Hrkn to .. The Financial Outlook for Personal Investors

Russ Mould of A J Bell discusses the General Election call, pointing out that while CPI inflation has almost returned to target, other measures are considerably higher and CPI itself is 26% higher than when Boris Johnson was elected PM. He explains why the markets no longer believe rates will be cut soon and what this means for those shares that are effectively bond proxies, such as utilities. Eve...

Neil Shah of Edison Group discusses the latest changes to his amazingly successful model portfolio The Illuminator. Although still of interest Rolls-Royce and Rightmove are ejected to make room for two newcomers. Online appliance retailer AO World has embarked on a turnaround and its guidance is optimistic, showing a great increase in profitability. Possessing a good balance sheet, they should ear...

With the Bank of England's MPC displaying "studious inactivity", Russ Mould of A J Bell looks at why interest rates are so important to pricing in stock markets. Despite no change in rates, the UK market is now anticipating a cut soon helped by the Swedish Riksbank cutting its rates for the first time in 8 years, along with other European banks. Russ also looks at the types of shares that will ben...

Neil Shah of Edison Group highlights a couple of companies he thinks might interest private investors. Many will have dealt with broker A J Bell which Neil thinks is doing well, being the 2nd-biggest execution-only broker. They've grown market share by lowering their prices but, given the drive for people to take more control of their finances, he finds them relatively inexpensive. And, although h...

After starting the year no higher than it was in 2018, Russ Mould tells Simon Rose why the FTSE 100-Share Index hit a record high. The best cure for low prices, he explains, is low prices. The currency is cheap for overseas investors thanks to Brexit, hence so much takeover activity, dividends are reasonably healthy and, with buybacks taken into account, the index is effectively yielding more than...

Neil Shah of Edison Group looks at the 1st quarter trading update from Foxton's which, wit a new management team, is undergoing a turnaround. It's a great brand, underpinned by good IT and data. It is a stable business (particularly lettings) with low risk on the downside which might have a great upside if press comments about it being sold are borne out. More esoteric is the Seraphim Space Invest...

Russ Mould of A J Bell explains why inflation – and the risk-free rate – are so important for pricing in markets. Expectations for interest-rate cuts being scaled back as inflation persists have helped gold reach record levels as investors look for stores of value. But Russ points out that silver has had less attention and is relatively cheap in comparison with gold. If there is a shift in the moo...

Russell Pointon of Edison Group talks to Simon Rose about the consumer sector where the M&A activity is confirming that a lot of companies are looking cheap. Best off are those companies able to pass on inflation, such as Gregg's. While things should get better this year, the sector isn't out of the woods yet. While this week's trading update from Topps Tiles saw reduced estimates, Russell is enco...

Russ Mould, after explaining why cocoa has recently become more expensive than copper, thinks the buoyancy of "Doctor Copper" could suggest the global economy is in ruder health than many believe. If so, he wonders why central banks are so keen to cut interest rates. And if inflation rises, commodities could return to fashion. He points out that mining stocks have failed to keep pace with commodit...

Neil Shah of Edison Group thinks investors should be looking ahead several months, when interest rates will be lower and companies doing better. He likes the look of investment trust Law Debenture, predominantly investing in UK equities, split between larger and small & midcap companies, which are even more undervalued. Their professional services business enhances the returns, as explained in a n...

Russ Mould looks at the bid activity in the UK market with an increased bid for Direct Line and the offer for Curry's being withdrawn. The forty-plus bids last year returned about 1.5% to investors, making a total yield with cashbacks and dividends of over 7%. Should investors look for stocks that might receive a bid or should they heed the words of Warren Buffett? And if so many predators see val...

Neil Shah of Edison Group assesses the likely impact of the Chancellor's idea for British ISAs, believing they could stimulate the undervalued UK market. As the bids for Spirent and others show companies are being taken out relatively cheaply. He also explains that it might profit investors to look at listed private equity companies, which typically generate 14% year on year but which are trading...

