Sergio Stieben
Financial Forensics: The Due Diligence Files
Forensic dissection of capital markets collapses. Not headlines — mechanisms. How money moved. Where structures broke. T1 — Full autopsy. The collapse, the actors, the moment nobody stopped it. T2 — GP/LP room. 3 red flags in the documents. Due diligence questions. Active parallels in deals running today. For allocators, GPs, and fund professionals. Hosted by Sergio Stieben — 15 years in GP/LP relations, cross-border finance US-LatAm-Europe. Data Sheets + early access to LiveDealScreen — live case database and pattern-matching tool for GPs and LPs: https://risk-pattern-scan.lovable.app
Author
Sergio Stieben
Category
Podcast website
Latest episode
Jul 10, 2026
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Episodes
Refco & BAWAG 2005 : The CEO Receivable Fraud & The Sixty-Seven Day Collapse│File 113 T1 17.06.2026 18:00
In August 2005, commodities giant Refco executed a highly anticipated initial public offering on the New York Stock Exchange, generating five hundred and eighty-three million dollars from public capital markets. Just sixty-seven days post-listing, the firm imploded into Chapter 11 protection, making it the fourth-largest corporate bankruptcy filing in American history. The immediate catalyst for t...
Lernout & Hauspie 2001 : Document Verification vs Physical Reality & Auditing Emerging Markets│File 112 T2 16.06.2026 20:08
This GP and LP institutional framework deconstructs the internal architecture of Lernout & Hauspie’s revenue fabrication engine. We isolate the circular financing structures where L&H acted simultaneously as the licensor, funder, and guaranteed buyer of its own technology applications. The analysis contrastingly maps this case against the cash circularization failures of Satyam and the agg...
Lernout & Hauspie 2001 : The Language Development Scam & The Flanders Valley Illusion│File 112 T1 16.06.2026 17:10
This narrative financial autopsy reconstructs the spectacular rise and multi-continental collapse of Lernout & Hauspie. We deconstruct the precise mechanics of the "Language Development Company" (LDC) network—a cluster of shell entities across Singapore and South Korea used to execute circular software licensing transactions funded by complicit investment arrangements. The episode tr...
LTCM Extended 1998 : The Too-Big-To-Fail Precedent & The Coordinated Risk Subsidy│File 111 T2 16.06.2026 19:21
This GP and LP institutional framework analyzes the systemic shadow cast by the 1998 intervention. We isolate the risk mechanics of distributed prime brokerage frameworks where no single counterparty possesses an aggregate ledger view. The analysis traces the regulatory progression from the post-crisis implementation of Dodd-Frank Form PF reporting down to the 2021 Archegos Capital Management liqu...
LTCM Extended 1998 : Inside the New York Fed Rescue Room & The Clearing Cascade│File 111 T1 16.06.2026 16:03
On September 23, 1998, the Federal Reserve Bank of New York deployed its convening authority to place fourteen of the world's largest financial institutions into a single room. The central bank possessed no explicit legal statute, regulatory mandate, or enforcement tool to compel private capital to recapitalize a distressed hedge fund. It simply presented the aggregate math. Each institution h...
Amaranth Advisors 2006 : The Return Concentration Risk & The Institutional Capture Framework│File 110 T2 15.06.2026 22:01
This institutional GP and LP analysis deconstructs the deep risk management dynamics of the Amaranth liquidation. We differentiate the structural mechanics of known position concentration from the classic asymmetric information models of rogue traders like Jérôme Kerviel or Nick Leeson. The episode delivers three precise operational signals visible in public and internal records before the Septemb...
Amaranth Advisors 2006 : The Scale Trap & The Illusion of Multi-Strategy Diversification│File 110 T1 15.06.2026 18:58
This narrative financial autopsy reconstructs the historic collapse of Amaranth Advisors, a multi-strategy hedge fund that concentrated more than eighty percent of its total returns into a single trader operating out of a remote satellite office in Calgary. We deconstruct the architecture of the natural gas winter-versus-summer calendar spreads that compressed by eighty percent in a single week. T...
Enron Valhalla 1987 : The Management Decision Layer & The Asymmetric Oversight Signals│File 109 T2 15.06.2026 20:52
This institutional GP and LP analysis untangles the deep management decision layer that created the environment where systemic manipulation could thrive. We examine the closed incentive loops where revenue-generating units operate under asymmetric oversight—producing financial results that the corporate layer cannot independently verify in real time. The episode delivers three concrete, historical...
