Eurodollar University

Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_AIP https://www.eurodollar.university https://www.marketsinsiderpro.com https://www. PortfolioShield.net RealClearMarkets Essays: https://bit.ly/38tL5a7 THE EPISODES YouTube: https://bit.ly/310yisL Vurbl: https://bit.ly/3rq4dPn Apple: https://apple.co/3czMcWN Deezer: https://bit.ly/3ndoVPE iHeart: https://ih...

Something big is happening in oil. A crucial physical commodity which actually does intersect with the real economy and it is totally blowing up the soft landing/no landing economy. Yet, the stock market is all over...rate hikes? Sorting signal from more-than-usual noise. Eurodollar University's Conversation w/Steve Van Metre Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_AIP https://www.eurodollar.unive...

Incomes are the key to the whole thing. While many keep claiming the economy is staying way too hot, this big miss shows you why it never once was and right now recession not inflation needs to be your biggest concern. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_AIP https://www.eurodollar.university https://www.marketsinsiderpro.com https://www. Portf...

Global markets and curves are epically upset about something. What is it? A number of nasty macro scenarios are together the most obvious answer, hardly the only one. Nothing makes markets hedge faster and harder than a combination of serious global recession, more dollar shortage, each leading to political instability in a certain part of the world.  Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Anal...

Renewed Fed hawkishness along with resurgent macro optimism ("no landing") all of it based on payrolls, the unemployment rate, even retail sales. History conclusively shows this isn't just a mistake, it is a massive one. Markets obviously concur.  Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_AIP https://www.eurodollar.university https://www.marketsinsi...

Amidst renewed optimism, growing confidence the recession risks have all be surmounted, the one company who knows better and should be really booming is not. Walmart's earnings report was another warning which won't be heeded during this "no landing" phase of the cycle which picked up another one.  Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis Walmart Releases Q4 and FY23 Earnings https://cor...

There was never a liquidity trap, just the lie about liquidity leaving us in 2023 facing the same destructive money trap. For ten years the Bank of Japan had done what Paul Krugman had urged from the late 90s, yet only a couple years into it even Krugman was left looking for a scapegoat.  Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis Paul Krugman Thinking about the liquidity trap http://web.m...

We always hesitate to use 2008 comparisons because history never repeats exactly. While there won't be another Lehman Brothers and no one is plagued by subprime mortgages, there are serious dollar woes along with a growing number of eerie economic similarities which do justify taking a look.  Eurodollar University's Weekly Conversations, featuring Steve Van Metre Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffS...

China reopening is said to be robust and inspiring, the stuff of soft landings even reignited "inflation." The evidence increasingly points instead to quite the opposite, including several key indications which unmistakably show China and global trade might be crashing if it hasn't already. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_AIP https://www.e...

What if the economy is the proverbial boiling frog? But rather than the temperature of the water in the pot increasing slowly all the time, it goes up and then just when the frog begins to notice, it falls back a little only to repeat the process several times before the boil. How would we know what the water temperature is and what it is really doing? We have tools.  Eurodollar University's Money...

The unemployment rate since June has fallen a few tenths more than the already low number it started with. Payrolls have added millions in those seven months. So how could the CPI have gone from nightmare inflationary to outright disinflationary at the same time?  Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_AIP https://www.eurodollar.university https:...

The fatal flaw is deeply embedded, even within the language we use to describe CPIs. We are wrongly led to believe consumer prices reflect the economy, when in truth those over the past few years have been set by a litany of non-economics. Before examining the US CPI for January '23, we discuss the one case which establishes beyond any doubt this error.  Eurodollar University's Money & Macro A...

China reopening, media rather than money blitz. Bank lending has been hyped though as usual the rest of the story - the important parts - get left out for the narrative. The reopening impulse just isn't there, and we can verify that it isn't just by doing the full money math.  Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_AIP https://www.eurodollar.univ...

If the dollar has lost 97% of its value, then why had the world prospered so much during that time when it did? The answer provides tremendous insight into several fallacies about the global currency arrangement, even a window into current age of so much "sudden" and "unexpected" geopolitical balloon-based instability.  Eurodollar University's Weekly Conversation, featuring Steve Van Metre https:/...