Russ Mould of A J Bell looks ahead to the full year results of the UK's insurance companies. While a valid short cut could be to think of the life companies in particular as bond proxies, he explains more sophisticated ways of assessing them as investment prospects. He points out that the life companies have some very high yields, but investors must consider if these compensate for the risks and c...

Neil Shah of Edison Group looks at Rolls-Royce in the wake of results showing record profitability and a massive turnaround in the business. It shows, he feels, the importance of leadership with CEO Tufan Erginbilgic able to explain clearly what is happening within a complex business, driving long-term profitability by focussing on the things that matter. He feels there is much further to go with...

Are the banks cheap or are investors right to be wary? With results season upon us, Russ Mould of A J Bell points out how the sector has been underperforming, even though 2023 profits are forecast to be at an all-time high along with cash returns. It may be that investors feel 2023 will be as good as it gets and are wary of the economy's future. But for long-term investors who aren't particularly...

Neil Shah of Edison Group looks at the housebuilding sector in the light of Barratt's bid for Redrow, a deal the market has not looked favourably upon. There is a severe shortage of new housing but it is a difficult time for housebuilders, with difficulties over planning and environmental rules and higher interest rates, Neil feels that the sector is cyclical and that, over the long term, the fund...

After quickly discussing what he found most interesting about the MPC's decision to hold interest rates, Russ Mould looks at A J Bell's 10th annual examination of analysts' research. He reveals that they are more bullish than ever, with 62% recommending buys and just 7% sells. This, he feels, is reasonable, given the long-term underperformance of the FTSE 100 Index. Pointing out the most popular s...

Neil Shah returns to the subject of 4imprint after their year-end update. This well-run company making marketing promotional goods in the US surprised on the upside. Efficient and responsible, they are at a discount to a sensible price. He also looks at Telecom Plus, trading as Utility Warehouse, which provides all your utilities in a single service, using economies of scale to get the best deal f...

Neil Shah of Edison Group feels that the bond market has now normalised whch could help the equity market, where many companies have stabilised after a tough year, although he points out that the US market looks peaky. He admires the outstanding quarter year results from Gregg's. The business appears to be in the sweet spot where value is important to customers with a healthy balance sheet and a g...

Russ Mould of A J Bell looks at the stability – or lack of it – of FTSE CEOs compared to football managers, with the former averaging 5.4 years against just 1.5 years. More seriously, he discusses his governance checklist, a fascinating series of questions investors should ask themselves before committing themselves to buying any particular company's shares. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit...

Russ Mould of A J Bell suggests the themes investors should watch out for in 2024. Equity markets seem optimistic while the gilts market – with an inverted yield curve – suggests a recession is likely and the commodity markets seem completely confused. Debt, however, is the biggest issue in the world, creating a headache for central banks. China, France and, soon, the US will all be using 20% of t...

Neil Shah of Edison Group discusses his model portfolio, The Illuminator which, sticking to certain parameters, has outperformed the FTSE 100 Index over 8 times since it started in 2008. He explains how it works, what's in it and reveals that, from January, it will be freely available to all. He also discusses an insightful interview with Polar Capital Technology Trust's Alastair Unwin. It reveals...

Russ Mould of A J Bell has been crunching dividend numbers for the FTSE 100 index. Dividend forecasts for this year and next have fallen 10% over the past year and the jump in interest rates means that there is now more competition for investors' money. However, the market is expecting rate cuts and investors should remember that while fixed income is just that – fixed – companies can grow their d...

Neil Shah of Edison Group explains why the UK market is extremely cheap internationally, which is why we are seeing companies being bought out. He says that domestic investors should not give up hope. Given that many large UK companies have substantial foreign interests, you can get foreign exposure more cheaply, while investment trusts have further attractions. As the Chancellor has said that the...

Russ Mould of A J Bell says investors shouldn't get too excited by things like the Autumn Statement given that the government may change in less than a year, that if it was easy to pull a lever and energise the economy it would have been done by now and that the government and the Bank of England seem to be pulling in different directions. With changes imminent, he looks at the FTSE 100-Share Inde...