Hrkn to .. The Financial Outlook for Personal Investors

Neil Shah of Edison Group discusses two companies he feels might be of interest to private investors. Focusrite, with a global market, has two divisions: content creation sells hardware and software while audio reproduction is driven by live music. Despite a torrid year or so they are investing in new product lines, have sound management and a good long-term record. Accsys Technologies has a techn...

Russ Mould of A J Bell points out that supposedly risk-free 10-year gilts and corresponding instruments have risen despite interest rate cuts from central banks. At the same time, equities have been generally strong. In the US, the 10-year Treasury is now equal to the earnings yield on the S&P 500. Investors might be taking the extra risk anticipating upside potential but it could be seen as an ea...

Neil Shah of Edison Group says that since the Trump victory, Tesla's shares have added $300 billion. The market is betting that US policy will be supportive of Elon Musk and his company, which could benefit from a more protectionist approach. Although the fundamentals are challenging (the PE is 90-100), it relatively cheap compared to some AI stocks. In the UK, shares in Dowlais Group (spun out of...

Russ Mould of A J Bell explains that US markets are strong in the wake of Trump's victory from a sense of relief that Harris didn't win. Trump wants to boost American growth, perhaps using tariffs, while at the same time wanting a weaker dollar. As the world's reserve currency, the strength of the dollar is of massive important. Russ discusses the Triffin Dilemma, which explains why the world need...

Neil Shah of Edison Group looks at Rachel Reeves' Budget. In advance, many peole were withdrawing money from investments but, although the gilts market has seen yields rise, there's a general air of relief that it isn't more draconian. He feels things should normalise in the coming weeks and that, with the UK still forecast to grow, it's a good investment climate. Low-margin, high-workforce sector...

Russ Mould of A J Bell looks at the UK's main banks now that we're in the midst of results season. He points out that while the big five account for 11% of the FTSE's market cap, they produce 1/5 of pre-tax profits and 1/5 of total dividends. There remains a good deal of residual scepticism. They may yet be worth a look, despite the many possible adverse factors. Russ notes that cashbacks and divi...

Neil Shah of Edison Group finds London Tunnels' project fascinating. Despite the name, they are listed on Euronext and aim to turn the network of tunnels under Holborn Underground into a major tourist attraction. Although intended as air raid shelters they became a home for MI6 and ended up being used by the GPO. Details of a forthcoming presentation are on the Edison Group website. Card Factory i...

Russ Mould of A J Bell discusses the UK 10-year gilt yield rising over 4%, despite the Bank of England governor saying that interest rate cuts could happen more quickly. Why are equity markets both here and in the US more optimistic than fixed interest investors? In the UK we owe £2.5 trillion and have a £100 billion interest bill, so the government faces very difficult decisions. The only way to...

Neil Shah of Edison Group sees little to disappoint with Greggs' Q3 results. It remains a hugely efficient machine which is great at understanding consumer needs. Opening new stores aggressively in the wake of Covid and expanding into evening service, it remains attractively priced. He also looks at the collective investment vehicle Gresham House Energy Storage Fund. It has performed poorly of lat...

Russ Mould of A J Bell discusses the Fed cutting rates by half a percentage point – rather high for the start of a cycle – and China's latest attempt at stimulus. In the UK, cyclical sectors are leading the way and the market benefits from being lower-rated and having more political stability, at least more than the US. The FTSE-350 also has an effective yield of 7.5%. Financial markets were not k...

Neil Shah of Edison Group says that tech-focussed, early-stage venture capital company IP Group is worth taking a look at. With a market cap of £460m, some of the businesses it invested in are now quoted and, while the interim results reflected a difficult period, things are now improving. With some facinating things in the portfolio, the long-duration investor IP is at a 56% discount to net asset...

In the wake of the AngloGold Ashanti bid for Centamin at 1.7x price/book value, Russ Mould of A J Bell explains why so many gold miners are being bid for. Russ points out that gold mining shares are at an all-time low compared to the gold price. And gold itself is no more expensive relative to equities than it was when Richard Nixon took the dollar off the gold standard. Combined with the fact tha...

