Eurodollar University

Everyone is talking about rate hikes and hot inflation. Yesterday’s CPI was supposedly another reason to sell Treasuries. Today’s PPI was supposed to confirm it. Yields initially surged, commentators dusted off the usual higher-for-longer clichés, and the Federal Reserve’s imagined war against inflation was once again declared the only story that mattered. Then the bond market rejected the entire...

Everyone thinks the private-credit “crisis” is contained. Bank officials say the financial system remains resilient. Central bankers barely mention private credit. And when the mainstream media covers the subject, the story is usually reduced to investor withdrawals from a handful of isolated funds. And then we’re told the underlying loans are still performing, so there’s nothing broader to worry...

Paul Tudor Jones is a legendary investor who made a fortune betting against the stock market during the 1987 crash. And now, almost 40 years later, he's just announced that he plans to short the stock market for the entirety of 2027. But here's what makes this particularly interesting. He actually thinks stocks could go even higher before the market turns. And that's exactly what should concern in...

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Everyone is looking in the wrong place for clues about the economy. Investors are poring over every last detail of artificial intelligence—data centers, semiconductor shipments, electricity demand, and the supposedly limitless need for copper. But copper is increasingly distorted. Its price may tell us something about the economy of the distant future, at most supply problems in the present. Iron...

American consumers just did two things that you might think are completely incompatible. In August, they cut revolving credit at the same time, consumers added a huge amount of non-revolving credit. So households backed away from credit cards while splurging on installment debt. How can consumers be terrified of borrowing and eager to borrow at exactly the same time? Because these aren’t contradic...

Learn how to spot the next major economic shift—and position your portfolio for it: https://go.eurodollar-university.com/oct8-fu9u The world’s most powerful oil insiders are issuing an unusually direct warning about energy stocks. It might sound like a warning that gas stations are about to run dry, 1979-style. But that isn’t necessarily what happens, or what the greatest concern really is. The bi...

Jamie Dimon just issued another warning about interest rates. JPMorgan's CEO says there is a risk inflation remains sticky—and that interest rates go up from here. That sounds like caution about staying away from Treasury bonds. But Jamie Dimon’s prediction isn’t necessarily what you think. Because, right now, the bond market may be approaching a turning point and Dimon's comments fit right in wit...

Blue Owl is still getting hit with enormous redemption requests—even as the private-credit giant continues to insist that the underlying loans remain resilient. When investors repeatedly ask for their money back denials just doesn’t work. Just look at the stock prices of some of these publicly traded credit funds, no one believes the industry’s spin any longer.  Because Blue Owl isn’t the only war...

Jobs report for September completely reverses August's. The ugly headline is only the start given the vastly more important implications which connect jobs to incomes and then everything else from the Fed, bond yields and the inflation debate, which the data shows isn't one. But why do officials hold out anyway? The numbers answer that question, too.  Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Anal...

Credit spreads have exploded in recent weeks, and not just the triple hooks. It has spread to other parts of the public market. And now that September has finished up, we might finally get more fundamental trading in USTs. Part (much?) of the recent selloff has been, well, three September effects. I'll explain what those are/were and what that might mean. It did for Oct 1. Eurodollar University's...

You would think this would be McDonald’s moment.  When household budgets are under pressure, when consumers are trading down, and when price suddenly means everything, McDonald’s should be thriving. It's not. This isn’t happening in isolation. Consumer confidence plunged – and I mean plunged - in September to its lowest level since 2014—and that’s according to the Conference Board, typically the m...

A leaked S-1 that filled in a lot of missing pieces. Maybe, for Anthropic and the AI bubble, too much. The upshot is...this time is never different. Plus, we really have to hope this sucker pops soon. Letting this thing go much longer risks much more than stocks.  Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------- W...

Just months after PepsiCo slashed prices by as much as 15% to win back cash-strapped shoppers, the company is preparing to **raise** them again. The cuts were supposed to revive demand after prices for some bags of chips climbed above seven dollars. But they didn’t work. In July, the company admitted consumers were under even more strain than expected. Now Pepsi is trapped. And Pepsi isn’t alone.....

The Treasury market is doing something it has only done on 5.4% of the time over the last 36-plus years. In broad terms, the yield curve is unusually steep at the front and unusually flat at the back. Put those two together and it makes this rare combination, which means it is telling us something very important but also very specific.  Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis ----------...

India just attracted an extraordinary amount of foreign money into its banking system. And yet the rupee is moving back toward its record low. Then there’s Japan. The Bank of Japan just raised its policy rate to the highest since 1995. And yet the yen is approaching 160 per dollar again. So India attracted dollars and the rupee still fell. Japan raised rates and the yen still fell. Meanwhile, Chin...

If you follow the financial headlines, you probably think investors are preparing to dump Treasuries and head for the inflationary hawkish hills. The Federal Reserve just raised rates, and officials definitely want to do it again. And yes, one part of the Treasury market is pricing exactly that.  But the market as a whole is doing something very different. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro...

Demand destruction is simply becoming impossible to ignore—and it’s appearing across the global economy at exactly the wrong moment. Just look at Mexico. And what airlines are doing. Or S&P 500's consumer discretionary stocks. Housing... Eurodollar University's conversation w/Steve Van Metre ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------- What if your gold co...

We need to begin seriously considering what would happen if diesel reaches eight, nine, or even ten dollars per gallon. That is not a prediction. It is not clickbait, nor is it fearmongering.  This is scenario planning - because it's getting real.  Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------- What if your gold...

Private credit defaults have officially reached a record. According to Fitch Ratings, the default rate rose to 6.3% in August, exceeding the previous record set only one month earlier. But the most important number may not be 6.3%. It may be Fitch's 45%. And that reveals the bigger story, one about liquidity and tightening.  Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis ----------------------...

It's FOMC decision day. The data says do nothing. Flat curves say mistake. The inflation data doesn't say what hawks think it does. Do policymakers send a message and Trichet themselves? What about the dots? Where do rates go?

A relatively small German cooperative bank is receiving a financial rescue, a bail out, worth as much. The bank, Volksbank Brawo, had €6.5 billion in total assets at the end of last year. It's support package is equivalent to roughly one-ninth of the entire bank. But Brawo isn’t alone. Volksbank Kleverland recently applied for support after reviewing its loan portfolio. WTF is going on in Germany?...

Americans overwhelmingly don’t just disagree with this idea of a resilient economy, they vehemently disagree. And Kroger may have just delivered one of the clearest warning signs yet. The American people have spoken: with their grocery carts, just as a start.  Eurodollar University's conversation w/Steve Van Metre ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------- W...

There is only one way this ends, and it's not the one everyone right now believes. That's not (just) my take. This is the majority consensus (not that you've heard it) which gets more evidence by the day. Today's CPI, yesterday's PPI, oil, 2s, bills, spreads, RBOB, etc... Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis --------------------------------------------------------------- Want to unde...

More Americans now believe unemployment will rise than at any point since April 2020. Not inflation. Unemployment. And that’s according to, yes, the Federal Reserve. At the same time, consumers believe that if they lose a job, finding another one quickly will be nearly impossible.  That fear is already showing up in what households are already doing - and how rates are really being priced.  Eurodo...