Enron Valhalla 1987 : The Culture-Forming Fraud & The Performance-Protection Trap│File 109 T1 15.06.2026 19:07
In February 1987, fourteen years before Enron’s name became synonymous with the largest corporate bankruptcy in American history, its chief executive sat looking at an internal audit memo that detailed clear criminal misconduct. The president and treasurer of its highly profitable oil trading subsidiary in Valhalla, New York, had opened unauthorized bank accounts, altered bank statements, and tran...
Monte dei Paschi di Siena 2013-2022 : The 550-Year Longevity Paradox & The Sovereign-Adjacent Zombie Cycle│File 108 T1 14.06.2026 18:15
The institution had survived five and a half centuries of tumultuous European history. It outlasted the Black Death, the collapse of the Florentine Republic, the Napoleonic expansions, two devastating world wars, and the tectonic transition from the Italian lira to the euro. For thirty generations, it issued mortgages and held the deposits of Tuscany. What brought it to its knees was not a macroec...
Monte dei Paschi di Siena 2022: The Zombie Rescue Architecture & The Institutional Governance Risk│File 108 T2 14.06.2026 18:58
This institutional GP and LP analysis untangles the deep financial architecture of the Monte dei Paschi di Siena rescue cycle, defining the operational boundary between a standard zombie bank and a politically protected zombie rescue loop. We examine the closed incentive loops of municipal governance, where regional public spending was structurally tied to bank dividends, rendering rational commer...
Yes Bank 2020 : NPA Divergence Gaps, Connected Lending Risk & Underwriting Source Tests│GP/LP Analysis - 3 Red Flags│File 107 T2 14.06.2026 21:00
This technical GP/LP episode establishes a precise analytical framework for evaluating asset quality and promoter risk in corporate banking systems. We contrast Yes Bank's real-asset understatement mechanics with DHFL’s horizontal ghost borrower scaling (EP106) and Japan's LTCB structural evergreening system (EP103), demonstrating how personal executive incentives distort portfolio metrics...
Yes Bank 2020 : The Rana Kapoor NPA Understatement Cycle & The DHFL Quid Pro Quo│File 107 T1 14.06.2026 19:14
Yes Bank was founded in 2004 with an aggressive, relationship-driven mandate to bridge the gap in India's corporate credit market. Under the leadership of Rana Kapoor, the bank grew exponentially, expanding its loan book from 75,549 crore to over 241,400 crore rupees by 2019. However, this rapid asset expansion was sustained by a systemic loan misclassification architecture. While the bank con...
DHFL 2019 : NBFC Promoter Diversion Risk, Asset-Layer Opacity & Borrower Reality Tests │GP/LP Analysis - 3 Red Flags │File 106 T2 13.06.2026 20:30
This technical GP/LP episode provides a comprehensive diagnostic toolkit for underwriting asset-layer risk within shadow banking frameworks. We isolate the operational mechanics of horizontal scaling, demonstrating how a vast network of low-ticket individual mortgage records creates an opaque audit surface that traditional central auditing protocols fail to penetrate without account-level source t...
DHFL 2019 : The Ghost Borrower Mortgage Network & The $5B Bandra Books Diversion│File 106 T1 13.06.2026 18:53
Dewan Housing Finance Corporation (DHFL) was founded in 1984 on a powerful, noble premise: providing critical mortgage access to India's lower and middle-income families ignored by large commercial banks. For over thirty years, the firm built a massive retail credit empire. However, under the leadership of Kapil Wadhawan, the company’s field origination network—the very agents and branches des...
Satyam Computer Services 2009 : Internal Control Capture, ERP Forgeries & Direct Circularization Mechanics │GP/LP Analysis - 3 Red Flags │File 105 T2 13.06.2026 19:53
The operational architecture of multi-year accounting fraud relies heavily on Internal Control Capture—a systemic condition where management actively manipulates an enterprise control environment to produce fabricated transactional records that standard audit protocols accept as valid evidence. Rather than straightforward document forgery, internal control capture ensures that an auditor never rea...
Satyam / India 2009 : The 96-Hour National Security Rescue Operation & Hidden World Bank Track│File 105 T1 13.06.2026 16:34
By the morning of January 8, 2009, the Indian government faced an existential crisis with a strict 96-hour deadline: allow Satyam Computer Services, the country’s fourth-largest IT powerhouse, to collapse into disorderly insolvency or execute an unprecedented state-led intervention. With 53,000 employees facing a looming payroll and global Fortune 500 client contracts exposed to immediate change-o...