Neil Shah of Edison Group takes a look at two housing-related stocks. Rightmove has surged on talk of a bid. It's a jewel of a stock with something like 80% of the online estate agency market. This shows yet again how overseas investors consider the UK market undervalued. Neil believes Rightmove's model has amazing potential for AI. He also discusses Barratt Developments, which has just produced a...

So far this year there have been 108 interest rate cuts worldwide. Russ Mould of A J Bell has crunched the numbers for 13 interest rate cycles and found that the All-Share Index averages a gain of 16.5% after 2 years from falling rates. However, with investors often anticipating cuts, markets are far more volatile for the first 3-6 months. Russ also considers whether very low rates are a good thin...

Neil Shah of Edison group looks at a couple of companies which will benefit from the cycle turning in response to declining interest rates. Both are related to the housing market. Estate agents Foxtons have a reasonably-new management team and their interim results show encouraging progress and seem reasonably valued. So too is Topps Tiles, which Neil has discussed on Share Radio before. They are...

Andrew Keen, head of resources at Edison Group, discusses the global diversified miners. Although known for volatility and economic exposure, they are, he says, effectively commodity portfolio managers, a proxy for commodity baskets. While it is difficult for most private clients to research individual commodities and mining stocks, it is not hard to understand the large companies. However, when c...

Following the Bank of England's interest rate cut Russ Mould of A J Bell discusses the positives and negatives of lower rates. He also talks about the strong flow of share buybacks in the UK, with almost £50bn announced so far this year. He explains why they aren't always a good idea and should be viewed on a case-by-case basis. Although private investors don't benefit directly, their equity stake...

Russell Pointon of Edison Group summarises the company's quarterly consumer report, which finds signs of better momentum in profit reports and, despite a tough macro background, sees consumer confidence increasing. Among companies that are lowly valued relative to their peers, Russell highlights Card Factory. Under relatively new management, it is extending its range beyond greetings cards into gi...

Daniel Casali, chief investment strategist at Evelyn Partners, looks at the outlook for global stocks, where it's been the AI theme that has driven markets, led by the six mega caps. But, unlike the dotcom bubble, there are real earnings here as these companies are generating big profits so the high ratings can be justified. We now need to see how AI will be utilised by businesses. He also explain...

Dan Ridsdale, head of technology at Edison Group, looks at the state of play with AI, a structural growth trend, where only the companies on the hardware side stand at a premium. In looking at where the revenue from AI will come, investors need to consider what sort of companies will benefit from its use and which have the best relationships with the AI providers. He also discusses geospatial and...

Neil Shah of Edison Group looks at YouGov whose shares have halved since a recent profit warning. Despite having 15 years of valuable data and with a sound core business, they were on a vulnerable high rating and investors will how need to reassess and reevaluate and it may be some time before the shares are less volatile. Diageo shares have fallen 30% or so this year, partly because of weakness i...

Russ Mould of A J Bell wasn't surprised that the Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee opted for no change in interest rates, though he was surprised that the vote was yet again 7-2. Services inflation is still too high, as is wage growth, for the Bank to be comfortable easing off. He notes that the UK stock market is now worth more than the French, one positive sign. He will be interested t...

Neil Shah of Edison Group discusses two turnaround situations. Video games company Frontier Developments suffered along with the entire sector but its new games are performing well, as is its back catalogue. It is now focusing on its core business and Neil feels it's one to put on the radar and watch. Dialight makes LEDs to be used in challenging environments and is well positioned for growth, wit...

Russ Mould of A J Bell says that markets have traditionally done better under the Conservatives, though they have had longer in power than Labour. While the size of majorities makes no discernible difference, what is important is the macro side and particularly inflation. Since 2019 the CPI is up 22% and the RPI 33%, with wages up by a quarter. He looks at how different sectors might be affected s...

Neil Shah of Edison Group thinks the bid for Hargreaves Lansdown is interesting, feeling its prospects and potential growth rate might surprise a sceptical market. He sees there being a change in sentiment around the UK market, feeling that the perception that it is undervalued is being more widely appreciated. He also discusses the consumer sector where, if you look under the bonnet and are willi...