Eurodollar University

European banks find themselves back in the crosshairs of global monetary deflation, on both the receiving end and the giving end. Deutsche Bank's balance sheet offers a few clues as does the ECB's BLS going along with market shifts. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis Deutsche Bank Annual Report 2022 https://investor-relations.db.com/files/documents/annual-reports/2023/Annual-Report...

Jeff and Steve speculate on why Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen called an unscheduled meeting of the Financial Stability Oversight Committee Friday. Was it to congratulate its members for stability achieved? To begin searching for a goat to scape? Figuring out which of the clowns will be stuffed into the car for the clown show? Eurodollar University's Weekly Conversation w/Steve Van Metre Twitter:...

More huge moves in markets as the Fed releases yet more crisis-level data. Treasury bill auctions continue to pile on huge demand, surging prices and plummeting even zero yields. Repo fails jumped and foreign governments "used" an historic amount of their UST securities they had in custody with FRBNY. All of it once again showing this crisis is global and still in its earliest stage.  Eurodollar U...

Jay Powell's press conference yesterday acknowledged both parts of the 2008-style scenario present right now. But like his 2008 predecessors, he is once again falling into the same trap thinking this will save us and him from sharing the same fate(s). Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis Transcript of Chair Powell’s Press Conference Opening Statement March 22, 2023 https://www.federa...

The Fed hiked rates, no surprise, even raised consumer price forecasts and the infamous dot plots. Markets, no surprise, did not buy it one bit. there continues to be way too much which reminds us of 2008, including the confused FOMC stance. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis FOMC SEP Projections; June 24-25, 2008 https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/files/FOMC20080625SEPc...

Yet another funding crisis indication comes to us in a report from Bloomberg. FHLB co-ops are issuing debt like we've never seen before in what can only mean major bank funding problems. The only time we ever see anything like this is crisis. And this one could even be worse than those before.  Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis FHLB Financial Statements https://www.fhlb-of.com/ofw...

Another Sunday action by the Fed, this time less about regional US banks instead acknowledging major global (euro)dollar potential dysfunction. Some maybe a lot of that is coming from Switzerland. What the Fed and other central banks are up to and how Credit Suisse fits into the deflationary/inelasticity puzzle.  Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis Credit Suisse Financial Reports ht...

The deflationary outburst shook up the world and it is still spreading. Financial aftershocks are still being felt but the economic fallout hasn't even begun. Just how early on in the process are we and what happens from here? Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Talk w/Steve Van Metre Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_AIP https://www.eurodollar.university https://www.marketsinsiderpro....

Why would anyone want to buy a T-bill from the government which didn't return anything? A zero interest loan to the feds makes no sense when you can get far better at least from the Fed. Unless you consider collateral scarcity. In the context of everything going on - including emergency borrowing at 2008 levels - this continued scramble for collateral is simply consistent with how this isn't about...

The ECB hiked its interest rate benchmarks today by 50 bps. Markets everywhere basically ignored it. What happened over the past week has already left serious and lasting doubts if not persistent scars. What's priced to come next isn't more rate hikes...from anyone. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis ECB Monetary policy decisions https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/pr/date/2023/html/ec...

The curve shape we've been waiting for - and dreading - has finally shown up. This "bad steepening" indicates a 2008-style scenario is unfolding right now. Not a 2008 repeat, but the same general (and generally awful) combination of deflationary money and weak economy.  Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_AIP https://www.eurodollar.university...

We need to review the lessons of Bear Stearns and not just because it is the 15th anniversary of that firm's final day as an independent. The parallels go way beyond a single bank failure like Silicon Valley Bank. Comparing the recent meltdown in curves to what happened back then in the context of those Bear lessons is instructive and unnerving.   Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis...

Friday's bond/rates markets moves were almost indescribable. Somehow today's were even bigger. What is going on isn't just about SVB, though looking into SVB can help provide us with some clues. Either way, markets continued to hedge for the worst even after Fed, FDIC, and everything over the weekend which was supposed to calm everything down. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis SVB...

The real markets (not stocks) have been warning about ugliness for months. Now even the public can see it though policymakers and authorities will continue to deny it. Will there be more? Is the whole thing over? What markets are saying about it. Eurodollar University's Weekly Conversation w/Steve Van Metre Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_AIP https://www.eurodollar.university https://www.m...

The payroll report was supposed to be today's sole topic. Instead, it was completely overshadowed first by a global bond buying panic sparked in Asia then carrying over throughout the US trading day. Failure of Silicon Valley Bank isn't the only problem, rather a symptom of the very deflationary money curves have been warning about. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis Recession Is t...

If "inflation" has been such a killer, nowhere more so than for food, why wouldn't falling food prices be a welcome development? The answer is actually pretty easy to put together in a whole bunch of strong, persisting correlations which are warning you to be very careful.  Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_AIP https://www.eurodollar.univers...

All that financial volatility last September and October may have been the point of no return. Immediately after, curves swung from alarming to crazy. Now we see the consequences spreading throughout the real economy, hitting Asia and China reopening hype the hardest.  Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis Semiannual Monetary Policy Report to the Congress https://www.federalreserve.go...

As the Great Inflation wore on into its second decade, even politicians in Congress knew it had something to do with failure at the Fed. Demanding answers, a series of reform laws were passed including the one which commands Jay Powell's presence today. Why all this happened is as important and relevant to today as anytime in between.  Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis FOMC Meetin...

China reopening hype has been driven mostly by the mainstream media in the West. Recent developments pushed it to another level even though the entire time it was as hollow as every other global recovery scenario the past decade-plus. The Chinese government just exposed the truth - how's that for upside-down! Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis Interpreting China’s unambitious growt...

More reliable than the unemployment rate. Greater accuracy compared to payrolls. Forget Janet Yellen's bluster and misinterpreting all those Chinese PMIs. There's a much simpler, more fun way to judge then deal with macroeconomic risks.  Eurodollar University's Weekly Conversation w/Steve Van Metre Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_AIP https://www.eurodollar.university https://www.marketsins...

Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said recession isn't possible with the unemployment rate so low and hiring so robust. What she won't tell you is how little those datapoints matter in any possible recession scenario, including one recession that is extraordinarily similar to what's going on right now.  Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_AIP ht...

Between February and December, use of the Fed's primary credit soared to more than $10 billion. Who was using it and why? Several theories abound though none line up with all the monetary facts. Eurodollar University viewers won't be surprised with what does line up with those and the Fed's primary credit.  Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis The Recent Rise in Discount Window Borro...

China's reopening isn't faltering, it's booming! Or is it? The Chinese government reported big PMI numbers for February, but what do these things actually mean? I'm not sure anyone knows because it is not what everyone says. Plus, bonus breakdown of the US PMI from ISM.  Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis Zhao Qinghe, senior statistician of the Service Industry Survey Center of the...

More "hot" CPI data from Europe has renewed focus on rate hikes for what many are considering an unquenchably hot global economy. But a determined examination of the other side of the world in Asia shows why that's an enormously mistaken interpretation. Just ask these salty Texans. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey; Comments https://www.dallasfed...

The ECB wants to leave no doubt about rate hikes and inflation risks. Markets have no doubt the ECB is serious about those, and even less doubt it is wrong to be so. More data shows why, and what it means. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_AIP https://www.eurodollar.university https://www.marketsinsiderpro.com https://www. PortfolioShield.ne...