Hrkn to .. The Financial Outlook for Personal Investors

Russ Mould of A J Bell points out that financial stocks have been performing really well of late, partly because things have been boring for them, with nothing untoward happening, while the yield curve is working in their favour. Banks will benefit from supply chains being brought home. They're difficult for private investors to analyse and there's a risk of performance chasing but, if they genera...

Chloe Wong Yun Shin of Edison Group highlights two of the Baillie Gifford funds that presented at the company's recent conference. The US Growth Trust's manager is still very excited about American companies. They are very volatile, so patience is crucial, but the fund remains a conviction investor, in it for the long term. The Schiehallion Fund specialises in later stage private businesses, parti...

Fixed interest investors, says Russ Mould of A J Bell, are concerned that Trump's "Big Beautiful Bill" will add to the US's current $36 trillion debt pile, with debt interest already accounting for a fifth of the US tax take. Things that serve as hedges against inflation, stagflation or policy error, such as gold, are rising again. Is silver – challenging the $33-an-ounce level again – being undul...

Finlay Mathers and Neil Shah of Edison Capital discuss two tech funds heavily involved in AI. Polar Capital's successful Technology Fund has recently shifted massively into the field, with an 80-90% exposure to AI. Focussing on the middle section of the company life cycle, its managers say that AI is on an exponential curve, much like the development of early skyscrapers. Molten Ventures is a publ...

Russ Mould of A J Bell explains that markets are hoping that trade deals might be in the offing to reduce the effect of President Trump's tariffs. It is too early to tell if this is a triumph of hope over expectation or if the UK will be one of the first companies to strike a deal with the US and reduce the effect of tariffs. Russ goes through some of the companies which have explained how they wi...

Chloe Won Yung Shin of Edison Group thinks investors should keep an eye out for Metlen. It's a Greek energy and metals company with a €6bn market cap heading for a second listing in London later in the year, where it may join the FTSE100. It's Europe's only aluminium producer and has an increasing interest in producing critical metals. IP Group invests in intellectual property businesses, mainly i...

Russ Mould of A J Bell says that when the US President doesn't know what's happening next, how can anybody else, particularly when the reasons given for imposing tariffs are so contradictory? Investing should be about sleeping well at night. If your investments are keeping you awake, perhaps you should make them safer. Think about asset allocation and whether America – and tech stocks – will lead...

FInlay Mathers of Edison Group discusses Rolls-Royce which, under new management, met all its turnaround targets two years early and confounded investors' attitudes towards its business, comprising civil aviation, aerospace and power systems. The shares are above the industry average but it's a fantastic business whose air business has a "power by the hour" model linking it to the upturn in global...

Chloe Won Yung Shin of Edison Group discusses Michelmarch Bricks' recent results. It makes 122m bricks and pavers a year, has a strong balance sheet and should benefit from the UK's structural shortage of housing. On a discount to its peers, it has 7% of the market with further upside potential. Andy Murphy, director of content for Industrials at Edison is intrigued by Smiths News. A regional dist...

Russ Mould says that with the OBR lowering its growth and raising its inflation target, stagflation looks even more likely. The concept of "fiscal headroom", he says, is pure rhubarb but the bond market seemed content with what Rachel Reeves had to say, even though the UK's interest bill is higher than the defence budget. However, tariffs are going to complicate things. With the NASDAQ this year's...

Finlay Mathers and Neil Shah of Edison Group discuss the move by investors out of the US and into the UK and other European markets, as Trump's tariffs produce a downturn for the American economy and equities. The UK market is far cheaper, has less downside, and it doesn't take much money moving from the big seven US megacaps to stimulate change in European markets. Finlay also discusses BAE Syste...

Everyone is asking what American tariffs mean for the UK, says Russ Mould of A J Bell. The UK isn't currently in the firing line, except for steel, but this may change next month because of VAT. 13% of global trade involves the US. For the UK, it totals £280bn, much less than with the EU. Trying to second guess what will happen is a fool's errand. Investors should go back to fundamentals. So far U...

