Sergio Stieben
Financial Forensics: The Due Diligence Files
Forensic dissection of capital markets collapses. Not headlines — mechanisms. How money moved. Where structures broke. T1 — Full autopsy. The collapse, the actors, the moment nobody stopped it. T2 — GP/LP room. 3 red flags in the documents. Due diligence questions. Active parallels in deals running today. For allocators, GPs, and fund professionals. Hosted by Sergio Stieben — 15 years in GP/LP relations, cross-border finance US-LatAm-Europe. Data Sheets + early access to LiveDealScreen — live case database and pattern-matching tool for GPs and LPs: https://risk-pattern-scan.lovable.app
Author
Sergio Stieben
Category
Podcast website
Latest episode
Jul 10, 2026
Where to listen?
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Episodes
Washington Mutual 2008 : The $307 Billion Mortgage Machine and the Largest Bank Failure in US History│File 100 T1 10.06.2026 17:24
Founded in 1889 to rebuild Seattle after its devastating Great Fire, Washington Mutual grew over eleven decades from a conservative, community-focused thrift into a multi-state financial powerhouse. Yet, in September 2008, this storied institution earned a dark distinction in capital markets history: the largest corporate banking failure in the United States. 🔴 FFL Case Library is Live The FFL Ca...
Washington Mutual 2008 : Product Engineering & Origination Incentives │GP/LP Analysis - 3 Red Flags │ File 100 T2 10.06.2026 19:19
This GP/LP technical episode delivers an architectural dissection of the structural flaws embedded within high-yield mortgage origination platforms, contrasting WaMu’s internal product risks with the off-balance-sheet conduit mechanisms examined in IKB Deutsche Industriebank. We isolate three institutional-grade red flags fully calculable from public regulatory filings and securitization data pool...
IKB Deutsche Industriebank 2007 : Sponsored Conduits & Off-Balance-Sheet Arbitrage │GP/LP Analysis — 3 Red Flags │File 99 T2 10.06.2026 18:12
This GP/LP technical episode analyzes the credit and liquidity architecture of Asset-Backed Commercial Paper programs, contrasting IKB’s hidden conduit guarantees with the physical and intangible asset vulnerabilities analyzed in previous industrial episodes. We isolate three institutional-grade red flags fully calculable from public regulatory filings and conduit prospectuses long before the syst...
IKB Deutsche Industriebank 2007 : The €9.3 Billion Rhineland Conduit Collapse and the First European Subprime Casualty│File 99 T1 10.06.2026 18:06
Founded in 1924 to finance the industrial recovery of the German Mittelstand, IKB Deutsche Industriebank stood for over eighty years as a conservative pillar of corporate lending, supporting the factories, machinery, and exporters that drove the nation's economic miracle. Yet, in July 2007—fourteen months before the historic bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers—this specialized institution became the...
FlowTex Technology 2000 : Collateral Audits & Asset-Backed Lease Verifications │GP/LP Analysis - 3 Red Flags│File 98 T2 09.06.2026 19:29
This GP/LP technical episode analyzes the structural credit mechanics of equipment finance, contrasting FlowTex’s physical asset fabrications with the external trade receivables engineering seen in Balsam AG. We isolate three institutional-grade red flags fully calculable from public and operational records before the regulatory shutdown 🔴 Every corporate failure leaves behind a pattern. FFL Risk...
FlowTex Technology 2000 : The 4.9 Billion Mark Sale-Leaseback Fraud and the Phantom Physical Assets Architecture│File 98 T1 09.06.2026 15:21
Within the asset-backed financing sector, horizontal directional drilling systems have long been considered premier industrial collateral due to their high residual value and specialized utility in underground infrastructure deployment. Leveraging this operational credibility, Manfred Schmider built FlowTex Technology in Baden-Württemberg into an apparent global champion, displaying perfect docume...
Balsam AG 1994 : Receivables Verification & Trade Factoring Exposure │GP/LP Analysis - 3 Red Flags │File 97 T2 09.06.2026 17:23
This GP/LP technical episode analyzes the credit mechanics of invoice finance, contrasting Balsam’s external asset fabrications with the multi-jurisdictional intercompany perimeters of Steinhoff International. We isolate three institutional-grade red flags fully calculable from the public record prior to the insolvency filing: 🔴 Every corporate failure leaves behind a pattern. FFL Risk Pattern Sc...
