Sergio Stieben
Financial Forensics: The Due Diligence Files
Forensic dissection of capital markets collapses. Not headlines — mechanisms. How money moved. Where structures broke. T1 — Full autopsy. The collapse, the actors, the moment nobody stopped it. T2 — GP/LP room. 3 red flags in the documents. Due diligence questions. Active parallels in deals running today. For allocators, GPs, and fund professionals. Hosted by Sergio Stieben — 15 years in GP/LP relations, cross-border finance US-LatAm-Europe. Data Sheets + early access to LiveDealScreen — live case database and pattern-matching tool for GPs and LPs: https://risk-pattern-scan.lovable.app
Author
Sergio Stieben
Category
Podcast website
Latest episode
Jul 10, 2026
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Episodes
Archegos Regulatory Reform 2025: The Counterparty Credit Arithmetic & The Form PF Reporting Limits│File 125 T2 23.06.2026 16:52
This GP and LP institutional framework converts the multi-year Archegos regulatory response into an active asset-allocation due diligence model for credit committees and deal teams evaluating leveraged equity strategies today. We deconstruct three distinct signals embedded in the public and regulatory record that demonstrate how risk parameters move inversely to real credit quality. We map the pre...
Archegos Regulatory Reform 2025: The Total Return Swap Information Gap & The Rule 10B-1 Withdrawal│File 125 T1 23.06.2026 16:13
The rules changed. The regulators acted. The founder was convicted on ten counts and sentenced to eighteen years in prison. And yet, the core mechanism that made the multi-billion-dollar collapse possible—a private investment vehicle accumulating over a hundred billion dollars in concentrated equity exposure through total return swaps, with no obligation to report the aggregate position to any reg...
Wirecard Asia Collapse 2020: The Segment Profit Concentrations & The Intermediary Trust Verification Deficit│File 124 T2 22.06.2026 16:22
This GP and LP institutional framework converts the multi-year Wirecard Asia third-party acquiring collapse into an active asset-verification due diligence model for deal teams. We deconstruct three distinct signals embedded within the documentary and regulatory record that could have allowed credit analysts and institutional allocators to identify the cash fabrication long before the corporate un...
The Ghost Millions: Inside Wirecard’s Phantom Cash Empire│File 124 T1 22.06.2026 14:37
In June 2020, the catastrophic collapse of Wirecard AG shattered the regulatory environment of European fintech, marking the first DAX index constituent to ever dissolve into rapid insolvency. While institutional markets and public oversight bodies treated the digital payment processor as a high-growth technological juggernaut, the core engine of the firm was a ghost infrastructure operating acros...
Glencore Bribery Architecture 2022: The Sovereign Corruption Risk Vector & The Compliance Monitor Disclosures│File 123 T2 22.06.2026 16:38
This GP and LP institutional framework converts the multi-jurisdictional Glencore plc anti-bribery enforcement action into an active due diligence model for resource-sector allocators. We deconstruct three distinct signals embedded in the public and regulatory record that could have allowed institutional investors to identify the compliance breakdown long before the formal guilty pleas. We map sin...
Glencore Bribery Architecture 2022: The Third-Party Intermediary Vector & The Sham Consulting Invoices│File 123 T1 22.06.2026 17:01
The intermediary does not mine the copper. He does not sign the contract with the state-owned company. His name does not appear in the annual report, the prospectus, or the credit agreement. What he does is make a phone call, and for that phone call, he receives a payment that allows a government official to modify a signing bonus, award a multi-billion-dollar concession, or make a severe structur...
Abengoa Insolvency 2015: The Hybrid Bond Equity Illusion & The Project-Level Debt Concealment│File 122 T1 21.06.2026 15:15
In November 2015, the pre-insolvency filing of Abengoa S.A. marked one of the largest corporate collapses in European financial history, shaking the international renewable energy sector. While global observers and public narratives celebrated the Seville-based multinational as a pioneering model for the clean energy transition, the underlying business was structural leverage disguised in plain si...
