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#recession #money #recession2023 #money  #inflation #deflation #interestrates #dollar #economy #consumer #bankcrisis #japan #collateral  Bond market is getting wild. Big moves in a lot places included several many aren't paying close enough attention to. The previous selloff in LT USTs has kept focus on that one segment in this single market. Not only are there crucial warnings in the other UST cu...

#recession #money #recession2023 #money  #inflation #deflation #interestrates #dollar #economy #consumer #bankcrisis  Any amateur (like me) with a passing interest in economics knows the story: the Fed controls the economy by raising or lowering interest rates. Those then affect the banking system's credit impulse which either adds to or takes away from the general economy depending on what CBers...

#recession #money #recession2023 #money  #inflation #deflation #interestrates #dollar #economy #consumer #oil #gasoline #cisco #walmart  From Cisco to Walmart, bonds to oil. Don't call it a comeback, deflation has been here the whole time. Most just forgot about it or were distracted by the combined summertime of soft landing and oil prices. The downside of the disinflation rebound and the weaknes...

#recession #money #recession2023 #money  #inflation #deflation #interestrates #dollar #economy  The mainstream emphasis on Treasury auctions is, like so many of these things, completely misplaced. It's not just misplaced, even the worst Treasury auctions don't actually matter. Interest rates have nothing to do with how much debt the government issues. It's sad, it's not right, but that's the eurod...

#recession #money #recession2023 #money  #inflation #deflation #interestrates #dollar #economy #consumer #retail #walmart  Walmart makes a major warning. Jobless claims spike. Oil (and gas) prices aren't just crashing, the whole WTI curve just get whacked. All three of those are different angles on the same thing. What's driving bids for bonds. The deflationary recession wasn't avoided, merely del...

#recession #money #recession2023 #money  #inflation #deflation #interestrates #dollar #economy #credit #interestrates #cpi  Massive buying in global bonds sparked by the US CPI. The consumer price estimates weren't shocking or even much of a surprise, instead they confirmed a lot about economic risks as well as what has been happening in bonds of late. The selloff isn't just over; it was never wha...

#recession #money #recession2023 #money  #inflation #deflation #interestrates #dollar #economy #consumer #retail #china #europe  Bond yields dropping again. Oil curve back in contango. Is the economy resilient? Worrisome data from around the world and right where it hurts - consumers. US. China. Europe.  Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis Bloomberg: China’s Mixed Economic Data Adds...

#recession #money #recession2023 #money  #inflation #deflation #interestrates #dollar #economy #credit #interestrates  They were all lovey-dovish last month in pausing rate hikes, then last week suddenly they're all hawks again. What changed? It wasn't the economy nor the economic data derived from it. The Fed's entire worldview is exposed when markets diverge from policymakers' preferred path. Fr...

#stocks #interestrates #dollar #money #stockcrash  The full video with Mike Green is available to Eurodollar University members and DDA subscribers. To see what memberships and research subscriptions offer, go here:  https://www.eurodollar.university/memberssubscriptions Eurodollar University's guess conversations featuring Mike Green Twitter: https://twitter.com/profplum99 Twitter: https://twitte...

#recession #money #recession2023 #money #inflation #deflation #interestrates #dollar #economy #credit #interestrates #liquidity #china #banks  China's repo market nearly freezes up at the end of October and now this. Even the biggest institutions are taking unprecedented steps. On top of well-documented real estate woes, the most recent economic stats on the Chinese economy indicate right back int...

#recession #money #recession2023 #money #inflation #deflation #interestrates #dollar #economy #credit #interestrates #liquidity  Are interest rates going back up, or not? According to many Economists and central bankers (same thing), they believe so because a key metric they use has turned positive after years of being negative. Technically true, while it may be math it is hardly science. Their nu...

#recession #money #recession2023 #money #inflation #deflation #interestrates #dollar #economy #credit #interestrates #liquidity  #oil #gasoline #europe #germany #crash Oil market selloff is picking up taking gasoline prices along for the ride. The recession noises are getting louder and louder reminding us again there are no soft landings. It was pure coincidence, yet appropriate anyway Fed Chair...

