Hrkn to .. The Financial Outlook for Personal Investors

Victoria Scholar of Interactive Investor looks at the latest inflation numbers, warning that further rises are now inevitable. She looks at the results of Tesco, Asos and Easyjet and how they are affected by so many costs soaring. She discusses how investors can navigate the inflationary environment, pointing out that with cash giving such a negligible return, it's not a time to be uninvested. Inv...

While many nervously watch the US yield curve, which briefly reversed recently, Russ Mould of A J Bell thinks investors should also pay attention to transportation indicators such as the Dow Transportation Index. He believes the market is better at predicting recessions than economists. Explaining why the yield curve is important and why he thinks stagflation is on the cards, he believes investors...

Victoria Scholar, head of investment at Interactive Investor, delves into the Spring Statement, assessing its significance and what the Chancellor is doing to tackle the cost-of-living crisis. While the markets seemed indifferent to the Statement, it is becoming clear that the days of a "floating all boats" market are over. With increased volatility, it is now very much a stockpicker's market. Lea...

Perusing the latest statement from the Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee, Russ Mould of A J Bell says that central bankers currently resemble porcupines in a balloon factory. For investors, trying to second-guess events is extremely difficult, if not impossible. So they should ensure they are sensibly diversified while trying to avoid heavily-indebted companies, particularly in cylical i...

Russ Mould of A J Bell looks at the rally in the NASDAQ and warns that history shows that, even in bear markets, there can be substantial rallies. As he points out, all the problems for the growth stocks that caused the market to fall are still present. He also considers Amazon's buyback plan and stock split, the first time the company has returned cash to investors since its market debut in 1997....

Russ Mould of A J Bell discusses the knock-on effect on economies and markets of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Much depends, he says, on whether things stabilise quickly or not. Of all post-war conflicts, he feels the Arab-Israeli War of 1973 could be the most relevant, with its extraordinary impact on energy prices. If there is no rapid solution, then central banks could find themselves battli...

Victoria Scholar of Interactive Investor talks to Simon Rose about the startling market movements in the wake of the Russian invasion of Ukraine and why the FTSE is proving more resilient than some. With energy and safe havens in demand, how should investors react and position themselves, with the future so uncertain and events doing nothing to still recent volatility? Learn more about your ad cho...

Laith Khalaf of A J Bell looks at the recent UK inflation numbers and wonders if the Bank of England is right to consider the rise transitory or not. It doesn't bode well for NS&I's new Green Savings Bond, he points out, particularly if savers expect interest rates to keep rising. He discusses whether QE has had an effect on inflation and what is happening in the bond market. Learn more about your...

Victoria Scholar of Interactive Investor assesses the fortunes of some US tech stocks in the news recently, including Peloton, Uber and Disney. With inflation unexpectedly rising again to a 40-year high, she considers what the Federal Reserve might be able to do with its demand-side tools, when many problems are on the supply side of the economy. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoi...

Russ Mould of A J Bell looks at the Bank of England's interest rate rise, noticing how much more hawkish the MPC has become, with 4 members wanting an even bigger hike. Although QE has been brought to an end, he wonders how far the bank can go before something breaks - and similarly the Fed. He also looks at the plunge in Meta Platforms/Facebook shares, wondering where future growth could come fro...

Victoria Scholar, head of investment at Interactive Investor, explains why markets are so highly volatile at present, producing the worst start to the year since the financial crisis as QE is about to give way to QT (Quantitative Tightening). She points out that investors should try not to get emotional but to review their portfolio. Indeed, if companies you considered attractive only recently are...

Welcome to another panel session from the Sustain:Social Conference, featuring an all-star line-up of investment professionals: Stephen Porter of Scottish Widows, Nanne Tolsma of Satelligence, Kenneth Mackenzie of Target Fund Managers, Myron Jobson of Interactive Investors and Stephen Clapham of Behind the Balance Sheet. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Victoria Scholar, head of investment at Interactive Investor, talks to Simon Rose about the likely effects of US inflation hitting 7%, a forty-year high. With the labour market there tight, as in the UK, she considers what the Federal Reserve's response is likely to be, given that the problems are caused more by the supply side of the economy, rather than the demand side. And what will this mean f...