Interest rate Thunderdome. What appears to be the short end versus the long end, or the longer-term rates against the Fed, the continued surge in layoffs once again shows it is actually the Fed vs. the Fed. Two Jays enter, one Jay leaves. And we know which one.  Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_AIP https://www.eurodollar.university https://...

Resurgent gasoline prices have some thinking about "transitory disinflation." That the improvement in consumer price pressures won't last because of the same supply factors which drove those in the first place. Supply is the wrong focus, however, as a number of indications point instead to radically weakening demand. Not just for gasoline. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis Twitter...

Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis SLOOS https://www.federalreserve.gov/data/sloos/sloos-202301.htm April 2008 FOMC Transcript https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/files/FOMC20080430meeting.pdf Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_AIP https://www.eurodollar.university https://www.marketsinsiderpro.com https://www. PortfolioShield.net RealClearMarkets Essays: https://bit...

Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis Stock & Watson; Has the Business Cycle Changed and Why? https://www.nber.org/papers/w9127 Bernanke; The Great Moderation https://www.federalreserve.gov/boarddocs/speeches/2004/20040220/ Bernanke; Reflections on the Yield Curve and Monetary Policy https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/bernanke20060320a.htm Twitter: https://twitter.co...

Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Conversation, with Steve Van Metre Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_AIP https://www.eurodollar.university https://www.marketsinsiderpro.com https://www. PortfolioShield.net RealClearMarkets Essays: https://bit.ly/38tL5a7 THE EPISODES YouTube: https://bit.ly/310yisL Vurbl: https://bit.ly/3rq4dPn Apple: https://apple.co/3czMcWN Deezer: https://bit.ly/...

Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_AIP https://www.eurodollar.university https://www.marketsinsiderpro.com https://www. PortfolioShield.net RealClearMarkets Essays: https://bit.ly/38tL5a7 THE EPISODES YouTube: https://bit.ly/310yisL Vurbl: https://bit.ly/3rq4dPn Apple: https://apple.co/3czMcWN Deezer: https://bit.ly/3ndoVPE iHeart: https://ih...

Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis Dow, S&P break records; CNN https://money.cnn.com/2007/10/09/markets/markets_0500/ Fed explains the big rate cut; CNN https://money.cnn.com/2007/10/09/news/economy/fed_minutes_analysis/index.htm?postversion=2007100914 Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_AIP https://www.eurodollar.university https://www.marketsinsiderpro.com https://www. Po...

Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_AIP https://www.eurodollar.university https://www.marketsinsiderpro.com https://www. PortfolioShield.net RealClearMarkets Essays: https://bit.ly/38tL5a7 THE EPISODES YouTube: https://bit.ly/310yisL Vurbl: https://bit.ly/3rq4dPn Apple: https://apple.co/3czMcWN Deezer: https://bit.ly/3ndoVPE iHeart: https://ih...

Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_AIP https://www.eurodollar.university https://www.marketsinsiderpro.com https://www. PortfolioShield.net RealClearMarkets Essays: https://bit.ly/38tL5a7 THE EPISODES YouTube: https://bit.ly/310yisL Vurbl: https://bit.ly/3rq4dPn Apple: https://apple.co/3czMcWN Deezer: https://bit.ly/3ndoVPE iHeart: https://ih...

Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_AIP https://www.eurodollar.university https://www.marketsinsiderpro.com https://www. PortfolioShield.net RealClearMarkets Essays: https://bit.ly/38tL5a7 THE EPISODES YouTube: https://bit.ly/310yisL Vurbl: https://bit.ly/3rq4dPn Apple: https://apple.co/3czMcWN Deezer: https://bit.ly/3ndoVPE iHeart: https://ih...

Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_AIP https://www.eurodollar.university https://www.marketsinsiderpro.com https://www. PortfolioShield.net RealClearMarkets Essays: https://bit.ly/38tL5a7 THE EPISODES YouTube: https://bit.ly/310yisL Vurbl: https://bit.ly/3rq4dPn Apple: https://apple.co/3czMcWN Deezer: https://bit.ly/3ndoVPE iHeart: https://ih...