#recession #money #recession2023 #money #inflation #deflation #interestrates #dollar #economy #credit #interestrates #liquidity  #oil #gasoline  Oil and gasoline prices are falling fast. While that sounds like a good thing, it is anything but. The energy market is coming to grips with the renewed downturn and recession. Big moves for the WTI curve and global bonds. It's not September any longer. ...

#recession #money #recession2023 #money #inflation #deflation #interestrates #dollar #economy #credit #interestrates #liquidity  Regulators are almost feuding with hedge fund "speculators" over something called a basis trade. The former alleges it is a huge systemic risk, and they are right though for the wrong reasons. In the latter group, supporters point out funds have become necessary balance...

#recession #money #recession2023 #money #inflation #deflation #interestrates #dollar #economy #credit #interestrates #eurodollar #income #fed #federalreserve  Blackrock official says stocks are in a really good place, not too Fed hot, not too economy cold. Total Goldilocks. Equity investors, however, tend to fall into these cyclical traps. It will just be weak enough to back of Jay Powell, but not...

#recession #money #recession2023 #money #inflation #deflation #interestrates #dollar #economy #credit #interestrates #eurodollar #income #fed #federalreserve  The last thing standing in the way of full-blown recession in the US was the jobs market. Was. October payroll report confirms the recent renewed downturn after the disinflation rebound ended is exactly what we've feared all along. A break d...

#recession #money #recession2023 #money #inflation #deflation #interestrates #dollar #economy #credit #interestrates #eurodollar #income #europe #fed #federalreserve The Fed indicated it may be done with rate hikes, but that's only the place to start. Is the yield curve about to come un-inverted? If so, what would that mean? The answers all depend on which direction it goes. Unfortunately for most...

#recession #money #recession2023 #money #inflation #deflation #interestrates #dollar #economy #credit #interestrates #eurodollar #income #europe #fed #federalreserve #ecb  Hedge fund manager Stan Druckenmiller has gotten cold feet on the economy and the financial system, taking a huge leveraged position right at the spot on the curve we've been highlighting for months. The primary reason why is be...

#recession #money #recession2023 #money #inflation #deflation #interestrates #dollar #economy #credit #interestrates #eurodollar #income #china #yuan #purge  There appears to be an honest-to-goodness (not good) purge underway across China's top leadership. This political instability appears to be driven by disagreement over the direction of the Chinese economy, currency and property sector and wha...

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#recession #money #recession2023 #money #inflation #deflation #interestrates #dollar #economy #credit #interestrates #eurodollar #income #jobs #europe #germany #yieldcurve  Is the bond selloff finally over? How would we tell? One way is to look at European specifically German rates and rate behavior. Over the last half decade, bunds et al have led US Treasuries including the similar cases in 2018...

Consumer price numbers have come back during the summer. Since US GDP was up big in Q3, quite a few seem concerned this could mark the beginning of a second "inflationary" phase. But underneath the oil surge there is overwhelming evidence disinflation remains firmly entrenched. A little too firmly, according to the markets. Eurodollar University's weekly conversation w/Steve Van Metre

#recession #money #recession2023 #money #inflation #deflation #interestrates #dollar #economy #credit #interestrates #eurodollar #collateral #repo #yieldcurve #income #jobs  The 2-year US Treasury continues to press a fundamental case for the US economy that looks nothing like the last GDP number. Despite an official narrative for a strong labor market, the evidence instead shows serious and growi...

#recession #money #recession2023 #money #inflation #deflation #interestrates #dollar #economy #credit #interestrates #eurodollar #collateral #repo #yieldcurve  US GDP surged in Q3 as the economy experiences the absolute peak of the disinflation rebound. You'd think that rates would be skyrocketing as would something like oil, both reading the big figures as confirming the need for higher rates due...

#recession #money #recession2023 #money #inflation #deflation #interestrates #dollar #economy #credit #interestrates #eurodollar #collateral #repo #yieldcurve  We've been getting major collateral warnings from all over the place recently. Financial collateral is the lifeblood of the global monetary system. That makes it incredibly important yet few have ever stopped to ponder how it all works and...