Daewoo 1999 : Implicit Guarantee Pricing Mechanics & Sovereign-Corporate Nexus Risk │GP/LP Analysis - 3 Red Flags │File 104 T2 12.06.2026 20:59
This GP/LP technical episode dissects the implicit guarantee mechanism as an active credit pricing variable. We analyze the corporate-sovereign nexus architecture, the structural properties of behavioral inferences, and how external conditionality under the 1997 IMF crisis forced a discontinuous shift in the government’s reaction function. We contrast this case with the Long-Term Credit Bank of Ja...
Daewoo 1999 : The Group Issued 27% of Korea’s Corporate Bonds in a Single Quarter. The Owner Believed It Was Too Big to Fail│File 104 T1 12.06.2026 16:50
In 1998, while the Asian financial crisis was dismantling the balance sheets of corporations across South Korea, Daewoo Group executed the opposite strategy of what standard credit cycles dictate. Instead of reducing leverage, cutting capital expenditures, or divesting non-core assets, founder Kim Woo-choong launched a massive 19.7 trillion won borrowing binge at crisis-driven interest rates rangi...
Long-Term Credit Bank of Japan 1998 : Evergreening Mechanics & NPL Disclosure Gaps │ GP/LP Analysis - 3 Red Flags│ File 103 T2 12.06.2026 20:18
This GP/LP technical episode analyzes the structural accounting mechanics of credit forbearance, contrasting LTCB’s asset-level evergreening cycles with the broker-side client loss absorption schemes of Yamaichi Securities. We isolate three institutional-grade red flags fully calculable from public filings and market transactions before the state intervention 🔴 Every corporate failure leaves behi...
Long-Term Credit Bank of Japan 1998 : The 5 Trillion Yen Zombie Lending Cycle and the Historic Postwar Nationalization│File 103 T1 12.06.2026 15:45
Founded by an explicit act of the Japanese Diet in 1952, the Long-Term Credit Bank of Japan (LTCB) was engineered to serve as a financial cornerstone of the nation’s postwar economic miracle, channeling long-term capital into strategically vital heavy industries, shipbuilders, and manufacturing conglomerates. Backed by the issuance of five-year debentures, it rose to become one of the ten largest...
Yamaichi Securities 1997 : Broker Tobashi vs Corporate Tobashi │GP/LP Analysis — 3 Red Flags│File 102 T2 11.06.2026 19:29
This GP/LP technical episode delivers a conceptual distinction between corporate tobashi—where an entity moves its own investment losses to offshore vehicles, as analyzed in Olympus Corporation—and broker tobashi, where an intermediary absorbs external counterparty losses to maintain relationship dominance. We isolate three institutional-grade red flags fully calculable from public market behavior...
Yamaichi Securities 1997 : The CEO's Tears, the Hidden Client Losses, and the Collapse of Japan's Relational Banking Culture│File 102 T1 11.06.2026 15:01
In November 1997, the president of Yamaichi Securities appeared on national television, bowed deeply, and wept openly as he announced the immediate closure of Japan's fourth-largest brokerage house. For a century-old institution managing billions in capital markets assets, this was not merely a corporate liquidation; it was the definitive structural break in the country's relational bankin...
Wirecard & BaFin 2020 : Regulatory Shields & National Champion Dynamics │GP/LP Analysis - 3 Red Flags │File 101 T2 11.06.2026 19:50
This GP/LP technical episode isolates the structural mechanics of regulatory capture, analyzing how BaFin's administrative interventions during the Wirecard crisis operated as a severe risk amplification variable. We contrast the sovereign defense loops seen in Germany with the cross-border jurisdiction arbitrage and corporate structures analyzed in previous multi-jurisdictional forensic autop...
Wirecard & BaFin 2020 : The Short-Selling Ban, the Financial Times Criminal Investigation, and the Regulator as a Fraud Shield│File 101 T1 11.06.2026 18:10
Within public capital markets and international regulatory perimeters, corporate oversight bodies are fundamentally designed to protect investors by exposing accounting irregularities and corporate malfeasance. Yet, in the catastrophic multi-billion-euro collapse of Germany's flagship fintech company Wirecard in June 2020, the primary regulatory authority executed a complete inversion of its i...
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