers were also seen in 2000, 2007, 2013 and 2020, none of them years investors will look back on fondly. Russ also answers the obvious q...

Welcome to a special episode of The Financial Outlook: the investment section of the Managing My Money course. What's the difference between saving and investment? It's all in the risk. We talk about shares, bonds and funds, and which perform best over the long term. The Managing My Money course has 16 sections in total, and is presented by Glen Goodman and Annie Weston. You can enjoy the whole co...

Russ Mould of A J Bell points out that while stocks in tech, the US and Latin America have been doing well, markets everywhere have shunned small cap companies. He wonders why they aren't doing well in what is said to be a risk-on period. Having been trained in a bear market, it's making him feel cautious, even though the markets may think they're back in Goldilocks territory. However, he suggests...

With AI-chip maker Nvidia surprising the market, Neil Shah of Edison Group looks at ways investors who feel they've missed that particular boat can invest in AI. He singles out as possible AI beneficiaries credit reporter Experian, Ocado and Rightmove and he explains why. But he also looks at the importance of energy efficiency as we head towards Net Zero, highlighting SDCL Energy Efficiency Incom...

Russ Mould of A J Bell takes a look at what's been driving markets on both sides of the Atlantic. In the US, it's largely been growth stocks with some element of travel as well. In the UK, it's largely been companies like Rolls-Royce, and Marks and Spencer, companies that had seemed very much out of favour at the turn of the year. Many of the best performers are consumer-led stocks, despite cost-o...

Neil Shah of Edison Group discusses the media sector. While consumers may welcome the end of the online cookie, in the UK only the movie and entertainment sectors are doing well, with most others struggling and hoping to see rising confidence among consumers. Neil, however, discusses one company that has and continues to do well. Based in the US but listed in London, 4Imprint does branded marketin...

Laith Khalaf of A J Bell talks to Simon Rose about the Bank of England's latest interest rate rise, the 14th in a row, taking it to 5.25%. As he points out, two MPC members wanted to increase it to 5.5%. Laith looks at the BoE's latest inflation forecasts (which will be a relief to the PM) and discusses the ramifications of Fitch downgrading the United States' credit rating. Investors, he says, sh...

Andrew Keen of Edison Group discusses energy transition. With the oil and gas companies in long-term structural decline, wind and solar will be the big growth areas while the materials needed are a fascinating area with not enough investment focus. He discusses the trends and some of the problems. However, he points out that it is a complex field and British investors are fortunate that investment...

Danni Hewson of A J Bell talks to Simon Rose about the market reaction to this week's fall in inflation, explaining why investors have seemed so euphoric. She discusses the sectors that have been hardest hit – and now are benefitting most – from inflation turning downwards, such as housebuilders, consumer-facing stocks and companies in the hospitality sector. Learn more about your ad choices. Visi...

Neil Shah of Edison Group discusses the Chancellor's Mansion House speech, particularly the attempt to encourage pension funds and insurance companies to invest in the UK. He gives a shocking example of BT's £37bn pension fund, investing just £100m in UK equities. Neil feels that regulation is forcing too much to go into fixed income and that encouraging but not mandating UK equity investment (inc...

In the wake of the buyout of Lookers, Neil Shah of Edison Group considers whether the fact that the UK listed market is steadily being depleted is a bad thing or not? He feels that takeovers by trade buyers or private equity provide a possible exit for investors when the stock market might be underpricing companies and that, without it, investors – particularly in the small- and mid-cap areas – mi...

With the Bank of England raising interest rates to 5% and inflation not just remaining stubbornly high but perhaps becoming ingrained, Danni Hewson talks to Simon Rose about what the future holds. Housebuilders, retailers and the hospitality sector are saying consumers are resilient but all indicators point to a recession. Investors should be mindful of the changing economy and may need to rebalan...

Neil Shah of Edison Group explains to Simon Rose that, as Albert Einstein remarked, compound interest is the eighth Wonder of the World. He discusses two companies that exhibit the same characterics. Games Workshop, with its niche Warhammer figurines has international scalability and over the long term produces a sustained return on equity while DiscoverIE has transformed itself and is another sel...

Russ Mould of A J Bell, ever the contrarian, finds oil of interest because it is currently viewed so negatively. But he points out that, while supply is not growing, the world is still addicted to the stuff and that if demand keeps growing, it must have an effect on the price. For interested investors, he suggests sticking to the majors, a specialist fund or passive instrument, or a combination wi...

Neil Shah of Edison Group talks to Simon Rose about the general state of the markets, where the US and UK are lagging Europe and parts of Asia. The UK is held back by an absence of decent growth while investors are nervous of a possible American recession, deflation and banking problems. In the UK, though, there are always going to be interesting companies able to react to difficult conditions and...

Russ Mould of A J Bell looks at the rise of the Japanese stock market, which has hit a 33-year-high. He points out that it is still a quarter below its all-time high, hit on the last day of 1989. After debt-fuelled craziness saw the land of the Imperial Palace worth more than all of California before a collapse, and with decades of QE since, foreign investors have long neglected the market. Japane...

After the Bank of England raise interest rates to their highest since 2008 Russ Mould of A J Bell points out that the last time inflation was in double digits, so were interest rates. At present, real interest rates are heavily negative. He also discusses share buybacks, illegal in the US until 1982. They're now being used heavily by FTSE100 companies and Russ discusses their pros and cons and whe...