Balsam AG 1994 : The World's Largest Sports Surface Manufacturer and the 1.8 Billion Mark Factoring Snowball│File 97 T1 09.06.2026 15:35
By the late 1980s, Westphalian family Mittelstand company Balsam AG had established undisputed world market leadership in industrial sports surface manufacturing. Its synthetic tracks floored Olympic Games stadiums, its artificial turf covered World Cup football venues, and its aggressive strategy of undercutting competitors led to the acquisition of twenty-four rivals. Yet, beneath this global ch...
Steinhoff International 2017 : Audit Perimeters & Fraud Perimeters │ GP/LP Analysis — 4 Red Flags │ File 96 T2 08.06.2026 19:08
This GP/LP technical episode provides an architectural dissection of Steinhoff's cross-border fraudulent mechanics, detailing how intermediary holding companies utilized connected entities—such as Campion-Fulcrum, Talgarth, and the TG group—to simulate arm's-length commercial revenue. We isolate four institutional-grade red flags embedded within the group's public regulatory filings lo...
Steinhoff International 2017 : The €6.5 Billion Fictitious Accounting Black Hole and the Retail Empire Collapse│File 96 T1 08.06.2026 16:00
In December 2017, Steinhoff International—the second-largest furniture retailer in Europe after IKEA—stunned international capital markets when its high-profile Chief Executive Officer, Markus Jooste, abruptly resigned amidst severe accounting irregularities. Within three frantic trading days, the retail giant's stock price collapsed by more than ninety percent, wiping out approximately ten bi...
Hypo Alpe Adria 2014 : The Carinthian Sovereign Liability Paradox and the Defective Eurozone Bail-Out│File 95 T1 08.06.2026 14:59
In December 2013, Slovenia executed a comprehensive bail-in that completely wiped out junior debt holders and forced heavy losses on senior bank creditors. Just months later, across the border, Austria orchestrated a massive rescue operation to shield the guaranteed bondholders of Hypo Alpe Adria. This deep financial autopsy reveals that this structural discrepancy was not a philosophical policy s...
Hypo Alpe Adria 2014 : Subnational Guarantees & Sovereign Backstops │ GP/LP Analysis - 3 Red Flags │File 95 T2 08.06.2026 16:05
This GP/LP technical analysis provides a comprehensive structural autopsy of the Hypo Alpe Adria bank resolution framework, exposing how a legally binding subnational deficiency guarantee completely overrides standard European Union Bank Recovery and Resolution Directive mechanics. While traditional bank credit files frequently treat provincial government backing as an unmodeled political footnote...
Nortel Networks 2009: IP Allocations & Cross-Border Insolvency Treaties │ GP/LP Analysis - 3 Red Flags│File 94 T2 07.06.2026 16:37
This GP/LP technical episode analyzes the structural architecture of cross-border insolvency treaties, contrasting the intangible asset traps of Nortel with the physical hard-asset currency mismatches of Cresud and IRSA. We isolate three institutional-grade red flags hidden within the corporate structure and public regulatory filing disclosures before the 2009 collapse: ,🔴 FFL Case Library is Liv...
Nortel Networks 2009 : The $4.5 Billion Patent Auction and the Tragic Cross-Border Liquidation Queue│File 94 T1 07.06.2026 16:29
In the year 2000, Nortel Networks was the undisputed crown jewel of Canada's technology sector, commanding a peak market capitalization of three hundred and sixty-six billion dollars and accounting for over thirty-five percent of the entire Toronto Stock Exchange index. Yet, by January 2009, the telecom giant filed for protection under Chapter Eleven in the United States, the CCAA in Canada, a...
Cresud & IRSA 2002 : Currency Mismatch & Fixed Peg Stress-Testing │GP/LP Analysis - 3 Red Flags │File 93 T2 07.06.2026 16:52
This GP/LP technical episode analyzes the credit underwriting mechanics of managed currency regimes, contrasting private corporate balance sheet desynchronization with the sovereign rollover exit traps analyzed in EP50. We isolate three institutional-grade red flags fully discernible within the SEC and NYSE public filings long before the currency board's abandonment:🔴 🔴 Every corporate failu...
Cresud & IRSA 2002 : The Hard Asset Illusion and the $590 Million Dollar-Peso Convertibility Leverage Trap│File 93 T1 07.06.2026 16:30
Cresud IRSA Argentina default 2002, Eduardo Elsztain George Soros real estate, currency convertibility plan collapse Cavallo, dollar debt peso asset mismatch structural, commercial property rental income devaluation, prime agricultural land portfolio pampas, Alto Palermo shopping center acquisition financing, 🔴 Every corporate failure leaves behind a pattern. FFL Risk Pattern Scan provides access...