Laith Khalaf of A J Bell explains to Simon Rose why US markets have reacted so badly to the minutes of the last Federal Reserve meeting that they shrugged off last month. He marks the rise of Apple to become the world's first $3 trillion company. Back in the UK, he sees early signs of optimism for the retail sector over the holidays. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adcho...

Jonathan Davis, editor of the Investment Trusts Handbook, tells Simon Rose what makes investment trusts special and why investors should consider their merits. He explains the differences to other types of funds, including the premium and discount. He discusses the yields on alternative assets (including renewable energy and even music royalties) and how trusts can continue paying dividends even i...

Russ Mould of A J Bell looks back at 2021, with record highs in the US, India and France and the UK doing creditably and with a decent yield. Oil rose 40% year on year and may yet surprise in 2022 while government bonds were disappointing. Gold surprised by doing little, despite the return of inflation. Looking ahead, Russ believes commodities and real assets may be the safest things, although the...

Russ Mould of A J Bell wonders if the Bank of England is behind the curve, raising interest rates from 0.1% to 0.25%. CPI inflation is 5.1% with RPI the highest in 30 years. He gives an example of company already implementing double-digit price rises. If investors think inflation and interest rates are set to rise further, Russ offers advice. What's worked for the past decade and more may no longe...

As a 12th company in the Footsie this year announces a special dividend, Russ Mould of A J Bell calculates that these, taken together with cashbacks and regular dividends, have amounted to payouts of £105bn, putting the FTSE on around a 5% yield. With fewer IPOs and placings than usual and dividend cover approaching 2, he feels this ought to be supportive of the market, even if some investors migh...

With markets roiled by the new Covid variant and the Fed Chairman admitting inflation may not be temporary after all, Russ Mould of A J Bell asks if we are finally seeing the Taper Tantrum central banks have been so nervous about. Quoting the US Misery Index and the Fear Index, he feels investors - to whom absolutely rather than relative return is most important – should not think that what has wo...

Russ Mould of A J Bell looks at the shakeout in UK energy companies and casts his eye across the Atlantic where President Biden has been trying to talk down the oil price. Noting that price rises might have something to do with the $14 trillion pumped into the US economy since the pandemic began, he speculates on what will happen to the oil and gas price with new exploration so frowned up. He also...

Laith Khalaf, Head of Investment Analysis at A J Bell, asks if CPI rising to 4.2% indicates a return to rising prices or if it might prove relatively temporary. He looks at Shell's decision to ditch its dual-share class and commit to the UK. And he is intrigued by news that the Treasury and Bank of England are to consider a central bank digital currency, nicknamed Britcoin. Learn more about your a...

Russ Mould, Investment Director of A J Bell, looks behind the 30-year-high numbers for US inflation. PI is 6.2% but the producer price index is 8.6% with intermediate producer prices up 25% and raw materials climbing 57% year on year. While high energy prices are responsible for some of that, he also points out that the capital investment of the oil majors is, despite the high oil price, at around...

Russ Mould, Investment Director of A J Bell, looks at the Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee's decision to take no action on interest rates. He wonders if their "studious inactivity" is likely to prove and that all the evidence of mounting inflationary pressure will indeed prove transient. Will we get the Goldilocks economy or has the horse already bolted through the open stable door? The...

If you missed Chancellor Rishi Sunak delivering his speech on 27 October, here's your chance to hear it. Plus, read our commentary on Monday 1 November for Share Radio's perspective, including our assessment of the contrast with the mid-70s, when public borrowing last hit stratospheric levels. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Laith Khalaf of A J Bell discusses the slight fall in inflation last month to 3.1%, pointing out the distortions caused by the pandemic the year earlier. Markets are betting on the Bank of England increasing interest rates in November, but is it likely to happen? Laith looks forward to next week's Budget, thinking investors may be hit by a hike in CGT. And he also highlights the first Bitcoin ETF...