Chloe Won Yung Shin and Neil Shah of Edison Group highlight Accsys Technologies after their recent investor day. The company uses its patented process to turn fast-growing sustainable softwoods into tough, long-lasting wood. It has overcome past cost overruns and changed management. Now underpromising and over-delivering, it has huge potential. In its preliminary results, Greggs revealed that it i...

Russ Mould of A J Bell says that while the UK economy may look gloomy, it is not the stock market. With earnings season under way, 82 companies are doing better than expected, with 72 doing worse, so things look moderately positive. Remember of course, that the majority of FTSE company profits are earned overseas. With buybacks significantly ahead of last year, the cash yield is 4.5-5%. The UK is...

Russell Pointon of Edison Group discusses their latest ConsumerWatch report. Despite weak consumer confidence and low economic growth, the sector did well at the end of 2024. Looking ahead, they expect progress from every sub-sector. Those likely to prove consistently strong are hotels, restaurants and leisure with 27 companies highlighted, among them Topps Tiles, Deliveroo, M&S, Next and Hollywoo...

Russ Mould of A J Bell looks at activist investors in the wake of Elliott's interest in BP, listing the many companies in similar positions. He explains the four principal things they are looking for and they only tend to get loud and aggressive if they feel they are being ignored. Any CEOs whose companies fit the criteria should be prepared for activist interest, particularly as the UK market is...

Finlay Mathers of Edison Group thinks investors should keep an eye on IntelliAM which uses AI software to provide solutions to target inefficiencies for companies in the FMCG (Fast-Moving Consumer Goods) sector. Able significantly to reduce the time equipment lies idle, it is small but has really great growth potential. He also looks at the way profit forecasts in the consumer sector are proving m...

Russ Mould of A J Bell looks at the disruption to US AI stocks caused by the arrival onto the scene of Deep Seek. If it indeed turns out to be cheaper to train and run, then it throws an enormous spanner in the wheels of the American tech stocks. It also shows just how incredibly volatile those highly-priced shares are. Russ recalls that after previous tech bubbles burst, those stocks went into th...

Chloe Wong Yun Shing and Neil Shah of Edison Group discuss Topps Tiles which is defying the weak housing market and low consumer confidence and recently reported revenue growing again. This momentum is projected to continue, particularly if the acquisition of CTD Tiles goes ahead. They also return to 4imprint, an American company making promotional products. With excellent management and strong cu...

Russ Mould of A J Bell explains that private investor interest in gilts has soared of late, now that they provide a good interest rate and are relatively risk-free, providing that they are held to maturity. They are reckoning, presumably, that inflation will not rise although some of the Budget measures have yet to have their effect, while oil and international food prices are currently rising. Ru...

Neil Shah of Edison Group discusses the latest bid for a UK company, Team Internet, which he discussed here recently as trading at a discount to its international peers. He points out that UK companies are vulnerable to takeover; the worry is that the UK market will keep shrinking, although he feels that value investing will return. With activist Saba Capital trying to replace the boards of 7 inve...

Russ Mould of A J Bell reckons the most significant number of 2024 was 193, the number of global interest rate cuts. For the most part, markets got what they wanted last year. But at the end, bond yields were telling a different message, one which equity markets didn't believe. As for the UK market, yes it's shrinking in terms of listings but it is relatively cheap despite a decent yield, lots of...

Contrarian that he is, Russ Mould of A J Bell was surprised that 2024 turned out pretty much as consensus had it, though few predicted the surge in Bitcoin. Looking ahead to 2025, he wonders what might knock growth and inflation off the rails. He recommends keeping an eye on government debt (growing scarily), world trade flows and tariffs, the dollar (a trade surplus would starve the world of its...

Neil Shah of Edison Group highlights research claiming there may be a generational opportunity in the UK market, extremely cheap against other markets, particularly the US. The tide in sentiment may be turning and American investors are already looking to the UK to diversify and reduce downside risk. The company highlights 20 stocks in the report. https://tinyurl.com/56sj3h4u. Neil also returns to...

Russ Mould of A J Bell discusses the Bloomberg piece pointing out that 45 firms have left the UK market this year through mergers and acquisitions. But is it such a bad thing that almost £50bn has gone to investors or that UK assets are both cheap and desired? It's true that the number of companies quoted in the UK has halved in 30 years but the decline has been true in the US and Australia too. W...