NMC Health 2020 : Reverse Factoring Mechanics & Hidden Debt Reclassification │GP/LP Analysis - 3 Red Flags│File 92 T2 06.06.2026 17:35
This GP/LP technical episode analyzes the structural architecture of accounting reclassifications, contrasting NMC’s balance sheet manipulations with the multi-layered related-party cascades of Banco Espírito Santo. We isolate three institutional-grade red flags fully calculable from NMC's public accounts before the short-seller report 🔴 Every corporate failure leaves behind a pattern. FFL Ri...
NMC Health 2020 : The $4 Billion Undisclosed Debt Failure and the Anatomy of a Big Four Audit Collapse│File 92 T1 06.06.2026 15:18
This is the financial autopsy of the historic NMC Health insolvency, the largest ever healthcare administration in the United Kingdom. We dissect the three distinct, hidden instruments that formed this architecture of concealment: the misclassification of reverse factoring programs as operational liabilities, the orchestration of billions in undisclosed borrowing facilities without board approval,...
Banco Espírito Santo 2014 : The Five-Layer Holding Cascade and the €3.6 Billion Single-Quarter Capital Collapse│File 91 T1 06.06.2026 16:52
Banco Espirito Santo collapse 2014, Ricardo Salgado banking scandal, Espirito Santo International debt migration, European Single Supervisory Mechanism resolution, Novo Banco Portugal bailout taxpayer cost, related party exposure accounting illusion, Rioforte Investments holding structure chain, Espirito Santo Financial Group ESFG, 🔴 Every corporate failure leaves behind a pattern. FFL Risk Patte...
Banco Espírito Santo 2014 : Related-Party Cascades & Holding Chain Due Diligence GP/LP Analysis - 3 Red Flags│File 91 T2 06.06.2026 16:06
This GP/LP technical episode analyzes the structural architecture of related-party cascades within private holding networks, contrasting the bottom-up asset extraction seen in BES with the top-down sovereign-directed lending mechanisms of Banco Nación Argentina. We isolate three institutional-grade red flags embedded in the public filings and regulatory disclosures weeks before the bank's reso...
Banco Nación Argentina 2001 : The Largest Sovereign Lender Operating as a Hidden Fiscal Instrument│File 90 T1 05.06.2026 14:00
default 2001, state directed credit risk, provincial deficit financing mechanisms, banking collapse convertibility law, fiscal deficit off balance sheet, public sector liability migration, federal tax coparticipation collateral, commercial bank deposit exposure, sovereign debt crisis Argentinacurrency board credit contraction, state owned enterprise banking, 🔴 Every corporate failure leaves behin...
Banco Nación Argentina 2001 : Quasi-Fiscal Transmissions & Directed Lending Architecture │GP/LP Analysis - 3 Red Flags│File 90 T2 05.06.2026 15:38
This GP/LP technical episode breaks down the precise transmission mechanisms of quasi-fiscal subsidies through state-owned banking channels, isolating how Banco de la Nación Argentina functioned as a primary liquidity buffer for non-market public sector debt. We analyze the structural parallel to the systemic sovereign-bank loops seen in historical emerging market crises, contrasting Lebanon’s cir...
Metalclad Corporation 1997 : Federal Permits, Municipal Blockades, and the Cactus Decree That Cost Mexico $16.7 Million│File 89 T1 05.06.2026 17:19
This is the financial autopsy of the landmark Metalclad arbitration, the first investor-state dispute under NAFTA Chapter Eleven to rule that a sovereign government’s environmental regulation can constitute an act of indirect expropriation. We dissect the full jurisdictional paradox: how federal authorization, state ambiguity, and municipal resistance clashed, and why an international tribunal in...
Metalclad Corporation 1997 : Regulatory Taking Framework & Political Risk Disconnect │GP/LP Analysis - 3 Red Flags│File 89 T2 05.06.2026 15:56
This GP/LP technical episode breaks down the sovereign liability architecture of NAFTA's Article 1110 and dissects the specific mechanisms cross-border infrastructure funds must audit to survive. We analyze the structural parallel to the Micula vs. Romania ISDS case, contrasting competing international treaty obligations with Metalclad’s direct clash between international treaty protections an...
Autonomy Corporation 2011 : The CEO Was Fired Before the Deal Closed. Then They Wrote an $8.8 Billion Dollar Check│File 88 T1 04.06.2026 15:05
This financial autopsy dissects the catastrophic M&A due diligence failure that allowed a software company's revenue composition to remain unverified until after the capital was deployed. We trace the core mechanism: how Autonomy reported eighty-seven percent gross margins and forty-three percent operating margins by masking negative-margin hardware sales as pure software revenue. This har...
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