Hrkn to .. The Financial Outlook for Personal Investors

Russ Mould of A J Bell comments that, given the headwinds buffetting markets in 2025, you would hardly expect it to have been such a fantastic year for assets. He suggests 5 topics for investors to consider in 2026: interest rates; AI; commodities; small caps; and cash returns. Monetary and fiscal policy (except taxes in the UK) was generally stimulative and looks likely to continue. We have littl...

Russ Mould of A J Bell says that Rachel Reeves' Budget was delivered with an eye on the bond markets. Fortunately for her, the 10-year gilt has been steady since, even if it is higher than when Labour took over and has moved in a different direction to BoE interest rates. All equity investors have an interest in gilt yields, whether they know it or not. Russ reckons this year could be the UK's bes...

Finlay Mathers of Edison discusses BP, which has changed strategy to give an emphasis to shareholder return, increasing investment in oil & gas by 20% while reducing transition investment by 70%. The company will be focussing on cost reductions and efficiency, strengthening its balance sheet and reducing net debt. Neil Shah of Edison returns to the topic of Games Workshop, which he has mentioned h...

Neil Shah of Edison Group says markets were relieved that the Budget did nothing to undermine confidence. Banks reacted positively, as did Rank, along with wealth managers and financial services, as it will be increasingly punitive to save or invest outside a tax wrapper. High end housebuilders suffered and the tax increases won't help the consumer sector. For somebody looking for exposure to prec...

In the wake of Nvidia's 3rd quarter results, Russ Mould of A J Bell says that all capital expenditure booms come to an end because of over-investment. It is too soon to say how this one will turn out. He is intrigued, though, that AI tech needs energy and mined metals and yet capex in those sectors is very low. With AI, we need to see some return on the money invested. If it turns out to be the pr...

Neil Shah of Edison Group says that the heathcare sector has had a torrid time recently but that many of the risks that caused the rerating are vanishing. Positives include demographics, innovation and the patent cliff, which is increasing M&A activity. He mentions some good specialist investment trusts worth considering. He also feels that small caps might soon come into their own, with Budget ch...

Russ Mould of A J Bell and author of the Telegraph's Questor column wonders why the Chancellor gave a speech about giving a speech, comparing it to Hugh Dalton having to resign in 1947 for letting slip something in the Budget. But the Budget will be important for affecting the 10-year gilt yield, seen as the risk-free rate. Any other investments should be priced to provide higher returns. As examp...

Neil Shah of Edison group feels that Primary Health Properties, which does what it says on the tin, will benefit from the takeover of Assura. 80-90% of its income is backed by the government so the shares can be compared to gilts, except that the company will produce growth and rising dividends. It's on a prospective yield of 7.7%. He is also upbeat on the UK market. American investors are looking...

Russ Mould of A J Bell says that he is being bombarded with questions about whether there will be a market meltdown. On the negative side are government debt and interest bills which inhibit growth and might lead to a deflationary bust; soaring private debt; the private credit wobble; unbalanced markets; and high valuations. On the positive side the US economy might run hot as Trump wants; central...

Russ Mould of A J Bell considers what might happen to gold. How safe is it riding such a volatile bull? Gold, after all, generates no income. The price appears to be responding to a loss of central bank control, galloping debt and stubborn inflation, as well as central bank buying after US sanctions on Russia. The run may have gone far enough but investors who are interested should remember the im...

Chloe Wong Yun Shing of Edison Group highlights the cards, gifts and party essentials company Card Factory. Recent results show store revenue up 1.5% like for like. Costs have risen 4.4% but the company is mitigating this and is shifting focus online. Mobile payment company Boku were made Company of the Year at the AIM Awards. They're a good example of how fintechs are growing. Boku, capitalised o...

Russ Mould of A J Bell remarks on the Bank of England slowing down its gilt sales. The 10-year gilt, currently 4.7%, is seen as the risk-free rate against which other bonds are rated, the risks with them being inflation, interest rates, credit risk and liquidity. With equities, there's a mysterious turning point where institutions feel it's safer to be in gilts. After its rise, the UK market isn't...