Abengoa Insolvency 2015 : The Accounting vs Economic Leverage & Off-Balance-Sheet Liquidity Risks│File 122 T2 21.06.2026 15:43
This GP and LP institutional framework converts the 2015 Abengoa pre-insolvency collapse into an active counterparty due diligence model for credit and equity allocators. We deconstruct three distinct signals embedded in the public financial record that could have allowed investment committees to identify the leverage mismatch long before the systemic freeze. We map the widening gap between stated...
Colonial BancGroup Collapse 2009: The Warehouse Asset Aging Anomalies & The Circular Audit Confirmation Deficit│File 121 T2 21.06.2026 17:19
This GP and LP institutional framework converts the multi-year Colonial BancGroup and Taylor, Bean & Whitaker failure into an active due diligence model for credit facilities. We deconstruct three distinct signals embedded in the regulatory and operational record that could have allowed institutional investors to identify the collateral breakdown before the FDIC intervention. We map single-cou...
Colonial BancGroup Collapse 2009: The Fictitious Mortgage Kiting & The Lender-Borrower Bilateral Collusion│File 121 T1 21.06.2026 15:50
In August 2009, the collapse of Colonial BancGroup marked the largest banking failure of the year, costing the FDIC deposit insurance fund an estimated two point eight billion dollars. While external analysts attributed the bank’s insolvency to standard real estate losses in its commercial and construction loan portfolio, the core driver was a massive, multi-billion-dollar fraudulent conspiracy op...
Sunbeam Corporation Turnaround 1998: The Financial Accrual Ratios & Distressed Company Compensation Mismatch│File 120 T2 20.06.2026 18:23
This GP and LP institutional framework converts the 1998 Sunbeam Corporation accounting scandal into an active capital markets risk assessment model. We analyze three distinct arithmetic signals derivable entirely from the public 10-K filing that could have warned allocators of systemic manipulation long before the board terminated management. We calculate the days sales outstanding (DSO) expansio...
Sunbeam Corporation Turnaround 1998: The Cookie Jar Accounting & The Phantom Bill-and-Hold Surge│File 120 T1 20.06.2026 16:00
In July 1996, the board of directors of Sunbeam Corporation hired Albert Dunlap, a corporate restructuring specialist famously nicknamed "Chainsaw Al" due to his aggressive cost-cutting methods. Within months, Dunlap executed a brutal operational overhaul: closing eighteen of twenty-six manufacturing plants, firing half of the twelve-thousand-person workforce, and shrinking the legacy pr...
Comverse Technology Backdating 2006: The Form 4 Asymmetric Signals & Compensation Governance Due Diligence│File 119 T2 20.06.2026 21:19
This GP and LP institutional framework converts the 2006 Comverse Technology backdating scandal into an active corporate governance due diligence model. We isolate three specific, highly visible risk signals embedded directly within the public SEC Form 4 filings that allocators could have utilized to identify the manipulation years before federal regulators intervened. We deconstruct the relations...
Comverse Technology Backdating 2006: The Impossible Statistical Luck & The Phantom Employee Option Pool│File 119 T1 20.06.2026 19:02
This narrative financial autopsy deconstructs the structural collapse of Comverse Technology, the definitive case study that turned an academic paper into a massive federal criminal investigation. We map the precise mechanism utilized by founder and CEO Kobi Alexander, Chief Financial Officer David Kreinberg, and General Counsel William Sorin to systematically alter corporate records and manipulat...
Societe Generale Rights Issue 2008: The Disclosure Sequencing Framework & Market Authorization Boundaries│File 118 T2 19.06.2026 18:29
This GP and LP institutional framework converts the 2008 Societe Generale capital raise into an active capital markets due diligence model. We analyze the structural logic of the AMF's authorization that allowed SocGen to execute a secret three-day unwinding, examining the unformulable macro questions that left institutional asset allocators trading on incomplete signals. Finally, we map three...
Societe Generale Rights Issue 2008: The Corporate Disclosure Sequence & The 50-Billion Secret Liquidation│File 118 T1 19.06.2026 18:32
This narrative financial autopsy deconstructs the corporate decision-making sequence at Societe Generale between January 19 and January 24, 2008. We map how management, in coordination with the Governor of the Bank of France and the AMF, secured authorization to force-sell tens of billions in index futures into declining global markets while hiding the liquidation from the public. The episode expo...