Neil Shah of Edison Group admires Next for its forward planning and economic predictions. Its latest report anticipates anaemic growth, depressed by poor job opportunities, excess government spending and regulation and a rising tax burden. Coming on top of news that fund managers are dumping UK equities at the fastest rate in 20 years, it feels like a turning of the tide. On a more optimistic note...

Russ Mould of A J Bell returns to the topic of mining, particularly copper, in the wake of the link-up of Anglo American and Teck Resources. Copper is a great guide to the economic weather, with many industrial uses and being essential to electrification. Although nobody seems to be discussing it, Teck was trading at a big discount and has many possible synergies with Anglo. Russ also discusses so...

Finlay Mathers of Edison highlights Futronic, an AIM-listed UK technology company specialising in extremely-high-frequency radio solutions for space, defence and communications. They've recently seen a sharp increase in growth and new contracts with Space X now account for almost half their revenue. Although it has a high rating, this reflects the step change in Futronic's growth rate. He also dis...

Russ Mould of A J Bell suggests that miners and commodities are looking interesting. Greek energy and commodity giant Metlen is about to join the FTSE 100 although only 20% of it is metals-related (the rest is in energy). But gold and silver have been on a tear, copper is up, as is iron ore,and yet commodities are still at a multi-year cyclical low. Investors need to be careful about investing in...

Chloe Wong Yun Shing of Edison Group takes Simon Rose through their quarterly Consumer Watch report. The second quarter was hit by shocks like US tariffs while the labour market in the UK softened. Consumer confidence was weak here, in Europe and in North America, though 12 of the UK's 16 subsectors outperformed the market. Among undervalued companies with earnings momentum identified by Edison ar...

Russ Mould of A J Bell is intrigued by Rolls-Royce's CEO saying his company is capable of being the largest in the FTSE. It's currently sixth. He also said he saw no need to moving the listing to the US as others have done, despite half its revenue coming from Stateside. Russ explains why US stocks are on almost double the UK rating and explains why switching the listing is not a free ticket to a...

Russ Mould of A J Bell explains the impressive performance of the UK stock market, with the FTSE passing 9,000 for the first time. UK equities have outperformed those in the US this year despite the dollar having fallen 10%. As Russ has said regularly in this spot, unloved can mean undervalued and that appears to be the case. With regular M&A activity and buybacks, it's estimated the All-Share is...

Chloe Wong Yun Shing of Edison Group returns to the topic of Athens-listed energy & metals company Metlen. Expanding into the defence equipment supply chain, its stragegy remains capex-led and organically financed. Its arrival on the London market in August will be the biggest listing of the year and the £5bn company will qualify for entry to the FTSE, making it a unique and attractive new stock....

Fergus Caheny of Evelyn Partners says investors cannot ignore what is currently happening in the US, where Trump is unhappy with Jay Powell, the Chair of the Fed. It's a politically independent job with nine months to run and Trump cannot sack him. But there's talk of a shadow Fed chair which could challenge the incumbent. With growing unease at the growth of the US deficit, the bond markets are f...

Neil Shah of Edison Group feels BP is going through a transformation under a new management team although, like Rolls Royce, it will take time to gain traction. Reducing debt will make the company a less risky business but it is a key income provider with a progressive dividend policy and a secure income stream so its 6.5% yield is attractive. J P Morgan European Discovery Trust is indicative of t...

Chloe Wong Yun Shing of Edison Group looks at London estate agency Foxtons, which operates in lettings, sales and financial services. It has 6% of the market and expects to move beyond London through acquisitions. It is pivoting towards lettings, which will reduce cyclical volatility. Edison's analysts feel the shares are only half their fair value. Record plc is a specialist asset manager for ins...

Russ Mould of A J Bell, declaring himself no expert in geopolitics, is suprised that markets have not put a bigger risk premium on oil in the past few days. Clearly investors are hopeful that there is not going to be a major escalation. He discusses the rise in the gold price, up 46% in a year in dollar terms, pointing out how expensive it is historically compared to oil and various other commodit...

Finlay Mathers of Edison Group looks at two companies benefitting from increased spending on defence. After some problems last year, Chemring now has a £1.3bn record order book. The company mainly focusses on counter measures and its recent results were very positive. Avon Technologies specialises in military headgear and respiratory equipment. 50% of its revenue comes from the US Department of De...