Bear Stearns Hedge Funds 2007: The Legal Asset Mark Verification & Illiquid Credit Due Diligence Framework│File 117 T2 19.06.2026 20:28
This GP and LP institutional framework converts the 2007 Bear Stearns hedge fund failure into an active counterparty due diligence model. We isolate three specific risk signals present within the public record long before the systemic freeze, evaluating the critical disclosure gaps embedded in over-the-counter credit instruments. The analysis details how post-crisis standards like SEC Rule 2a-5 an...
Bear Stearns Hedge Funds 2007: The NAV Misrepresentation Mechanism & The Personal Account Redemption Gap│File 117 T1 19.06.2026 18:55
In the summer of 2007, the collapse of two flagship Bear Stearns structured credit vehicles marked the functional prologue to the global financial crisis. While the broader market interpreted the event as a generic subprime mortgage write-down, the structural failure was driven by an operational information gap between private internal portfolio assessments and public net asset value reports. 🔴 E...
Countrywide Financial 2007 : The Early Payment Default Signal & Risk Retention Frameworks│File 116 T2 18.06.2026 20:54
This GP and LP institutional framework converts the 2007 Countrywide collapse into an actionable asset risk model. We evaluate the self-amplifying credit destruction built into volume-driven lending platforms that transfer risk to the secondary market. The analysis cross-references Washington Mutual's product design vulnerabilities against Countrywide's upstream originator incentive archit...
Countrywide Financial 2007 : The Originate-to-Distribute Incentive & The Mozilo Insider Liquidations│File 116 T1 18.06.2026 19:56
This financial autopsy untangles the structural misalignment that transformed volume production into an institutional imperative at the expense of balance sheet survival. We examine the operational mechanics of the pay-option adjustable-rate mortgage, mapping how negative amortization and teaser rate resets engineered an inescapable payment shock for borrowers. The episode dissects the timeline of...
Kaupthing Singer & Friedlander 2008 : The Legal Entity Due Diligence & Sovereign Fiscal Capacity Outflows│File 115 T2 18.06.2026 17:38
This GP and LP institutional framework converts the 2008 Kaupthing Singer and Friedlander collapse into an active counterparty due diligence model. We isolate three specific risk signals present within the public record long before the systemic freeze, evaluating the critical information asymmetries built into the Basel home-host supervisor frameworks. The analysis details how the European Banking...
Kaupthing Singer & Friedlander 2008 : The Branch vs Subsidiary Perimeter & The Isle of Man Expatriate Run│File 115 T1 18.06.2026 17:28
In October 2008, three major Icelandic banking institutions—Kaupthing, Landsbanki, and Glitnir—collapsed under the weight of an expanded wholesale balance sheet measuring ten times the sovereign's annual gross domestic product. While public attention centered on state-level interventions, individual retail depositors faced wildly divergent financial outcomes depending entirely on the legal arc...
Anglo Irish Bank 2008 : The Property Concentration Index & Wholesale Funding Vulnerability│File 114 T2 17.06.2026 20:40
This GP and LP institutional framework converts the 2008 Anglo Irish collapse into an actionable asset risk model. We evaluate the self-amplifying credit destruction built into equity-backed share support loans. The analysis cross-references Countrywide's residential originate-to-distribute securitization stress against Anglo’s retained relationship lending structure, tracking the subsequent r...
Anglo Irish Bank 2008 : The Quinn CFD Conversion & The Blanket Nationalization│File 114 T1 17.06.2026 18:07
By mid-2007, Anglo Irish Bank was celebrated as a global best-in-class financial institution, generating exceptional returns through aggressive commercial real estate concentrations. Behind the scenes, industrialist Sean Quinn had built an undisclosed twenty-five percent economic stake in the bank utilizing complex contracts for difference (CFDs). When the property bubble cracked and the derivativ...
Refco & BAWAG 2005 : The Deficiency Notation Loophole & Related-Party Verification│File 113 T2 17.06.2026 20:48
This GP and LP institutional framework deconstructs the systemic verification gaps exposed by the 2005 Refco collapse. We examine three clear red flags present within the public filings, dissecting the structural differences between Tyco's captured board loan approvals and Refco's complete governance bypass. The analysis tracks how the Sarbanes-Oxley control certifications failed to preven...
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